First to get back

[Strathman]

Following on from next to go which team do you think will be first to return after relegation to non league?

Contenders

East Stirling    Appear to be a decent side but without really challenging for the league title. Would need big cash injection

Berwick Rangers   Improved a bit last year but very similar to East Stirling. Would also need big cash injection.

Brechin City   Had a good first season in the Highland League but kept losing the big games including the cup replay with Darvel. If they can improve the current squad they will be there and there about next season.

Cowdenbeath    First season in the Lowland League will be crucial. Suspect there will not be an outstanding team next season so again if they can improve the squad they might just contend. The Lowland League is bound to get stronger so they would likely have to win in the first couple of seasons.

It could be none of these four will be the first. One possibility could be Elgin City. Might be easier for them to regroup and rebalance their squad to be North based. They certainly have crowd potential if they have a winning team.

 

 

[Dan Steele]

In what is purely a 'heart over head' decision, it's The Shire for me. The first "real" game I saw as a youngster when we moved to that area ages ago. Many years later I made the journey down to Ochilview to see them lose their place to Edinburgh City and I don't think the emotional scars have healed yet. Still, could've been worse, my first game might have been at Brockville.

[Stevo Fife]

Out of that lot, Brechin for me. They'll be back. Maybe Berwick at a push. Think the rest have found their level.

[charlie king mvp]

I’m really hopeful Brechin will mount a big challenge next season.  We’ve kept most of the current squad and already added to that with a couple of decent signings.

We obviously got a good look at Darvel and they were a good side but not scarily good.  They might chuck a few quid at it if they win the playoffs but will it be as much as Kelty or Cove? I don’t know.

What I do know is our club is in a miles better position this summer than it was 12 months ago.

[Jacksgranda]

2 minutes ago, charlie king mvp said:

I’m really hopeful Brechin will mount a big challenge next season.  We’ve kept most of the current squad and already added to that with a couple of decent signings.

We obviously got a good look at Darvel and they were a good side but not scarily good.  They might chuck a few quid at it if they win the playoffs but will it be as much as Kelty or Cove? I don’t know.

What I do know is our club is in a miles better position this summer than it was 12 months ago.

I hope you're right.

I fear if City don't get back up in the next couple of seasons, they never will.

I don't think the other three will ever get back.

[Glenconner]

Problem i have with Brechin is not winning the HL but winning the playoffs.

The LL is just going to get stronger year on year.

 

[Strathman]

2 hours ago, Glenconner said:

Problem i have with Brechin is not winning the HL but winning the playoffs.

The LL is just going to get stronger year on year.

 

Fair point about the Lowland League but Bonnyrigg were hanging on against Fraserburgh who gave them a much harder game than Cowdenbeath did. Top Highland clubs are still quite strong but going forward I agree it will be much harder. Only just over a year ago since Brora beat Hearts to be fair.

[Left Back]

3 minutes ago, Strathman said:

Fair point about the Lowland League but Bonnyrigg were hanging on against Fraserburgh who gave them a much harder game than Cowdenbeath did. Top Highland clubs are still quite strong but going forward I agree it will be much harder. Only just over a year ago since Brora beat Hearts to be fair.

A one-off cup upset has no relevance.  Hearts will beat Brora 99 times out of a hundred.  That happened to be the 1.

[FairWeatherFan]

2 hours ago, Glenconner said:

Problem i have with Brechin is not winning the HL but winning the playoffs.

The LL is just going to get stronger year on year.

 

The same is about to apply to the Highland League. Banks O'Dee for Fort William this year. Next year who knows.

It's never going to have the depth of the Lowland League, but over a two legged tie: Champion v. Champion it's not going to be a walkover.

[Gordon EF]

1 hour ago, Strathman said:

Fair point about the Lowland League but Bonnyrigg were hanging on against Fraserburgh who gave them a much harder game than Cowdenbeath did. Top Highland clubs are still quite strong but going forward I agree it will be much harder. Only just over a year ago since Brora beat Hearts to be fair.

There's been 8 pyramid play-offs now and only one HL team has managed to come through (and that was Cove, who are a bit of a special case due to their cash). I'm sure more HL teams will step up from time to time but I'd expect it to continue to be the exception, especially given the expected strengthening of the LL over the next few seasons.

I suspect that first team to bounce back into the SPFL won't be one of the current four. What we've seen with Shire and Berwick so far seems to be that teams dropping down suffer a bit of a shock where they regress even further and struggle to compete, rather than 'regrouping' and competing straight away. Brechin had a very respectable first season in the HL and you'd expect them to be competitive in most seasons but as someone's already mentioned, even winning the HL is a 25% shot at promotion as things stand (12.5% going by the stats).

The LL will likely improve significantly year-on-year for a good 5-10 years as the utter dross as the bottom are flushed out and replaced with much stronger ex-junior clubs, currently at tier 5. Once things even out a bit, you'll probably see teams coming down having a better shot at going up.

Right now, and for the next few seasons, you've got the worst equipped "traditional" SPFL clubs dropping down and competing with the clubs who stepped up the quickest after making the move from the juniors. Once you get to the point where slightly bigger diddy ex-SPFL clubs (East Fife, Dumbarton, Clyde, etc) coming down to compete with the slightly diddier big ex-junior clubs (Linlithgow, Kilwinning, etc) then things might start to shift a bit more to the side of the ex-SPFL clubs.

It'll be interesting to see how Cowden get on though.

