Final positions, playoffs and such...

[A Diamond For Me]

8 minutes ago, invergowrie arab said:

Do they need to work around New Douglas Park?

Maybe.  Both Clyde and Hamilton were in (and were relegated via) the playoffs last season, so they've a template they can just use again if it comes to that, surely.

[TxRover]

A quick peek into the Premiership and League One tells us:

Livi are joining the Championship next year, with Ross County and St. Johnstone in the best position to get another home match at seasons end, although none of the Dons, Motherwell or Hibs are excluded from that possibility.

Falkirk are coming up, with the Accies certain to be in the playoffs. Meanwhile, Alloa are extremely likely participants, but Montrose are suddenly looking vulnerable to being caught by either a staggering Cove or a rolling Kelty...although it would take some doing by Kelty! However, as Montrose's showing at Edinburgh City today shows, it's still possible. This weekend will clarify a lot with the top six playing each other (Falkirk v Kelty, Montrose v Accies and Cove v Alloa).

[Heid_The_Baw]

On 14/04/2024 at 08:47, Diamond1924 said:

I hate when other fans give this excuse but each game against Ayr we have been absolutely stinking. Obviously Ayr did something to stop us but the majority of your goals have come from individual defensive errors. Of course you need to put away the chances and Dowds did just that so fair play

Its OK you have made up for it against my lot.......
We break a 23 year long hoodoo against ICT, and a long standing losing streak at Somerset, only to gain a new hoodoo against Airdrie!
TBH Airdrie are one of the better football playing sides in the league.

 

[Hampden Diehard]

On 11/04/2024 at 21:44, parsforlife said:

Educate yourself 

Get your punctuation correct and resubmit.

[Specky Ginger]

On 14/04/2024 at 17:49, AUcal said:

Yeah that's where I looked initially, but unless I'm being daft, there's no dates listed for anything other than the premiership play-off final.

It's absolutely embarrassing and shameful that the SPFL don't have the dates finalised for the playoffs by now.

Fans are trying to plan work shifts, child care etc while Doncaster and his cohorts are sitting with their thumbs up their arses.

[AllanJM]

1 hour ago, Specky Ginger said:

It's absolutely embarrassing and shameful that the SPFL don't have the dates finalised for the playoffs by now.

Fans are trying to plan work shifts, child care etc while Doncaster and his cohorts are sitting with their thumbs up their arses.

I assume it's because the 2nd leg of the final is likely to take place the day after the Scottish Cup final so they'll need to move the dates if Aberdeen win on Sunday.  I suspect we would switch to the semi-final being Friday/Friday like it was last season (the premiership finished later due to the world cup break).

[Guest]

46 minutes ago, AllanJM said:

I assume it's because the 2nd leg of the final is likely to take place the day after the Scottish Cup final so they'll need to move the dates if Aberdeen win on Sunday.  I suspect we would switch to the semi-final being Friday/Friday like it was last season (the premiership finished later due to the world cup break).

The games Aberdeen could be involved in, are the only ones with a date. Final 23rd and 26th May. 

Im in the same boat of requiring time off and needing the dates asap.

[AllanJM]

28 minutes ago, Halbeath Raith Rover said:

The games Aberdeen could be involved in, are the only ones with a date. Final 23rd and 26th May. 

Im in the same boat of requiring time off and needing the dates asap.

Good point.  They would of course have to move it if Aberdeen were in both though.  

If the final was put back a week, I still think they'd go with the semi being Friday/Friday rather than Tuesday/Friday so may still be the reason for not announcing yet.

 

[TxRover]

2 hours ago, Specky Ginger said:

It's absolutely embarrassing and shameful that the SPFL don't have the dates finalised for the playoffs by now.

Fans are trying to plan work shifts, child care etc while Doncaster and his cohorts are sitting with their thumbs up their arses.

21 minutes ago, Halbeath Raith Rover said:

The games Aberdeen could be involved in, are the only ones with a date. Final 23rd and 26th May. 

Im in the same boat of requiring time off and needing the dates asap.

One can assume two things; planning concerns and the SPFL don’t give a flying f*** about anything other than the top league.

My best bets are QF Tuesday/Friday (7 May and 10 May) and SF Tuesday/Friday (14 May and 17 May). Since Finals are down for Wed, 23 May and Saturday, 26 May and the League ends Friday, 3 May, there isn’t much other choice.

Each of those days could slide a day either way with minor impact, but otherwise that’s about the only option. However, we know they won’t go Wed/Sat due to the Premiership matches on Saturdays, and the only other item on the SPFL Key Date list is the Champions League 2nd Leg on 7/8 May. Given that, the only one of those dates that might change would be the QF to the Monday, 6 May…and I don’t see any of the six possibly involved teams causing that.

[Fuctifano]

Just realised I never posted latest probabilities etc:

For title- DU 98.8% Raith 1.2%

For promotion playoffs the model won't predict a large enough GD overturn for either Dunfermline or Ayr to get in at this stage.

For avoiding 9th - as it stands

An ICT win tonight moves that QP number into the mid 90s, a defeat lowers it to around 70 and draw keeps it around the same.

[Zanetti]

48 minutes ago, Fuctifano said:

Just realised I never posted latest probabilities etc:

For title- DU 98.8% Raith 1.2%

For promotion playoffs the model won't predict a large enough GD overturn for either Dunfermline or Ayr to get in at this stage.

For avoiding 9th - as it stands

An ICT win tonight moves that QP number into the mid 90s, a defeat lowers it to around 70 and draw keeps it around the same.

