Israel And The Palestinians (now with added Iran/Lebanon)

[Black_and_White_Stripes]

On 27/09/2024 at 20:56, bennett said:

It's ok the Green brigade have solved the middle east crisis with a tin of dulux.

 

 

I'm actually quite impressed with that, tbh. I mean, they've actually gone out there. Presumably they performed some sort of service, besides painting the mural...

[DeeTillEhDeh]

23 hours ago, Granny Danger said:

It’s incredible to think that the main driving force behind the actions in Gaza and now the Lebanon is less to do with religious fervour or political ambitions than an overriding desire by Netanyahu to stay out of jail.

ETA Israel seem determined to turn this into a full scale regional war.

It always has been about Netanyahu's corruption trial.

[welshbairn]

Just now, DeeTillEhDeh said:

It always has been about Netanyahu's corruption trial.

Added to that his quiet promotion of Hamas to undermine the Palestinian National Authority, and negligence in removing troops from around the Gaza Strip to terrorise the West Bank, creating a security vacuum for Hamas to exploit last year. There will be an enquiry after the war and he's toast.

[Sergeant Wilson]

2 hours ago, Black_and_White_Stripes said:

I'm actually quite impressed with that, tbh. I mean, they've actually gone out there. Presumably they performed some sort of service, besides painting the mural...

 "We come from Scotland to support your fight against oppression.

Thank you. What can you do to support us?

Painter and decorator, best prices, no job to big or small."

Edited 6 hours ago by Sergeant Wilson

[ICTChris]

The destruction of Hezbollah as a fighting force, which is what appears to be happening, is a huge moment in the Middle East.

What will the internal impact be in Lebanon?  Lebanon is in a perpetual crisis, the economy is in ruins and it's political system is in turmoil.  Hezbollah are a large part of that but since they began attacking Israel with greater frequency following the Hamas attacks last year, there hasn't been any organised backlash against them, merely a few isolated incidents of local gunmen opposing their forces - in fact quite a few of their opponents within Lebanon have made their areas available for Shia fleeing the war.  Despite this, there's an underlying sense that Hezbollah has taken the country to the abyss and for what?  There's a report that Michael Auon, the former President and Maronite Christian ally of Hezbollah, told the organisation this right at the start of the conflict but he has clearly been ignored.  Hezbollah has also consistently defended the system of government in Lebanon that has lead the country to the current state of collapse.  Hezbollah have also blocked an inquiry into the port explosion that devastated much of Beirut, predominantly Christian areas.  They have similarly refused to hand over the Hezbollah operatives who were convicted by UN tribunal for the assassination of Prime Minister Hariri, a Sunni.

What will the impact of this be on Iran?  Iran has used proxy forces to pin Israel in - Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon.  What does Iran do now that these forces, and the civilians who live around them, are destroyed?  In April they launched a drone and missile attack on Israel, which didn't really have any significant impact - that was after Israel bombed the Iranian embassy in Damascus, not in response to Gaza or anything in Lebanon.  Iran now faces up to the fact that it's strategy of using proxy forces hasn't worked, what's it's next step?  Does it try to escalate and attack Israel more, attack from Syria?  Does it try to develop a nuclear weapon, the ultimate way for leverage?  Or does it issue some statements and attempt to attack to save face but in actuality de-escalate?  Remember after the USA killed Soleimani in Iraq, they promised hellfire and damnation etc et al but actually produced a muted response.  The defeat of Hezbollah will have an internal impact on Iranian politics as well -  who will carry the can for what is happening, the reformist president, or the hardliners in the IRGC?

What will be the impact in Israel?  Will the Israeli government be tempted into a ground war in Lebanon to finish off Hezbollah?  Israel has gone into Lebanon a number of times in the past and it has never managed to fully achieve it's goals, despite some tactical successes (removal of PLO forces from Southern Lebanon in the 1970s and 80s) they ended up with strategic failures (eventual withdrawal from South Lebanon and the areas take over by Hezbollah).  It seems a crazy idea to go back in when they appear to be having military success with air and drone strikes but who knows.  If the war also ends with success over Hezbollah then that's a major victory for Netanyahu - maybe not enough to cancel out the failures that lead up to the October 7th attacks but certainly one that he will point to in any subsequent election, inquiry or trial.

Edited 7 hours ago by ICTChris

[Granny Danger]

If it looks like Netanyahu is going to face trial/prison he will flee to a sympathetic country where they will take him in.

 

[Black_and_White_Stripes]

59 minutes ago, Sergeant Wilson said:

 "We come from Scotland to support your fight against oppression.

Thank you. What can you do to support us?

Painter and decorator, best prices, no job to big or small."

You can laugh and mock, but you don't actually know what else they have done. What is evident is the GB have gone out there and been welcomed by the community, at least to such an extent they can paint a mural. 

