The Official Stephen Flynn & Mhairi Black Thread

[lichtgilphead]

20 hours ago, orfc said:

1) Not really, I was still getting election posts to my home address 5 years after I left home.

2) And I think with online registration it's easier for students to register now, especially if they had nothing much to do thanks to COVID

3) Can you not accept loads of SNP MPs are chucking the towel in because they think they'll lose and now's the best time to look for other work while they still have "standing MP" on their CV rather than the day after the get the boot?

1) What do you mean by "election posts"? If you were still getting voting cards etc, your parents must have illegally registered you at an address you no longer stayed at. If you were just getting bumph from political parties, they must have been using an out of date copy of the register.

2) Whilst it's easier to register nowadays, registration isn't the first thing on a student's mind when they move flats. In this case, you're relying on the Electoral Registration team having sent a letter to the address in question during a short window between October 2020 (when the student moved in) and mid-November 2020 (in time for registration by 1st December 2020) As the student hasn't been registered at that address before, any initial contact by Electoral Registration will have to be by snail-mail, as they won't have the student's email address linked to the property. As I have stated ad nauseum, students only tend to register when there's an election in the offing or when they are contacted by Electoral Registration. Accordingly, I stand by the claim that a lot of students will not appear on the register at their term-time address.

3) That's not the question you originally asked. You specifically asked:

On 04/07/2023 at 15:41, orfc said:

Same as what's happening with the tories. Jumping before they're pushed, seeing the writing on the wall, rats leaving a sinking ship etc etc

Or does someone have a better reason why six SNP MPs (>10% of them) have decided within a month they don't want to stand for an election that hasn't been announced yet?

I answered your question at the time, citing the SNP's desire to have prospective candidates in place in the new constituencies.

I even specifically commented at the time that you "concentrated on just one minor point in my post above and ignored the meat", referring to your ridiculous contention that the Tories had not gerrymendered the new boundaries to increase their chances of additional seats in England, whilst reducing Labour/PC representation in Wales & SNP representation in Scotland, which you have dragged out over the last few posts, culminating in you practically accusing your parents of voter registration fraud!

I have no desire to speculate on any MP's reason for choosing not to stand again, but for you to concentrate on only 6 out of 650 suggests that you have an agenda.

[Musketeer Gripweed]

I've not seen a nun cutting about in years. Maybe they took her advice.

[CarrbridgeSaintee]

11 hours ago, ICTChris said:

I see Angus MacNeill has had the whip removed for a week after clashing with the SNP chief whip, Brendan O’Hara. It is claimed that MacNeill threatened O’Hara.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-66112668
 

Half-a-story Angus should give us the full story.

[Londonwell]

On 05/07/2023 at 20:58, Trogdor said:

Blackford is an embarrassment and yesterday's man. I agree with Black but Blackford represents the worst of the party.

Bit harsh? Blackford on economics is a no from me but seemed on the right side of most arguments on social issues, no? Far worse than him in the party. In saying that the Party certainly needs a refresh so can maybe see your point there. Very much doubt he’ll go to Holyrood anyway. Non exec directorships though no doubt.

As for Black, she’ll be in the Scottish Parliament at some point no doubt, which is a far better place for her and for the SNP. 

 

[Londonwell]

2 hours ago, CarrbridgeSaintee said:

Half-a-story Angus should give us the full story.

The full story is that MacNeil is a total ballon, that’s where my money is. 

Edited July 6, 2023 by Londonwell

[DeeTillEhDeh]

On 05/07/2023 at 10:04, DublinMagyar said:

Tweets from a 15 year old schoolgirl - enlightening!

I've seen worse here.

In fact, I've posted worse here.

And I'm 56.

[DeeTillEhDeh]

45 minutes ago, Londonwell said:

Bit harsh? Blackford on economics is a no from me but seemed on the right side of most arguments on social issues, no? Far worse than him in the party. In saying that the Party certainly needs a refresh so can maybe see your point there. Very much doubt he’ll go to Holyrood anyway. Non exec directorships though no doubt.

As for Black, she’ll be in the Scottish Parliament at some point no doubt, which is a far better place for her and for the SNP. 

 

For many people Blackford is toxic - his actions around Patrick Grady, the well-documented harassment of Charles Kennedy - I could go on - an unpleasant individual who we are well shot of.

Edited July 6, 2023 by DeeTillEhDeh

[lichtgilphead]

28 minutes ago, orfc said:

registering to vote is just one click away however onerous you think it is (see https://www.ed.ac.uk/news/students/2017/register-to-vote-in-council-elections). 