I agree that we're definitely favourites for 9th and fully expect that to happen, but I'm assuming these probabilities don't account for teams that have nothing to play for potentially taking their foot off the gas a bit and resting players?

[Fuctifano]

5 minutes ago, Zanetti said:

I agree that we're definitely favourites for 9th and fully expect that to happen, but I'm assuming these probabilities don't account for teams that have nothing to play for potentially taking their foot off the gas a bit and resting players?

Yeah intangibles like that and injuries can't be factored in without me having to make a guess so I just leave it as is. 

[DiegoDiego]

1 hour ago, Zanetti said:

I agree that we're definitely favourites for 9th and fully expect that to happen, but I'm assuming these probabilities don't account for teams that have nothing to play for potentially taking their foot off the gas a bit and resting players?

Is there any data on this effect, either in Scottish football or in general? I'd be quite interested to see if it's a significant effect or if it's just conventional wisdom like "form goes out the window in a derby" which doesn't really hold much water. 

[da_no_1]

I'll no relaxed until we're completely safe. Decades of following the Pars has taught me not to take anything for granted. 

[Diamonds are Forever]

35 minutes ago, DiegoDiego said:

Is there any data on this effect, either in Scottish football or in general? I'd be quite interested to see if it's a significant effect or if it's just conventional wisdom like "form goes out the window in a derby" which doesn't really hold much water. 

 

Depends what bit you mean. It is undoubtedly true that teams rest players. I remember a while back quite literally playing an Under 19s team against St Johnstone before a play-off and we lost 4-0. But more recently, last year in the last game before the play-offs we rested 5 players, and most of the rest were subbed during the game. We still won, but that was against Edinburgh City who had began their decline and had nothing to play for. The year before in the last game against Peterhead we changed 10 players. We drew 1-1 at home and given the form we had been on (20 game unbeaten run) and how poor Peterhead were we'd have won that game with a full team. Neither game mattered for either team so made no difference in the end, but that's 2 managers, Murray and McCabe, who are probably going to be in these play-offs with a history of making huge changes.

If we have play-offs sealed by the last game there's no way we're playing our best 11 for the whole game. The only reason could be that we want to finish 3rd so if that's a possibility then we might, but I still don't think we would. Whether it would actually affect the scoreline is an unknown obviously, but it would make sense that it would given the size of our squad.

Edited April 19 by Diamonds are Forever

[Nightmare]

42 minutes ago, DiegoDiego said:

Is there any data on this effect, either in Scottish football or in general? I'd be quite interested to see if it's a significant effect or if it's just conventional wisdom like "form goes out the window in a derby" which doesn't really hold much water. 

I had an idea along these lines ago a few years back when I was more into my gambling; to back teams who 'had to' win (eg. a win would secure a title, survival, European place, whatever) and to bet against teams who were already set in a position (champions, relegated), under the the same assumption above that they would have downed tools.

I was comfortably in profit doing this in continental leagues (Spain, Italy, France, etc) and significantly down in Scotland & England over a period of a few years before I gave it up. This might have been a case of complete luck in the way things fell for me, but I'd suggest that teams with nothing to play for don't take their foot off the gas as much in the UK as they do in other countries. There might be actual studies done which contain data that disproves this over time (I would guess that there's a decent chance it would all balance out given enough variance), but just my take from betting on a roughly similar proposal to the post in question over a few years.

[Mr November]

6 hours ago, Diamonds are Forever said:

 

Depends what bit you mean. It is undoubtedly true that teams rest players. I remember a while back quite literally playing an Under 19s team against St Johnstone before a play-off and we lost 4-0. But more recently, last year in the last game before the play-offs we rested 5 players, and most of the rest were subbed during the game. We still won, but that was against Edinburgh City who had began their decline and had nothing to play for. The year before in the last game against Peterhead we changed 10 players. We drew 1-1 at home and given the form we had been on (20 game unbeaten run) and how poor Peterhead were we'd have won that game with a full team. Neither game mattered for either team so made no difference in the end, but that's 2 managers, Murray and McCabe, who are probably going to be in these play-offs with a history of making huge changes.

If we have play-offs sealed by the last game there's no way we're playing our best 11 for the whole game. The only reason could be that we want to finish 3rd so if that's a possibility then we might, but I still don't think we would. Whether it would actually affect the scoreline is an unknown obviously, but it would make sense that it would given the size of our squad.

We went into the last day level on points with Alloa last season and could have finished 3rd or 4th but still changed the team a fair bit as you say, so I think McCabe would do the same again. 

[Diamonds are Forever]

8 minutes ago, Mr November said:

We went into the last day level on points with Alloa last season and could have finished 3rd or 4th but still changed the team a fair bit as you say, so I think McCabe would do the same again. 

 

That's true, forgot about that. Explains why we only changed half the team. Plus Gal was going for top goalscorer so started. Safe to assume he'd have rested most of the team otherwise.

Edited April 19 by Diamonds are Forever

[TxRover]

So, that's an interesting result for the top AND the bottom. A DU win still cements it, with a 35 goal advantage...a draw or a loss makes for an amusing week. On the bottom, Queen's Park get a lifeline thrown to them, lets see what they can do tomorrow. The huge sigh you heard was 5-7 breathing again.

Edited April 20 by TxRover

[Ranaldo Bairn]

1 minute ago, TxRover said:

So, that's an interesting result for the top AND the bottom. A Dundee win still cements it, with a 35 goal advantage...a draw or a loss makes for an amusing week. On the bottom, Queen's Park get a lifeline thrown to them, lets see what they can do tomorrow. The huge sigh you heard was 5-7 breathing again.

What?