So many people like to display a Palestinian flag on their social media account, but don't actually do anything tangible. Folk often point this out, 'why don't you go to Palestine/Ukraine, if you feel so strongly about it?', is a common criticism I see online. These guys have done that and are still being criticised! 

[welshbairn]

2 hours ago, ICTChris said:

Israel has gone into Lebanon a number of times in the past and it has never managed to fully achieve it's goals, despite some tactical successes (removal of PLO forces from Southern Lebanon in the 1970s and 80s) they ended up with strategic failures (eventual withdrawal from South Lebanon and the areas take over by Hezbollah). 

Quote

Referring to the Israeli invasion of 1982, former Israeli prime minister Ehud Barak stated, "When we entered Lebanon … there was no Hezbollah. We were accepted with perfumed rice and flowers by the Shia in the south. It was our presence there that created Hezbollah."

The Shia of the South were mainly represented by Amal, mostly secular, who had been involved in a civil conflict with Palestinians, so initially they thought the Israelis would be helpful. Very quickly the Shia's life in the South became hell though with mass evictions, so Iran took advantage by funding and arming an Islamist offshoot which became Hizbollah, and suicide bombing was invented. The law of unintended consequences which Israel and the West fall foul of again and again. 

Edited 4 hours ago by welshbairn

[Mr Waldo]

Looks like Hezbollah took a right few sair yins.   I cannot imagine Israel seeing this as anything but a chance to neuter them by invading southern Lebanon.   Replacing Hezbollah military with Lebanese army would be their biggest goal/challenge. 

[Bairnardo]

1 hour ago, Mr Waldo said:

Looks like Hezbollah took a right few sair yins.   I cannot imagine Israel seeing this as anything but a chance to neuter them by invading southern Lebanon.   Replacing Hezbollah military with Lebanese army would be their biggest goal/challenge. 

Struggling to put a decent first 11 now you would imagine. Can they pull off some magic in the loan market before the window shuts? The question is, who would want to go their given that they seem cursed with injuries. At this point, even Man U seem like a better career move

[coprolite]

1 hour ago, Mr Waldo said:

Looks like Hezbollah took a right few sair yins.   I cannot imagine Israel seeing this as anything but a chance to neuter them by invading southern Lebanon.   Replacing Hezbollah military with Lebanese army would be their biggest goal/challenge. 

My guess (if this is in any way accurate) is that the rest of Hezbollah is likely to regroup with new individuals stepping in to leadership roles.

There will probably be some differences between new leaders which might lead to a bit of fragmentation but i'd expect there to be a renewed impetus to stop Israel and a shitload of new recruits.

There will definitely be at least one emergent faction that was previously in check that decides the problem was not being militant enough. 

 

 

[Venti]

Time to add Yemen to the thread title.

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/c981g8mrl8lt

[beefybake]

4 hours ago, ICTChris said:

The destruction of Hezbollah as a fighting force, which is what appears to be happening, is a huge moment in the Middle East.

What will the internal impact be in Lebanon?  Lebanon is in a perpetual crisis, the economy is in ruins and it's political system is in turmoil.  Hezbollah are a large part of that but since they began attacking Israel with greater frequency following the Hamas attacks last year, there hasn't been any organised backlash against them, merely a few isolated incidents of local gunmen opposing their forces - in fact quite a few of their opponents within Lebanon have made their areas available for Shia fleeing the war.  Despite this, there's an underlying sense that Hezbollah has taken the country to the abyss and for what?  There's a report that Michael Auon, the former President and Maronite Christian ally of Hezbollah, told the organisation this right at the start of the conflict but he has clearly been ignored.  Hezbollah has also consistently defended the system of government in Lebanon that has lead the country to the current state of collapse.  Hezbollah have also blocked an inquiry into the port explosion that devastated much of Beirut, predominantly Christian areas.  They have similarly refused to hand over the Hezbollah operatives who were convicted by UN tribunal for the assassination of Prime Minister Hariri, a Sunni.

What will the impact of this be on Iran?  Iran has used proxy forces to pin Israel in - Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon.  What does Iran do now that these forces, and the civilians who live around them, are destroyed?  In April they launched a drone and missile attack on Israel, which didn't really have any significant impact - that was after Israel bombed the Iranian embassy in Damascus, not in response to Gaza or anything in Lebanon.  Iran now faces up to the fact that it's strategy of using proxy forces hasn't worked, what's it's next step?  Does it try to escalate and attack Israel more, attack from Syria?  Does it try to develop a nuclear weapon, the ultimate way for leverage?  Or does it issue some statements and attempt to attack to save face but in actuality de-escalate?  Remember after the USA killed Soleimani in Iraq, they promised hellfire and damnation etc et al but actually produced a muted response.  The defeat of Hezbollah will have an internal impact on Iranian politics as well -  who will carry the can for what is happening, the reformist president, or the hardliners in the IRGC?