 

5 hours ago, lichtgilphead said:

As I have stated ad nauseum, students only tend to register when there's an election in the offing or when they are contacted by Electoral Registration. Accordingly, I stand by the claim that a lot of students will not appear on the register at their term-time address.

I note that your example specifically relates to registering to vote at a specific election. I rest my case.

[Londonwell]

21 minutes ago, DeeTillEhDeh said:

For many people Blackford is toxic - his actions around Patrick Grady, the well-documented harassment of Charles Kennedy - I could go on - an unpleasant individual who we are well shot of.

I’m actually relatively pleased he’s for the off as well tbh, so not going to defend him too much after this but just a quick note on the Charles Kennedy point. I was asked to go help out in that campaign and I was specially told by Blackford and his team not to mention Kennedy’s personal issues on the doorsteps etc. I did however see some terrible stuff online from activists. Was there specific instances of Blackford harassing him that I’ve missed or is it just a case of he should have had better control of those who did abuse Kennedy? 

[lichtgilphead]

1 hour ago, orfc said:

It's still not the Tories gerrymandering it though however long an essay you want to type on it . Any rejigging will benefit the Tories simply because there's more voters per average in Tory voting constituencies than in any others. There's a stronger argument to be had saying not doing it is gerrymandering.

Can you provide some evidence to back up this ludicrous claim? Are you seriously using an election that gave the Tories an 80 seat majority to base this theory on?

10 minutes work shows that the 10 largest constituencies (by population) in England in 2019 were:

Isle of Wight	113,021	Con
Bristol West	99,253	Lab
West Ham	97,947	Lab
Milton Keynes South	96,363	Con
North West Cambridgeshire	94,909	Con
Sleaford and North Hykeham	94,761	Con
Bermondsey and Old Southwark	93,248	Lab
Hackney North and Stoke Newington	92,462	Lab
Manchester Central	92,247	Lab
Poplar and Limehouse	91,836	Lab

I make that 6 Labour seats and 4 Conservative. Yet, strangely, the 10 proposed new seats in England in this totally ungerrymandered reshuffle are all predicted to vote Tory.

How strange!

 

Edited to add:

A few more minutes work shows that the average population in Conservative seats is 76372, in the Green seat, it's 79057, in Labour seats it's 73768 and in LibDem seats it's 76,754.

This proves that the average LibDem or Green voting constituency is larger than the average Tory voting constituency, and the average Labour constituency is only 3.4% smaller than the average Tory constituency.

You really are having a absolute nightmare with these pathetic attempts to prove your case!

Edited July 6, 2023 by lichtgilphead

[DeeTillEhDeh]

1 hour ago, Londonwell said:

I’m actually relatively pleased he’s for the off as well tbh, so not going to defend him too much after this but just a quick note on the Charles Kennedy point. I was asked to go help out in that campaign and I was specially told by Blackford and his team not to mention Kennedy’s personal issues on the doorsteps etc. I did however see some terrible stuff online from activists. Was there specific instances of Blackford harassing him that I’ve missed or is it just a case of he should have had better control of those who did abuse Kennedy? 

It was a bloody awful campaign where he as the candidate should have done far more. It's why we had nonsense like this leaflet that clearly alluded to Kennedy's battle with alcoholism.

Brian Smith, convener of the SNP’s Skye branch, wondered online if Charles, ‘has “a problem” that stops you going to Westminster?’ Blackford stood by and let the abuse happen.

The crazy thing is that there was no need for it because the Clegg-Cameron coalition had already left Kennedy’s seat on a shoogly peg - in the aftermath of IndyRef 1 it was always going to go to the SNP (as many seats did) as the 45% Yes vote coalesced around SNP candidates. 

I think what probably is worse though is that Blackford has publicly said he was proud of the campaign - when those close to the events know this was not the case. 

Edited July 6, 2023 by DeeTillEhDeh

[Londonwell]

13 minutes ago, DeeTillEhDeh said:

It was a bloody awful campaign where he as the candidate should have done far more. It's why we had nonsense like this leaflet that clearly alluded to Kennedy's battle with alcoholism.

Brian Smith, convener of the SNP’s Skye branch, wondered online if Charles, ‘has “a problem” that stops you going to Westminster?’ Blackford stood by and let the abuse happen.

