Skyline Drifter Posted June 20 Share Posted June 20 6 minutes ago, BFTD said: Aye, that's Norway in 1994. Edit: something similar almost happened in Italy 90, as the only match that wasn't drawn was England's 1-0 win against Egypt (who I remember being dismissed as Third Division level opposition in the build-up). If that had stayed 0-0, all four sides would've finished on three points. As it was, Eire and the Dutch needed to draw lots to decide who was second/third. Ah, sorry, didn't realise you were actually telling me which group it was. I did indeed remember the Italia 90 England / Ireland group but also recalled it didn't actually happen because England stumbled over the line against Egypt. Memorably it's the only time I can recall teams actually drawing lots with the Irish winning against the Dutch to get a much easier last 16 tie. Not sure if lots have been drawn since but that's the one I always remember. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Virtual Insanity Posted June 20 Share Posted June 20 30 minutes ago, craigkillie said: I've had a quick browse of all major international tournaments with this 24 team format and 3 points for a win including previous Euros, Women's World Cup, AFCON and Asia Cup, and there has never been a team knocked out on 4 points. It's not impossible, of course. According to this phenomenal piece of work it happened twice in 75 occurrences in this tournament format. Says only 2 teams progressed with 2 points out of 24 but I believe it's actually 3 as Uruguay also did it in 1986 (with a minus 5 goal difference). 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Claudia Gentile Posted June 20 Share Posted June 20 55 minutes ago, craigkillie said: I've had a quick browse of all major international tournaments with this 24 team format and 3 points for a win including previous Euros, Women's World Cup, AFCON and Asia Cup, and there has never been a team knocked out on 4 points. It's not impossible, of course. This gives me the fear 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JS_FFC Posted June 20 Author Share Posted June 20 Think the rule of thumb is that 4 points almost certainly gets you through in this format, 3 will get you a goal difference tiebreaker and 2 almost certainly isn’t enough. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Virtual Insanity Posted June 20 Share Posted June 20 Copied from the other thread: I have had a look at probabilities of 2 points being enough, based on current standings and bookies odds for the results it would need, the current chances today are around 10-11% but if results all go our way (obviously unlikely) that could be as high as 47% by Sunday. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pandarilla Posted June 20 Share Posted June 20 11 minutes ago, Virtual Insanity said: Copied from the other thread: I have had a look at probabilities of 2 points being enough, based on current standings and bookies odds for the results it would need, the current chances today are around 10-11% but if results all go our way (obviously unlikely) that could be as high as 47% by Sunday. That's what I thought - 2 points gives us a sliver of a chance which would be ridiculously unlikely. 3 points (which we can't get now) would give us a really solid chance if we had a good GD (which was fucked on Friday). 4 points is all but guaranteed (barring insane results all over the place). Clarke said this after Friday and that's why he played for a draw late on. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
craigkillie Posted June 20 Share Posted June 20 2 hours ago, Virtual Insanity said: According to this phenomenal piece of work it happened twice in 75 occurrences in this tournament format. Says only 2 teams progressed with 2 points out of 24 but I believe it's actually 3 as Uruguay also did it in 1986 (with a minus 5 goal difference). This is good, but I ruled out youth tournaments because the qualification system means there will be teams who are miles out of their depth playing in the competitions, and this can skews things a lot. I also didn't do the 24 team World Cups since they were 2 points for a win and I don't think simply converting to 3 works here since teams would have played a bit differently with the knowledge that it was 2 for a win. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
craigkillie Posted June 20 Share Posted June 20 2 hours ago, Skyline Drifter said: I thought somebody didn't go through with 4 points at some point because they actually finished 4th in a group where everyone got 4 points (appreciate that's not happening with us)? Can't recall who but sure I read it last week. This might have happened but isn't relevant to our situation since we will definitely be 3rd (or 2nd) with 4 points. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JS_FFC Posted June 20 Author Share Posted June 20 SERBIA EQUALISER COULD BE HUGE FOR US 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pie Of The Month Posted June 20 Share Posted June 20 This potentially finishing 3rd is magic for having more of an interest in some of these games. Celebrated that Serbian equaliser far more than I should have. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Virtual Insanity Posted June 20 Share Posted June 20 7 hours ago, JS_FFC said: For today’s results we are hoping for: Serbia to avoid defeat against Slovenia at 2pm A draw is actually preferable, but we don’t want Slovenia to win as that would get them to 4 points with a decent chance that both England and Denmark join them. England to avoid defeat against Denmark at 5pm We are indifferent between a draw and an England win. Both of those would get England to 4+ and leave Denmark needing to beat Serbia to join them. Spain to beat Italy at 8pm This would mean 4 points is enough unless Albania beat Spain. The next best result would be an Italy win, because that would mean 4 is enough unless Croatia beat Italy. The unfortunate result in this one is a draw because then 4 may not be enough if either Albania or Croatia win their final match. Agree with the numbers on England but we probably prefer a draw now from the point of view of giving England something to play for going into the last game. Don't like the scenario of an England defeat potentially knocking us out... 