The Next Five Years

[Desp]

I think if Clarke takes us to the World Cup in 2026, I think he'd bow out after that.  A decent way to leave it you'd have to say.  With the knowledge that, given we're co-hosting in 2028 and the path to qualification appears to be helpful in the extreme, it would give the new boss a gimme (almost!) in qualifying for their first tournament.  

[Donathan]

14 minutes ago, Desp said:

I think if Clarke takes us to the World Cup in 2026, I think he'd bow out after that.  A decent way to leave it you'd have to say.  With the knowledge that, given we're co-hosting in 2028 and the path to qualification appears to be helpful in the extreme, it would give the new boss a gimme (almost!) in qualifying for their first tournament.  

If that was to happen then I’d say you give it Moyesy for a couple of years to squeeze another tournament out of the current nucleus. McGinn, Robertson, Tierney, McGregor, McTominay, McKenna, Dykes, Adams, Christie and Hendry all have a decent chance to still be around for euro 2028, and it would be a shame to bring a younger “project” type manager in after 2026 to exile all these guys. Moyes on a 2 year deal then a younger guy after 2028 to hit the reset button. 

[2426255]

1 minute ago, Donathan said:

Moyes on a 2 year deal then a younger guy after 2028 to hit the reset button. 

Isn't the idea of the squad evolution and future proofing to prevent the need for hitting the rest button? 

Quote

I think a squad should always be a work in progress, because otherwise you end up with everybody growing old together. So your squad should always be a work in progress. You are always looking to see how you can improve, whether that is from the pool of personnel I have got at the moment or adding one or two to the current pool. We are always looking to improve. We want to qualify for the next tournament and the next one and the next one and the next one. We don’t want to go through a run of 20 years where we are not qualifying for tournaments again. The evolution of the squad is important.

Steve Clarke

https://www.scotsman.com/sport/football/steve-clarke-open-to-new-scotland-call-ups-as-ben-doak-prospects-addressed-amid-elliot-anderson-u-turn-4335047

[forameus]

If he's still around as the window for World Cup 2026 comes to a close, I don't think there's any chance he steps away ahead of a "home" tournament.  Memories of 2021 probably still linger, and even without that probably burning need to right those wrongs, you'd still not be able to turn down taking your side out in front of a full Hampden at a tournament.  

Ideally he'll come into that having led us to the Euros in 20201 and 2024, narrowly failed to get us to the 2022 World Cup, but got us to 2026.  If that's the case, a final tilt at a home tournament - unless it goes badly, badly wrong - would be a nice end to what would end up being our most successful period.

Maybe we look to getting someone else in alongside Clarke post 2024 like Iceland did with a view to them taking over all being well.  

[Elgin Macca]

The thought of this squad of shaggers breaking up in the future is heart-breaking........ 

[Donathan]

1 hour ago, 2426255 said:

Isn't the idea of the squad evolution and future proofing to prevent the need for hitting the rest button? 

https://www.scotsman.com/sport/football/steve-clarke-open-to-new-scotland-call-ups-as-ben-doak-prospects-addressed-amid-elliot-anderson-u-turn-4335047

13 of the 24 players in the squad this week are between 26-30. They’re in the exact age group that will be closing in on international retirement around the time of euro 2028. The good news is we only have four players in the squad that are 31+, the remaining 7 are 25 or younger.

 

Kieran Tierney also sits in this age bracket albeit not in the squad this time due to injury.

 

Obviously in an ideal world we’d have a perfectly distributed squad with players of all ages from late teens to mid 30s so that you can just bring in a young player or two at a time, but it just so happens that we’ve got a golden generation of players born in the mid-1990s, so unfortunately a hard reset probably is going to be necessary and it might mean unofficially waving the white flag on a tournament or two to get the next lot of players integrated. I wouldn’t put a lot of money on us being at the 2030 World Cup.

 

This happens to all the top countries. Germany have been w**k since about 2018, Spain were horrendous between their euro 2012 win and a few years ago, England had some shocking sides under Roy Hodgson, Netherlands failed to qualify for 2-3 tournaments straight, Belgium and Croatia probably next to have a down turn. 

[2426255]

4 hours ago, Donathan said:

13 of the 24 players in the squad this week are between 26-30. They’re in the exact age group that will be closing in on international retirement around the time of euro 2028. The good news is we only have four players in the squad that are 31+, the remaining 7 are 25 or younger.

 

Kieran Tierney also sits in this age bracket albeit not in the squad this time due to injury.

 

Obviously in an ideal world we’d have a perfectly distributed squad with players of all ages from late teens to mid 30s so that you can just bring in a young player or two at a time, but it just so happens that we’ve got a golden generation of players born in the mid-1990s, so unfortunately a hard reset probably is going to be necessary and it might mean unofficially waving the white flag on a tournament or two to get the next lot of players integrated. I wouldn’t put a lot of money on us being at the 2030 World Cup.