Edited May 15, 2022 by Gordon EF

[Old Fashioned Stramash]

I think out that of that list, Cowdenbeath are most likely. I think they'll adapt quite quickly to being a LL side and it could be a good level for them to rebuild as a club. Cowden should be able to beat most teams in the LL and I'd expect them to be up there with the LL playoff winners at the end of the season. 

Brechin face a much more established and competitive league to win.

Shire and Berwick just don't have enough money to compete. Even the likes of Syngenta can compete for resources and players with the Shire.

[Glenconner]

1 hour ago, Gordon EF said:

There's been 8 pyramid play-offs now and only one HL team has managed to come through (and that was Cove, who are a bit of a special case due to their cash). I'm sure more HL teams will step up from time to time but I'd expect it to continue to be the exception, especially given the expected strengthening of the LL over the next few seasons.

I suspect that first team to bounce back into the SPFL won't be one of the current four. What we've seen with Shire and Berwick so far seems to be that teams dropping down suffer a bit of a shock where they regress even further and struggle to compete, rather than 'regrouping' and competing straight away. Brechin had a very respectable first season in the HL and you'd expect them to be competitive in most seasons but as someone's already mentioned, even winning the HL is a 25% shot at promotion as things stand (12.5% going by the stats).

The LL will likely improve significantly year-on-year for a good 5-10 years as the utter dross as the bottom are flushed out and replaced with much stronger ex-junior clubs, currently at tier 5. Once things even out a bit, you'll probably see teams coming down having a better shot at going up.

Right now, and for the next few seasons, you've got the worst equipped "traditional" SPFL clubs dropping down and competing with the clubs who stepped up the quickest after making the move from the juniors. Once you get to the point where slightly bigger diddy ex-SPFL clubs (East Fife, Dumbarton, Clyde, etc) coming down to compete with the slightly diddier big ex-junior clubs (Linlithgow, Kilwinning, etc) then things might start to shift a bit more to the side of the ex-SPFL clubs.

It'll be interesting to see how Cowden get on though.

Could you see a day when the ex SPFL clubs drop further down than the LL?

 

[FairWeatherFan]

1 minute ago, Glenconner said:

Could you see a day when the ex SPFL clubs drop further down than the LL?

 

Absolutely. They've rebounded but Berwick Rangers were 12th averaging a point a game in their first season. That was in a league that was considered poor. Imagine some more Tier 6 teams taking up space and increased relegation from the LL.

[Gordon EF]

59 minutes ago, Glenconner said:

Could you see a day when the ex SPFL clubs drop further down than the LL?

 

Absolutely. I think we're probably quite a way off that yet but in 10 years time the LL could be an extremely competitive league filled with clubs getting 400-500 average crowds in decent areas for recruitment. I don't think clubs like Shire, Cowden, Albion Rovers, or Stranraer would be overly safe from relegation in a league like that. Especially if promotion / relegation between tiers 5 and 6 is opened up a bit more in the near future.

[Glenconner]

Sadly as someone who saw the last 50 years worth of Scottish football and probably a 100? different Scottish stadia from Stranraer to Aberdeen, i wont see the next 50 years.

I really love to know how this all pans out.

I admit i was pleasantly surprised at Arbroath v Inverness Caley getting 4000/5000 in for a playoff game.

Cowdenbeath v Bo'ness 2000/3000, brilliant crowd.

Is there any team out there in Scottish non league world who could attract that number of punters even in a one off outside of playing the top six teams in Scotland.

[EdinburghBlue]

3 hours ago, Glenconner said:

Could you see a day when the ex SPFL clubs drop further down than the LL?

 

IIRC there are ex-league teams as far down as tier 8 in England. So given time I’ve no doubt some ex-SPFL teams will feature at tier 6. 

[FairWeatherFan]

1 hour ago, Glenconner said:

I admit i was pleasantly surprised at Arbroath v Inverness Caley getting 4000/5000 in for a playoff game.

Cowdenbeath v Bo'ness 2000/3000, brilliant crowd.

Is there any team out there in Scottish non league world who could attract that number of punters even in a one off outside of playing the top six teams in Scotland.

I'm guessing you mean Cowdenbeath v. Bonnyrigg there.

Outside of cup competitions? 2,000+ would certainly be possible due to the playoffs. In the leagues you'd be looking for the stars to align but it could be done.

2019-20 Kelty and Bonnyrigg were chasing the Lowland League. On 29/02/2020 they played at Kelty and got 1,510. We'll never know what they reverse fixture could have brought that would have decided the title. Get a decent WoS Premier/LL title decider with the right opponents it's possible.

[Left Back]

1 hour ago, Glenconner said:

Sadly as someone who saw the last 50 years worth of Scottish football and probably a 100? different Scottish stadia from Stranraer to Aberdeen, i wont see the next 50 years.

I really love to know how this all pans out.

I admit i was pleasantly surprised at Arbroath v Inverness Caley getting 4000/5000 in for a playoff game.

Cowdenbeath v Bo'ness 2000/3000, brilliant crowd.

Is there any team out there in Scottish non league world who could attract that number of punters even in a one off outside of playing the top six teams in Scotland.

Didn’t Auchinleck Talbot get 3 or 4 thousand when they papped Ayr out of the Scottish Cup a few years back?

[andy25]

Didn’t Auchinleck Talbot get 3 or 4 thousand when they papped Ayr out of the Scottish Cup a few years back?

3500 against Ayr in 2019.

[Left Back]

19 minutes ago, andy25 said:

3500 against Ayr in 2019.

Cheers.  Have it in my head it was on live TV as well?