Third place, four point watch

[Monkey Tennis]

On Sportsound, Lyndon Dykes still seemed to think we had a faint chance of sneaking through.

Nobody had the heart to tell him.

[JS_FFC]

That late equaliser is a killer for Croatia. They need all kinds of snookers now.

 

If my calculations are correct they need England to beat Slovenia by 3+ goals, either Denmark to beat Serbia or Serbia to win by 3+ goals, Portugal to beat Georgia and Turkiye to beat Czechia.

[An Absolute Imposter]

It's looking more and more likely that Hungary will qualify for last 16.

Getting more and more angry every passing moment at Scotland's never ending ability to give us some hope of better times only to find new and ever  increasing excruciating ways to drag us down into the pit of despair.

It's shite being Scottish.

But, every day I thank my long departed parents for staying in Glasgow when they could have moved abroad. Wouldn't want to be any other nationality for all our shortcomings as a people.

[Skyline Drifter]

3 hours ago, An Absolute Imposter said:

It's looking more and more likely that Hungary will qualify for last 16.

I'm not sure its 'likely' yet. They were as good as out before that last ditch Italy goal. They only have any shot because they scored in the 100th minute and Italy in the 98th. Italy improved their position by scoring the equaliser but they would have almost certainly have gone through with a 1-0 loss anyway. 3 pts and a -1 GD was better than Hungary and would be better than Group F as long as Georgia dont beat Portugal. It might still be better than any of the other 3 groups also. 

Hungary are above Croatia so they need another 2 pt 3rd place team or a 3pt one with absolutely rotten gd.

Their best chance now lies with England. If England beat Slovenia (which they should)  Hungary are through. If Slovenia get a pt 3rd in Group C finish above Hungary.

3rd in Group D is already near certain to better Hungary. The only way it doesnt happen is if Netherlands beat Austria by five!

Its likely 3rd in Group E will also better Hungary. If either of the last games is drawn they definitely will. Even if both games produce a winner Hungary need a pair of big wins to harm two teams GD's (not that big if Ukraine are one of the losers).

Obviously Group F also gives Hungary a shot. They need Georgia not to beat Portugal AND Czechia not to beat Turkey by one or two goals.

They'll go through if England win or the Czechs dont win narrowly. 

 

On a separate note, Croatia getting a point tonight pretty much finishes any hope we might have had that holding on for the draw last night would have got us through. So we can feel slighy less bad about the cavalier stuff. We did need the win. (Technically we still could have gone through on 2 pts but we'd need Czschia and Georgia to both lose AND England to beat Slovenia by five AND Denmark to beat Serbia (or Serbia to beat Denmark by five). Thats not happening!)

Also, tonights results confirm that anyone who does get 4 points will go through (unless the two games in Group E are drawn and Ukraine finish 4th on 4)

Edited June 25 by Skyline Drifter

[2426255]

21 minutes ago, Skyline Drifter said:

On a separate note, Croatia getting a point tonight pretty much finishes any hope we might have had that holding on for the draw last night would have got us through. So we can feel slighy less bad about the cavalier stuff. We did need the win. 

I think Scotland had to go for it. Did Hungary go for it? I can't even remember them going on the front foot and they were in exactly the same boat as us, but perhaps they did.

I find it funny that we are being criticised for being defensive (playing a back-3) while Hungary are being credited as playing a smart game sitting on the counter (also playing a back-3). Rossi outsmarted Clarke tactically, had his number etc.

I asked this in the other thread, but if Hungary had lost wouldn't they be getting it tight from their fans saying it's a must win game you have to be on the front foot, hammer and tongs etc? If we had played like Hungary and lost our support would be worse than they've been today if that's possible. 

Edited June 24 by 2426255

[DiegoDiego]

1 hour ago, 2426255 said:

I think Scotland had to go for it. Did Hungary go for it? I can't even remember them going on the front foot and they were in exactly the same boat as us, but perhaps they did.

I find it funny that we are being criticised for being defensive (playing a back-3) while Hungary are being credited as playing a smart game sitting on the counter (also playing a back-3). Rossi outsmarted Clarke tactically, had his number etc.

I asked this in the other thread, but if Hungary had lost wouldn't they be getting it tight from their fans saying it's a must win game you have to be on the front foot, hammer and tongs etc? If we had played like Hungary and lost our support would be worse than they've been today if that's possible. 

