Adamski
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Posts posted by Adamski
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22 minutes ago, oaksoft said:
It makes the assumption that a trend will continue unabated.
It's flawed thinking.
It's demonstrably flawed thinking.
It a pattern, just as people use to base decisions on all sorts of aspects of their lives.
I don't think anyone is suggesting that an increase like that will go on until the end of time, but in the absence of something that changes the state of play like a lockdown or some event that brings about lots of mixing, it's the best guess that can be made. Anyone who presents it as anything else is overplaying their hand.
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46 minutes ago, oaksoft said:
Adamski, with the utmost respect, I can't speak for anyone else but personally I'm absolutely done with people producing models for infections.
It's pretty clear that as humans we don't understand anywhere near enough about how viruses spread and it's also crystal clear that our scientists don't have enough of a clue about how humans behave to produce credible numbers.
I'm sure you're a good scientist but after 2 years of people climbing over themselves to give predictions as "experts" I'm done with all of it, whether those models predict numbers I like or don't like.
And I'm saying that as a former scientist who specialised in computational work.
I've got a few irons in the fire as far as Covid is concerned, but I'm definitely no expert. And I don't think models tell the whole story, but they do have a part to play. If they're good then they should give forewarning of things that are worth preparing for or highlighting when that's not the case. And there's some things that aren't exactly rocket science: if on Monday to Thursday the case rates are about 1.5 times what they were last week, then on Friday they'll most likely they'll be about 1.5 times what they were last Friday too. They might not be, but it's a best guess. I don't think it'll surprise anyone that the biggest rises in cases this year happened during the initial unlocking in May, the Euros (which has the record for the current week to week rise), when the schools went back, and now.
I personally know quite a few of the people who have been in the press and on TV throughout all of this, including one very high profile one. Certainly of them, I'd be very surprised if there's anyone who sees this as their fifteen minutes of fame and an opportunity to make a name for themselves. Mainly people who hope that their expertise can add to the general understanding of the virus and make a bit of a difference to the outcome, and who would rather it was all done so that they can get back to their normal lives and doing the types of science they enjoy. And it's not hard to find people in the community who are opposed to the types of restrictions currently being put in place.
People want clear answers. All scientists can do is offer their best guess based on their experiences of other respiratory viruses, plus the two years or so to learn about this one. And if possible present those guesses clearly, and taking into account the economic/social/mental factors that might not point to the same conclusions as the scientific ones.
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2 hours ago, Adamski said:
As I've alluded to before on this thread, I'm a scientist working on infectious diseases, and although Covid isn't really my specialty, it's something I've become increasingly involved in over the past year or so - particularly in terms of what is happening with it in Africa.
Anyway, on the back of all that I have a model that predicts how many cases will be reported in Scotland each day. It sometimes fails, but it's usually not too bad. The most reported in Scotland in one day since this all began was 7,113. Today the model is predicting 8,868. Obviously that goes without any predictors of how it translates to hospitalisation and death.
Fingers crossed it's out on the low side, and feel free to shoot me and it down in a few hours if so!
4,336
Good.
Taxi for me and my model.
(6,522 tomorrow).
Edit: just checked back - it's the highest % it has been out by since June. Great day to pick to post on P&B about it.
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As I've alluded to before on this thread, I'm a scientist working on infectious diseases, and although Covid isn't really my specialty, it's something I've become increasingly involved in over the past year or so - particularly in terms of what is happening with it in Africa.
Anyway, on the back of all that I have a model that predicts how many cases will be reported in Scotland each day. It sometimes fails, but it's usually not too bad. The most reported in Scotland in one day since this all began was 7,113. Today the model is predicting 8,868. Obviously that goes without any predictors of how it translates to hospitalisation and death.
Fingers crossed it's out on the low side, and feel free to shoot me and it down in a few hours if so!
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This lot are vile, although we already knew that. And nobody of any level of importance will apologise or resign, of course.
Imagine the press reaction if this had happened at Bute House.
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3 hours ago, welshbairn said:
You'll be fine, nothing in motion yet. Scottish Health Secretary:
This is really helpful. Thanks very much!
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2 minutes ago, welshbairn said:
Pretty sure you'll be OK, Johnson said the details will be announce tomorrow and they have to give notice. If your PLF has been accepted that's job done I think.
Fingers crossed! Definitely put a wave of extra stress on a quick weekend away.
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Any word on when the PCR tests will start being needed? I’m abroad at the moment, due back tomorrow night, passenger locator form already completed and day 2 lateral flow already organised.