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skyline Drifter Posted June 20 Share Posted June 20 4 minutes ago, JS_FFC said: SERBIA EQUALISER COULD BE HUGE FOR US Maybe, maybe not. In theory a Serbia win was best result for us but any result might have helped. There's no way 3rd place in that group can now finish with 1 point. Lowest possibility is 2pts so if we're to finish above 3rd in this group without beating Hungary then we need a fair bit of help (I think we can safely say if we get 4 points we'll go through). An England win v Denmark, and a draw in Serbia v Denmark means the best 3rd place team will finish better than we can do with 2 points (Serbia would have 2 points and -1 GD, so might Denmark if they only lose to England by one). I think the only way we could get two points and finish ahead of 3rd in this group now is: England hammer Denmark, England hammer Slovenia - in that case the last result potentially doesn't matter because whatever it is the 3rd place would get 2 points. and a rotten GD. But we really need England to win both heavily. ie by enough to make Denmark and Slovenia's GD's worse than -4. So Tartan Army lookign for a 5 goal England win this afternoon? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
microdave Posted June 20 Share Posted June 20 17 minutes ago, Pie Of The Month said: This potentially finishing 3rd is magic for having more of an interest in some of these games. Celebrated that Serbian equaliser far more than I should have. I was the same yesterday when Albania equalised. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Virtual Insanity Posted June 20 Share Posted June 20 I do enjoy 20 minutes ago, Skyline Drifter said: An England win v Denmark, and a draw in Serbia v Denmark means Tartan Army lookign for a 5 goal England win this afternoon? I think we probably have to give up on C as a <2 point group and focus on it as a <4 point group which now looks fairly likely (minimum 66% I think, upwards of 90% if England don't lose provided they don't intentionally throw the Slovenia game). I do enjoy spending far too much of my time thinking about all these possibilities before we inevitably f**k it up anyway. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McGlovin' Posted June 20 Share Posted June 20 Handy calculator for the 3rd placed finishers 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skyline Drifter Posted June 20 Share Posted June 20 (edited) I'm going to assume we're getting either a win or a draw to clinch 3rd (there is a fairly unlikely scenario where a win gets 2nd but only if the GD swing against the Swiss is six goals, seven if we don't score at least 3 in beating Hungary, so we'll not dwell on it and if we get second we'll not care much about best 3rd place anyway. If we lose and don't get 3rd I couldn't give a monkey's what gets through in 3rd! As such then we want as many groups as possible to finish with a 3rd place with less than 4 points and, ideally, at least two to finish with 3rd place getting 1 point (or 2 points and an even worse GD than us. So 3rd place watch: Group B Spain v Italy result has no direct relevance. If Spain beat Albania and Italy beat Croatia, then 3rd in this group will only get 1 point. If either Albania or Croatia draw their last game they'll finish with 2 points and a better GD than we can manage if we get 2. What we want - Spain and Italy to win their final games. Group C Impossible now for 3rd place to finish on 1 pt as there have been two draws in the group. Unlikely combination of results here involving England having two heavy wins could lead to 3rd finishing on 2 pts and a worse GD than us but that's a very long shot. In reality we're down to hoping nobody gets 4 points in 3rd in this group and we beat Hungary. England winning both games and Denmark v Serbia being a draw would leave 3rd place on 2 points. Less likely, Denmark winning both their games and Slovenia also beating England would leave England 3rd on 3 points ! Group D Early days in the rest of the groups as they've only played one game but there's an obvious possibility here of France beating Austria, Netherlands beating Poland and then either the Poles and Austrians drawing to leave 3rd place on 1 point or one of them winning to leave it on 3pts. Group E Less likely but equally possibility of Romania beating Belgium and Slovakia beating Ukraine and then Belgium and Ukraine drawing to leave 3rd on 1 point. Or one of them winning to leave 3rd on 3 pts. Seems more likely though that this one will end up with a wide points spread and 3rd being 4 points or even more. Group F And also a possibility of Portugal beating Georgia and Turkey beating Czechia to leave 3rd place on either 1 or 3 points depending on the Czechia v Georgia game. I'll update this as the tournament progresses and possibilities become clearer. Edited June 20 by Skyline Drifter 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Master Posted June 20 Share Posted June 20 This will be good practice for working out the permutations for best runners-up when the League Cup gets going. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H Wragg Posted June 20 Share Posted June 20 So, anything other than a Slovenia win against England and it's job done in that group? (Assuming Scotland on 4 points). 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Virtual Insanity Posted June 20 Share Posted June 20 18 minutes ago, H Wragg said: So, anything other than a Slovenia win against England and it's job done in that group? (Assuming Scotland on 4 points). Slovenia win is also OK if Denmark and Serbia draw. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
craigkillie Posted June 20 Share Posted June 20 The only way Group B can have 3rd place on 4 points now is if Albania beat Spain. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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