It is possible for both teams to have played it incorrectly. Somebody has to end up third regardless.

[Skyline Drifter]

1 hour ago, 2426255 said:

I think Scotland had to go for it. Did Hungary go for it? I can't even remember them going on the front foot and they were in exactly the same boat as us, but perhaps they did.

I find it funny that we are being criticised for being defensive (playing a back-3) while Hungary are being credited as playing a smart game sitting on the counter (also playing a back-3). Rossi outsmarted Clarke tactically, had his number etc.

I asked this in the other thread, but if Hungary had lost wouldn't they be getting it tight from their fans saying it's a must win game you have to be on the front foot, hammer and tongs etc? If we had played like Hungary and lost our support would be worse than they've been today if that's possible. 

 

36 minutes ago, DiegoDiego said:

It is possible for both teams to have played it incorrectly. Somebody has to end up third regardless.

I think Hungary got very lucky in exactly the same way that we didnt! It was a tight game of few chances. The teams were fairly evenly matched and it would almost certainly have been a 0-0 draw if it had been played MD 1 or 2. It only didnt because injury time became cavalier end to end stuff for obvious reasons.

Hungary were about 10 seconds from going home abject in 4th with 1 pt and 1 goal from 3 matches. A crazy breakaway goal combined with Italy's 98th minute equaliser tonight and they are slightly better than 50% to get through. It goes from crisis to mission achieved in one kick.

I'm gutted about finishing bottom again. I dont however get all reactionary about it or start second guessing everything. We were without at least three first choices for the tournament and McGinn (& possibly McGregor) are off form into the mix. We can nit pick bits and pieces. I'd have started Gilmour and Hanley against Germany for instance ahead of Christie and Porteous. Would it have changed the outcome? Doubtful. I would have given serious thought to going back four v Hungary. Without Tierney much of ghe reason for a five is gone anyway. Perhaps Christie or Conway / Shankland could have come in instead? Again though, it's pure speculation if it would have changed anything. McKenna didnt do anything wrong. 

We did ok v Hungary and passed them to death first half particularly but we lacked any real invention. I thought we were much the better team first half but ultimately we didnt trouble them and they had the best chance, hitting the bar. Bad injury apart nothing much happened 2nd half till the chaos of the last 10 mins or so. Armstrong's penalty appeal, Hanley's shot (offside?), their header grazing wide (offside?), they hit the post when easier to score then that mad crazy winner. If we get the penalty and Christie or McGinn (presumably) scores it then Clarke's the hero who won the tactical war and Rossi's out of a job at Hungary. Small margins.

Clarke's post match comments were a little sour but I'll forgive him as a man beset by problems who almost got us there anyway. No question for me that he should stay if he wants to do so.

Edited June 25 by Skyline Drifter

[Neilfs]

In such games where both have to win, whoever has the nerve to sit back and let the other over commit at the end is more like to go through.

It's always easier to score on the break. It just takes a lot of nerve and hope that the other team over commits. 

[Skyline Drifter]

23 hours ago, Skyline Drifter said:

Its likely 3rd in Group E will also better Hungary. If either of the last games is drawn they definitely will. Even if both games produce a winner Hungary need a pair of big wins to harm two teams GD's (not that big if Ukraine are one of the losers).

Obviously Group F also gives Hungary a shot. They need Georgia not to beat Portugal AND Czechia not to beat Turkey by one or two goals.

They'll go through if England win or the Czechs dont win narrowly. 

So if last night's Italian equaliser was great news for Hungary today's games werent. Their most likely route through was England winning so that's now screwed. 

Its very unlikely they'll better 3rd in group E so its all about Group F now. To go through the need Georgia NOT to win and they need Czechia to either also not win, or win by more than a two goal margin. A single goal or two hoal Czech win puts Hungary out.

As an aside we can now formally confirm, Scotland could not have gone through with a draw v Hungary so they did need to gamble. The 0-0 would just have eliminated both countries.

[JS_FFC]

Netherlands and Slovenia both through as third placed team. Croatia are out.

 

Hungary are sweating on the bubble. Their odds of qualification dropped from 83% to 63% yesterday. They’re most likely not finishing ahead of the 3rd place in group E, so they’re left hoping that Czechia and Georgia fail to beat Türkiye and Portugal respectively. 