The crazy thing is that there was no need for it because the Clegg-Cameron coalition had already left Kennedy’s seat on a shoogly peg - in the aftermath of IndyRef 1 it was always going to go to the SNP (as many seats did) as the 45% Yes vote coalesced around SNP candidates. 

I think what probably is worse though is that Blackford has publicly said he was proud of the campaign - when those close to the events know this was not the case. 

Never seen that leaflet before! Aye, no great that. 

[AyrExile]

11 hours ago, Londonwell said:

Bit harsh? Blackford on economics is a no from me but seemed on the right side of most arguments on social issues, no? Far worse than him in the party. In saying that the Party certainly needs a refresh so can maybe see your point there. Very much doubt he’ll go to Holyrood anyway. Non exec directorships though no doubt.

As for Black, she’ll be in the Scottish Parliament at some point no doubt, which is a far better place for her and for the SNP. 

 

There surely can't be many more disingenuous people in politics than Blackford. One of a small band within the Snp that are coherent , literate and managed to forge a decent career in the real world. His time in the city means he will know that the Snp economic case is at the level of fag packet material. Whilst some of the social policies seem good they require the economic means to drive them. iBlackford seems keen for the country to choose independence with no financial plan. He will certainly know the risks and outcomes for when things go wrong. That certainly doesn't seem like someone wanting their best for the people 

[StellarHibee]

5 hours ago, AyrExile said:

he will know that the Snp economic case is at the level of fag packet material.

So a stronger case than the UK one then?

[AyrExile]

2 hours ago, StellarHibee said:

So a stronger case than the UK one then?

Almost ten years now since the referendum and how much progress has been made on the financial reasons for independence?

[StellarHibee]

4 minutes ago, AyrExile said:

Almost ten years now since the referendum and how much progress has been made on the financial reasons for independence?

How much progress has been made on the financial stability of the UK over the past 10 years?

[lichtgilphead]

10 hours ago, orfc said:

1) You don't half exercise yourself

2) You're comparing 1 green seat and around a dozen LD seats with 300+ Tory seats,

3) guess statistics wasn't something you studied? 

4) And yeh compared to labour a 3.4% bigger constituency when evened out of 300+ seats gives you roughly 10 extra seats that would go Tory

5) Makes no odds, it's labours win next time round

 

1) Yeah, 10 minutes work to copy and paste 2 tables from wikipedia into a spreadsheet  and work out an average was sooooooo taxing.

2) May I remind you that you said "there's more voters per average in Tory voting constituencies than in any others". Believe it or not, "any" includes the Greens & the Lib Dems. If you had said that "there's more voters per average in Tory voting constituencies than in Labour constituencies", you would have been correct. Unfortunately for you, in statistical terms as well as in evidencial terms, your statement was incorrect.

3) If you want to make this a dick-waving exercise then crack on. Trot out your statistical qualifications and I'll provide mine. Given your performance so far, though, I'm struggling to believe that you have any formal qualifications...

4) How naive! First past the post only allows one winner in a single constituency. In the largest English constituency (Isle of Wight), where most of the population are pensioners, the Tories only got 56% of the vote on a 66% turnout. That's only 37% of the electorate. The total electorate in the seat doesn't have the impact you seem to believe that it does.

You have to remember that under the UK's archaic voting system, the tories can win a landlide victory with only 44% of the vote on a 67% turnout. As I'm sure you're aware, that means that only just over 29% of the total electorate put the Tories into power in 2019. This factor has a far greater effect on the make-up of the House of Commons than an extra 2500 voters in an individual seat

5) So, we're going to get the tribute act instead of the real thing. Hold me back! An unrepresentative voting system & an unelected second chamber for party placemen. What a perfect democracy!

No wonder so many Scots want out of this festering union.

Edited July 7, 2023 by lichtgilphead
I misnumbered the list!

[AyrExile]

1 hour ago, StellarHibee said:

How much progress has been made on the financial stability of the UK over the past 10 years?

One is the sixth largest economy in the world and the other exists on a piece of A4 paper. Bit of a stretch to compare  

[Granny Danger]

2 hours ago, StellarHibee said:

How much progress has been made on the financial stability of the UK over the past 10 years?

Well however financially stable/unstable the U.K. might be you certainly cannot blame this guy.

He didn’t get 10 years.

Or 10 months

Or 10 weeks…

[Antlion]

21 minutes ago, AyrExile said:

One is the sixth largest economy in the world and the other exists on a piece of A4 paper. Bit of a stretch to compare  

Aren’t we comparing a piece of A4 paper to some lies on the side of a bus?