 

This happens to all the top countries. Germany have been w**k since about 2018, Spain were horrendous between their euro 2012 win and a few years ago, England had some shocking sides under Roy Hodgson, Netherlands failed to qualify for 2-3 tournaments straight, Belgium and Croatia probably next to have a down turn. 

Nah mate, the future proofing is about involving younger players in squads and showing the pathway - some ready to go now such as Ferguson, Patterson, Hickey, Gilmour - even Elliot Anderson despite how it's panned out and some with an eye to the future Robbie McCrorie, Ben Doak, Josh Doig, Calvin Ramsay and the three boys from the under-21's called up in June (Tommy Conway, Leon King and Lewis Fiorini). 

This is something Steve Clarke has discussed at length. Scotland are trying specifically to avoid a hard reset, there's plenty on that.

Edited October 10, 2023 by 2426255

[2426255]

I've been tracking the average age of the Scotland squad for the last year. The March squad is the oldest it's ever been during Steve Clarke tenure at 28.2, the mean squad age is 26.7. That's partly because Hanley and Gordon have returned to the squad, but one of the effects of selecting a consistent squad is they all age together.

It's not something to be concerned about, just worth keeping an eye on. Maybe we'll see some regeneration during the Nations League.

Edited March 14 by 2426255

[ahemps]

1 hour ago, 2426255 said:

I've been tracking the average age of the Scotland squad for the last year. The March squad is the oldest it's ever been during Steve Clarke tenure at 28.2, the mean squad age is 26.7. That's partly because Hanley and Gordon have returned to the squad, but one of the effects of selecting a consistent squad is they all age together.

It's not something to be concerned about, just worth keeping an eye on. Maybe we'll see some regeneration during the Nations League.

I think apart from Gordon I am not sure there are any other obvious players who may not feature after the Euros. It would be good to bring through some younger players for the nations league. 

[2426255]

Just now, ahemps said:

I think apart from Gordon I am not sure there are any other obvious players who may not feature after the Euros. It would be good to bring through some younger players for the nations league. 

I believe he factors it into his thinking around selection. It's a deliberate choice he has made with the reasons listed below.

Quote

I could have boosted the squad with one or two of the younger ones. But I think the Under-21s should stick together and try and qualify out of their section. Rather than calling some of them up to train with us, it’s better that they go with Scot Gemmill and play. If I lose another couple of players then I may need to dip down to Scot’s squad and take one or two of the younger ones, but hopefully I won’t have to.

Steve Clarke

https://www.thescottishsun.co.uk/sport/12203925/craig-gordon-euro-2024-scotland-steve-clarke-hearts-games/

[RandomGuy.]

I've been kind of thinking that this will be last tournament for Gordon, Cooper, Hanley, Jack, McLean and Armstrong, and that after this they'll be phased out over the 12-18 months after the Euros, to varying degrees depending on whos ready to step up.

[2426255]

12 minutes ago, RandomGuy. said:

I've been kind of thinking that this will be last tournament for Gordon, Cooper, Hanley, Jack, McLean and Armstrong, and that after this they'll be phased out over the 12-18 months after the Euros, to varying degrees depending on whos ready to step up.

Not sure exactly how it will happen, but it'll be phased one way or another. Steve Clarke made it clear he doesn't want to go down the 'Hard Reset' road. I suppose how it happens could also depend upon how long Clarke stays in the job. 

[RandomGuy.]

6 minutes ago, 2426255 said:

Not sure exactly how it will happen, but it'll be phased one way or another. Steve Clarke made it clear he doesn't want to go down the 'Hard Reset' road. I suppose how it happens could also depend upon how long Clarke stays in the job. 

I think he'll maybe want to go to a World Cup? So he'll stick around and try for that i reckon, but i dont know what happens if we dont qualify.

[Skyline Drifter]

33 minutes ago, RandomGuy. said:

I've been kind of thinking that this will be last tournament for Gordon, Cooper, Hanley, Jack, McLean and Armstrong, and that after this they'll be phased out over the 12-18 months after the Euros, to varying degrees depending on whos ready to step up.

I don't think you're far wrong.

100% last tournament for Gordon if he makes it. He's 41 FFS!

Age-wise I think the other five could all potentially go to the next World Cup. They'll all be 32 by Germany and 34 by the time of a next world cup (and Cooper will be nearly 35). It's not that old for an outfield player these days but to an extent that depends on their position and what's coming through behind them.

Cooper's barely getting a game at his club these days and has never at any point been a 1st choice for Scotland. Jack's been injured for most of the last 3 years. You'd imagine they won't go to the next tournament. Germany may be the end for them, particularly if neither makes it as may well be the case if there are no injuries in the rest of the squad.

Neither McLean nor Armstrong are first choice for Scotland either, though both remain very important. I wonder if either may choose to step aside themselves when not starting regularly for their country anyway in positions we have plenty of emerging talent in.