[Skyline Drifter]

On 25/06/2024 at 00:12, Skyline Drifter said:

I'm not sure its 'likely' yet. They were as good as out before that last ditch Italy goal. They only have any shot because they scored in the 100th minute and Italy in the 98th. Italy improved their position by scoring the equaliser but they would have almost certainly have gone through with a 1-0 loss anyway. 3 pts and a -1 GD was better than Hungary and would be better than Group F as long as Georgia dont beat Portugal. It might still be better than any of the other 3 groups also.

 

On 25/06/2024 at 02:08, Skyline Drifter said:

I think Hungary got very lucky in exactly the same way that we didnt! It was a tight game of few chances. The teams were fairly evenly matched and it would almost certainly have been a 0-0 draw if it had been played MD 1 or 2. It only didnt because injury time became cavalier end to end stuff for obvious reasons.

Hungary were about 10 seconds from going home abject in 4th with 1 pt and 1 goal from 3 matches. A crazy breakaway goal combined with Italy's 98th minute equaliser tonight and they are slightly better than 50% to get through. It goes from crisis to mission achieved in one kick.

So with the dust settled on this now a couple of observations which goes to show you should never assume anything (a lesson to myself).

Ultimately, Hungary's late, late goal changed nothing for them. They went out anyway. More surprisingly, despite what I expected above, the upset results in Groups C, D & F meant that Italy DID need that 98th minute equaliser to go through. If they'd lost 1-0 and finished behind Croatia they'd have then finished 5th in the 3rd place table, ahead of Hungary but behind Slovenia on GD and the other three 3rd place sides had 4 points.

Scotland would indeed have gotten through by winning against Hungary to get 4 points but would have been the final qualifier at the expense of Slovenia who were the only team through with 3 points. In practice of course, had we already been sitting on 4 points perhaps Slovenia's approach to the England game would have changed and they'd have pushed harder for a winner. Perhaps it wouldn't have as they wouldn't have expected Georgia to beat Portugal either but we'll never know how that might have changed things.

Personally don't think it's a massive coincidence that the 3rd place sides from Groups A and B went home. There's a lot to be said for knowing what you have to do for the others. Particularly when the opposition don't actually need to win (England, Netherlands) or indeed don't care at all (Portugal).

[Monkey Tennis]

On 28/06/2024 at 09:42, Skyline Drifter said:

 

Personally don't think it's a massive coincidence that the 3rd place sides from Groups A and B went home. There's a lot to be said for knowing what you have to do for the others. Particularly when the opposition don't actually need to win (England, Netherlands) or indeed don't care at all (Portugal).

Yes, this business of four 3rd place sides going through, does undo some of the impact of final games in given groups being played simultaneously.

That was obviously introduced after what was done to Algeria in 1982, but it's now possible for sides to conspire particular results that can be mutually beneficial.  I know that's not particularly what you're suggesting here, but it is true that teams playing later can have an advantage in not playing at the same time as sides who effectively become direct rivals.

[forameus]

On 29/06/2024 at 19:32, Monkey Tennis said:

Yes, this business of four 3rd place sides going through, does undo some of the impact of final games in given groups being played simultaneously.

That was obviously introduced after what was done to Algeria in 1982, but it's now possible for sides to conspire particular results that can be mutually beneficial.  I know that's not particularly what you're suggesting here, but it is true that teams playing later can have an advantage in not playing at the same time as sides who effectively become direct rivals.

Did similar happen in 2016 and 2020 with the Euros?  This final round of fixtures did seem a bit shit, but I don't remember this being the case in previous tournaments.  Could be misremembering though.  And obviously it's always going to be a possibility.  Short of having all games be on at the same time - which would be great fun, but obviously not going to happen - there's no real way around it in the current format.

[Monkey Tennis]

6 hours ago, forameus said:

Did similar happen in 2016 and 2020 with the Euros?  This final round of fixtures did seem a bit shit, but I don't remember this being the case in previous tournaments.  Could be misremembering though.  And obviously it's always going to be a possibility.  Short of having all games be on at the same time - which would be great fun, but obviously not going to happen - there's no real way around it in the current format.

Well, exactly.

It's the current format that needs to change.