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8 hours ago, Fuctifano said:

Super 6 starts today, think we're toast but the most plausible (or least implausible) path to qualification is :

Beat Zimbabwe, heavily, to make up NRR difference (tie breaker is NRR not head to head), beat Netherlands and hope Sri Lanka beat everyone they still have to play. 

Would leave us and Zimbabwe on 6 points with the others unable to get more than 4 so would come down to NRR between us and Zimbabwe. Can't see us beating them at home the way they're playing. In fact I'd expect them to rack up a large win vs Oman today to almost put the NRR out of reach barring something silly. 

Oman only lost by 14 runs so this part of it is still on as unlikely as us winning vs Zimbabwe is. 

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Today is a good example of what I mean when I say I don't think England have the nous to understand when it needs reined in a bit.

All-out attack, all of the time, is invariably going to result in some sessions/days/Tests where you just look like morons, and I don't think it's a workable approach versus the really, really good sides. They have to decide if annihilating Ireland inside three  days or running up 600 at a run a ball against piddling attacks is really worth constantly undermining your own chances against the better sides.

They dug in a bit and stopped the rot somewhat this evening, but still, as I said before, to beat the best you can't afford to have stupid sessions full of self-inflicted mistakes, trip over your own dick, and make it even easier for them than it needs to be. 

Funny thing is, I think England could easily lose this series 3 or 4-1, but if the solitary win comes in a manner similar to Stokes' Headingly knock, everyone will stay totally in love with Bazball and ignore the nonsense like this afternoon that contributed to a series hiding.

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Huge first session today. England lose more than one wicket and they could face Australia starting their 2nd innings with a big advantage. Conversely if they can limit it to a single wicket and score at a decent rate they'd likely be looking at a first innings lead. Something that has looked unlikely with the idiotic way they gave away wickets yesterday and how passive they looked with ball in hand on day one. 

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1 minute ago, Salvo Montalbano said:

Think England will get close to the first innings score so a lot will depend if Lyon is fit for the fourth innings as it already looks like there are some rough patches in a good spot for the spinner. 

What's the rules around runners for Lyons if he's able to bat? 

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3 minutes ago, Salvo Montalbano said:

Think England will get close to the first innings score so a lot will depend if Lyon is fit for the fourth innings as it already looks like there are some rough patches in a good spot for the spinner. 

I think Steve Smith said that Lyon was out for the rest of the test and possibly longer.

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1 hour ago, jaggyness said:

Huge first session today. England lose more than one wicket and they could face Australia starting their 2nd innings with a big advantage. Conversely if they can limit it to a single wicket and score at a decent rate they'd likely be looking at a first innings lead. Something that has looked unlikely with the idiotic way they gave away wickets yesterday and how passive they looked with ball in hand on day one. 

Well now we have the answer. Australia should have a decent 1st innings lead from here

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