Hanley on the other hand was very much first choice for Clark pre-achilles injury. He's not back at full fitness yet but assuming he gets there I think he'll go into the middle of the defence and there's no real reason he can't continue another couple of years. If he's properly fit I think he's the least likely to be phased out, certainly if Clarke continues in the position.

[RandomGuy.]

5 minutes ago, Skyline Drifter said:

I don't think you're far wrong.

100% last tournament for Gordon if he makes it. He's 41 FFS!

Age-wise I think the other five could all potentially go to the next World Cup. They'll all be 32 by Germany and 34 by the time of a next world cup (and Cooper will be nearly 35). It's not that old for an outfield player these days but to an extent that depends on their position and what's coming through behind them.

I wont lie, i struggle with ages and knowing whats "expected" for someone to stop playing at the highest level. Im of the generation who grew up playing FIFA and Football Manager and being repeatedly told that anything over 30 is in rapid decline.

[Skyline Drifter]

21 minutes ago, RandomGuy. said:

I wont lie, i struggle with ages and knowing whats "expected" for someone to stop playing at the highest level. Im of the generation who grew up playing FIFA and Football Manager and being repeatedly told that anything over 30 is in rapid decline.

Pepe's still playing for Portugal and in the Champions League at 41! Ronaldo's 39.

Ok, they are outliers but with improved diets and recovery, sports science these days it's clear that top footballers are staying at the top much longer than they did 30 years ago. In my day you were done at the top level by the time you hit 35. Players are adding as much as 4 or 5 years to careers now with better lifestyle choices. There's no real reason for concern if 6 of our squad are 34 by the time of the next World Cup.

[craigkillie]

I wouldn't be surprised if Gordon thinks he can keep on playing. He's signed a new contract at Hearts so he's going to be active in the SPFL until at least 2025 already.

[Virtual Insanity]

It seems to me more likely than not that, if he wants to keep playing, Gordon would still be one of the best three keepers in the country at the age of 43.

[2426255]

A little bit more to this than the post originally quoting it. I don't have a strong personal opinion on it to be honest, but we've seen before that if a player is clearly better than what we have available then Steve Clarke will take him for the Senior team - therefore I'd say he doesn't see any of the current u-21 squad as better than what we have available to us and next to no chance of any of them (Doig, Conway) making it into the Euro-2024 squad in the summer. 

Quote

As you look at this squad, it’s quite short. We only have 21 outfield players and a lot of them are defenders.

I could have boosted it with one or two of the younger ones, but I want to re-emphasise the fact that while I have my eye on the younger group - I think the under-21s should stick together and try and qualify out of their section (for the Under-21 Euro 2025 finals) rather than calling some of them up to train with us, it’s better that they go with Scot Gemmill and play, obviously if I go into this weekend and lose another couple of players then I may need to dip down to Scott’s squad and take one or two of the younger ones, but hopefully I won’t have to.

I’m not sure there is that much value in taking them to Euro 2024, if you are taking them just to be there and experience it. It might be better just to keep them a little bit hungry and let them think ‘there is the carrot for the World Cup 2026’. That’s what the current 21's squad should be looking at: the next tournament, can they try and be involved in that?

Steve Clarke

https://www.heraldscotland.com/sport/24181081.lewis-ferguson-given-scotland-reality-check-serie-giants-circle/

 

[2426255]

Just a bit on the future and age profile of the National team. Something previously discussed here:

On 14/03/2024 at 11:19, 2426255 said:

I've been tracking the average age of the Scotland squad for the last year. The March squad is the oldest it's ever been during Steve Clarke tenure at 28.2, the mean squad age is 26.7. That's partly because Hanley and Gordon have returned to the squad, but one of the effects of selecting a consistent squad is they all age together.

It's not something to be concerned about, just worth keeping an eye on. Maybe we'll see some regeneration during the Nations League.

and here in more detail here:

https://forum.pieandbovril.com/topic/205640-youth-teams-discussion/?do=findComment&comment=16030745

Quote

Then again, I look at this group of players – and I don’t want to make a big point to it – but there are some who are starting to age a little bit. At some stage there has to be a refresh, which is a bit of a nod to Ben Doak for this one. We need to start thinking that maybe we have to change in the future. It seems that this group of players, the vast majority of them, deserve to be going to a major tournament.

Steve Clarke

https://www.edinburghnews.scotsman.com/sport/steve-clarke-reveals-ben-doaks-scotland-chances-and-why-he-didnt-speak-to-liverpool-manager-jurgen-klopp-4638930

Quote

If you look through the squad, there are a number of players who are 32 or 33 so will be 34 or 35 come the next tournament. Craig Gordon will be 43! So, there will be more evolution in the future, no matter who the head coach is. Ben Doak can be one going forward, so let’s have a look.

Steve Clarke

https://www.glasgowtimes.co.uk/sport/24344308.clarke-satisfied-scotland-refuseniks-will-regret-choice/?ref=rss&utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter