Russian invasion of Ukraine

[jagfox]

Russia still looking to take the Donbas.

 

[LongTimeLurker]

Some of the coverage has probably been a bit too upbeat of late about Ukraine's immediate prospects as opposed to the medium to longer term. What's still not clear is whether the Ukrainians actually were able to cross the Donets river NE of Kharkiv and create a bridgehead. That implies that they fixed the bridge shown below while potentially very much in range of Russian artillery and then secured the far bank from Russian forces:

Seems a bit farfetched to me unless there were maybe partisan forces left behind by the Ukrainian side that could help on the far bank.

Edited May 18, 2022 by LongTimeLurker

[Detournement]

The surrender=evacuation disinfo of the past couple of days should really have people questioning their news sources. 

[Detournement]

18 hours ago, Bairnardo said:

Possibly giving the Russians too much credit here, but I had lazily assumed that there would be a deal struck prior to their surrender for their safety.....

I think its quite apparent now those in the steelworks were willing to lay down their lives. Why pull them and allow the Russian redeployment which was prevented by the Azovstal stand off?
 

They didn't have any food and people were dying of sepsis. 

There's still no confirmation that the Azov commanders have left. 

[jagfox]

 

 

[LongTimeLurker]

2 hours ago, Detournement said:

They didn't have any food and people were dying of sepsis. 

There's still no confirmation that the Azov commanders have left. 

...in which case the Russians don't actually control the plant yet and it was about enabling the soldiers (especially those from units other than Azov) who wanted to give up to do so given the pressure from the wives in Kyiv. Zelensky is off the hook now for what happens if/when the Russians go after the rest.

[jagfox]

How Turkey spoiled NATO's historic moment with Finland, Sweden

[dorlomin]

24 minutes ago, jagfox said:

How Turkey spoiled NATO's historic moment with Finland, Sweden

Erdogan and the AKP are in deep political trouble and have elections next year. Their main threat is the left leaning CHP, they are more Europe and western leaning plus tended to be softer on Kurds (Turkish politics may have changed, Ill ask the Turks I know when I get a chance). So Erdogan being tough on this can be a line between him and the CHP (people will have to check how this is playing with them). 

I am sure this is far more about domestic politics than international relations. But that is not what I have read, this is just me putting pieces together myself. 

[welshbairn]

I realise keeping Turkey onside might have long term strategic value, and Finland and Sweden are pretty well embedded in NATO anyway, but given how uncooperative with NATO Turkey have been in recent decades and how they've been teasing Russia with Syria, Azerbaijan and Ukraine either directly or by the supply of drones etc, you'd think NATO could call their bluff and say back this or you're out, you're on your own. Pretty sure Turkey would cave pronto.

Edited May 18, 2022 by welshbairn

[jagfox]

20 minutes ago, dorlomin said:

Erdogan and the AKP are in deep political trouble and have elections next year. Their main threat is the left leaning CHP, they are more Europe and western leaning plus tended to be softer on Kurds (Turkish politics may have changed, Ill ask the Turks I know when I get a chance). So Erdogan being tough on this can be a line between him and the CHP (people will have to check how this is playing with them). 

I am sure this is far more about domestic politics than international relations. But that is not what I have read, this is just me putting pieces together myself. 

Article kind of touches on both and also that Sweden and Finland don't send certain armaments to Turkey. Also some pretty misogynistic stuff from the foreign minister.

[jagfox]

 

 

[welshbairn]

Bottled it. As @dorlomin suggested, gesture politics for domestic consumption.

[Detournement]

Unless it comes from Erdogan it means nothing. 

The IMF having been fucking with them for the past few years. He will probably want some respite from that. 

[welshbairn]

15 minutes ago, Detournement said:

Unless it comes from Erdogan it means nothing. 

The IMF having been fucking with them for the past few years. He will probably want some respite from that. 

His eccentric economic policy of lowering interest rates and flogging off his foreign currency reserves to combat inflation hasn't helped.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/5/5/turkeys-inflation-rate-soars-to-almost-70-percent-in-april

Edited May 18, 2022 by welshbairn

[RawB93]

14 hours ago, welshbairn said:

On the day one of the Donbass leaders has promised to put the Mariupol surviving soldiers on trial, this might not be the best of timing.

You gon' die inside, bwoi

Although I wonder if he'll be shipped back out to Russia?

 

[ICTChris]

Whoops

 

 

[Albus Bulbasaur]

1 hour ago, ICTChris said:

Whoops

 

 

That's incredible.

[dorlomin]

Whats at stake for Russia with respect to Finland

In essence it straddles one road to a large portion of Russias air and naval power. But what can Russia do? It has no ground forces and little else to confront Finland with. 

 

[ICTChris]

Article about those who collaborated with Russian forces and what’s happening to them now

https://www.wsj.com/articles/in-a-ukrainian-town-a-collaborator-who-worked-with-the-russians-now-faces-justice-11652972162

[jagfox]

4 hours ago, dorlomin said:

Whats at stake for Russia with respect to Finland

In essence it straddles one road to a large portion of Russias air and naval power. But what can Russia do? It has no ground forces and little else to confront Finland with. 

 

Also most of its nuclear arsenal apparently.