What will be the impact in Israel?  Will the Israeli government be tempted into a ground war in Lebanon to finish off Hezbollah?  Israel has gone into Lebanon a number of times in the past and it has never managed to fully achieve it's goals, despite some tactical successes (removal of PLO forces from Southern Lebanon in the 1970s and 80s) they ended up with strategic failures (eventual withdrawal from South Lebanon and the areas take over by Hezbollah).  It seems a crazy idea to go back in when they appear to be having military success with air and drone strikes but who knows.  If the war also ends with success over Hezbollah then that's a major victory for Netanyahu - maybe not enough to cancel out the failures that lead up to the October 7th attacks but certainly one that he will point to in any subsequent election, inquiry or trial.

Fundamental misunderstanding of current events,  history, and the ultimate goal of Iran.

1. The ultimate goal of Iran is for all Western influence to disappear from the Middle East. Nothing that has happened so far has detracted from that goal.

2. In its previous invasions of Lebanon, Israel behaved appallingly, facilitated massacres, and ultimately was basically defeated.., forcing withdrawal. More than strategic failures.

3. Hezbollah don't look defeated to me. In general, both Iran, and Hezbollah etc have shown lots of restraint in terms of retaliations . Hezbollah have said all along quite straightforwardlty that they would stop the attacks on Israel when there is a ceasefire agreed in Gaza. Israel has found every fabricated excuse to avoid a ceasefire.  Assassinations  of senior/top commanders don't work beyond the short term.

Oh, you forgot to mention that Hezbollah provides social care in Lebanon. This sounds rather like how the Muslim Brotherhood has worked.

 

Think about it...., In the last year, has Israel made any friends? I don't think so.

Edited 2 hours ago by beefybake

[ICTChris]

42 minutes ago, beefybake said:

Fundamental misunderstanding of current events,  history, and the ultimate goal of Iran.

1. The ultimate goal of Iran is for all Western influence to disappear from the Middle East. Nothing that has happened so far has detracted from that goal.

2. In its previous invasions of Lebanon, Israel behaved appallingly, facilitated massacres, and ultimately was basically defeated.., forcing withdrawal. More than strategic failures.

3. Hezbollah don't look defeated to me. In general, both Iran, and Hezbollah etc have shown lots of restraint in terms of retaliations . Hezbollah have said all along quite straightforwardlty that they would stop the attacks on Israel when there is a ceasefire agreed in Gaza. Israel has found every fabricated excuse to avoid a ceasefire.  Assassinations  of senior/top commanders don't work beyond the short term.

Oh, you forgot to mention that Hezbollah provides social care in Lebanon. This sounds rather like how the Muslim Brotherhood has worked.

 

Think about it...., In the last year, has Israel made any friends? I don't think so.

1 - How does Iran go about trying to destroy Western influence in the Middle East?  By using their allied/proxy forces such as Hezbollah.  Hezbollah have had their communications infrastructure and leadership basically destroyed in the past few weeks.

2 - A strategic failure is a failure in terms of long-term goals, which is what has happened to Israel in Lebanon since the 1980s.

3 - Hezbollah have, according to Israel and I haven't seen anyone within Hezbollah contradict it, lost their entire military heirarchy.  They have lost their communication network.  They have lost significant volumes of equipment, significant numbers of fighters.  They are being battered.  This is more than the isolated killings of Hezbollah people that has happened in the past, they have lost dozens of their top leaders.  These people are hard to replace, they had experience in command, they had the experience in fighting.  It's highly doubtful they have people who can step into these shoes.  The equivalent would be Hezbollah killing the entire General Staff of the IDF.

Iran and Hezbollah aren't showing restraint in their retaliation - they can't retaliate as they don't have the means because of what has happened.  I expect we'll see another Iranian salvo towards Israel the way we did six months ago, with similar results.

Regarding Israel making or not making friends, I imagine Israel are in a very similar position to where they were a year ago.  There is a quiet alliance between Israel and Sunni Muslim Arab countries - senior generals from Israel and a number of Arab countries have met during the current war to discuss the situation regarding Iran.  Of course, the risk is that closening ties with Israel is astonishingly unpopular with Arab people and could cause unrest in these countries.  I guess we will see how that goes.

[Silvio Tattiescone]

39 minutes ago, beefybake said:

Think about it...., In the last year, has Israel made any friends? I don't think so.

Do you think Israel gives a f**k about making friends? 

[Mark Connolly]

4 hours ago, Mr Waldo said:

Looks like Hezbollah took a right few sair yins.   I cannot imagine Israel seeing this as anything but a chance to neuter them by invading southern Lebanon.   Replacing Hezbollah military with Lebanese army would be their biggest goal/challenge. 

If I was Abu Ali Rida, I'd be shiteing myself