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'Here we, here we, here we fucking go' is so prevalent at gigs, festivals, etc in Scotland. I'm surprised it has never found its way to Scotland games. I think it would work quite well at times like the aftermath of a crucial goal.
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17 hours ago, Salvo Montalbano said:
How easy was it getting Arsenal tickets? Its my dad's 70th this year and they are his English team if he had to pick one and I'm hoping to take him to a game early next year. If not we'll just do the stadium tour etc. but ideally we'd take in a game against mid table opposition (I can't see us getting tickets for a big name game).
My mate booked them through a company called Sports Travel Guru. We paid £90 - a seat in club level, stadium tour, free drink at half time, programme, £5 club shop voucher. Think we had access to the museum as well. Pretty happy with it as a one-off experience, and my mate said the company were good to deal with.
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…and then Arsenal v Watford on Sunday afternoon.
The Emirates is an impressive beast of a football stadium (I’ve been before - when Scotland played Brazil - but can barely remember it as I don’t think I’ve ever been so hungover at a football match).
We paid a touch extra for a package that got you good seats and various other perks - a stadium tour, programme, money off at the club shop, etc. As a one-off experience it was just about worth it. And the place you spend time in before/during/after the game is pretty swanky - like a fancier airport departure lounge.
Swanky prices too though. My mate paid £11.50 for a burger. Not extras like chips or extra fillings though - that would have been £20!
All in all, it’s a long way from Palmerston.
Like Brighton the night before, no classic but enough to keep things entertaining. They probably had the chances to have won by more, but as the song goes it was 1-0 to the Arsenal.
Here’s Aubameyang about to miss his penalty…
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Brighton 1 v 1 Newcastle on Saturday evening.
Not a classic, but enough to keep it entertaining. Brighton finished the game with defender Lewis Dunk in goal after their keeper was sent off, but Newcastle never really tested him. Brighton probably we’re marginally better, but a draw seemed fair. Also we were sitting beside possibly the sweariest man I’ve ever encountered at the football, which kept us amused when the game was quiet.
It’s a new stadium done well, and Brighton have done a good job of giving it some character. And they sell it out every home game. Fair old trek to and from the city centre (£18 in a taxi), but a fun place for a night out afterwards.
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19 hours ago, Priti priti priti Patel said:
@Distant Doonhamer and @Adamski how were your respective football weekends?
We had a great weekend - pals I've not seen since Covid happened, lots of football, and beer to a level that I've grown out of practice with.
Brighton v Newcastle on Saturday evening, followed by Arsenal v Watford on Sunday afternoon. Neither of the games were classics, but enough incidents to keep us entertained: VAR had hands in both games, red cards, penalties, Brighton finishing the game with an outfield player in goal, etc. Brighton was a good night out, and the Emirates is an impressive beast of a stadium - a long, long way from Palmerston!
It's good to be back doing stuff like that again. Hopefully more before too long.
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Total, total own-trumpet blowing, but here’s some science wot I done.
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.11.02.21265755v1
Two mutations, both common in people with African ancestry. People who carry both mutations (maybe around 5% of black people in the UK) might have a higher risk of hospitalisation and death if they get Covid.
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Has this already been posted? If not, this:
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On 20/10/2021 at 00:03, Distant Doonhamer said:
Thanks for this. Really helpful.
Think we might give that one a miss based on the description. We generally look to get a decent lunch and a few beers before the game. AFC Wimbledon at Plough Lane looking like the best option as things stand.We’ve been a bit scuppered by the draw and the TV scheduling, so our FA Cup weekend has evolved into a Premier League one. Brighton v Newcastle on the Saturday, then Anrsenal v Watford on the Sunday. Arsenal to St Albans v Forest Green to Luton Airport for the flight home is just about doable on the Sunday, but sounds like a bit of a mad rush and might well be feeling footballed out by then.
Anybody been to a game at St Albans? Worth the detour?
Anyway - first weekend away with pals in a very long time and really looking forward to it.
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Corinthian Casuals and Dorking both out on penalties this evening. Bummer - two of our top picks of games to go to.
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2 hours ago, Distant Doonhamer said:
We are in London that weekend. We had hoped that Hampton and Richmond (The Beavers) might get though but sadly they lost on Saturday. Went to a league game there 2 years ago and had an excellent afternoon. Currently considering Corinthians v Forest Green (if Corinthians win their replay tonight), the winner of Hayes and Yeading/Dorking v Sutton or Wimbledon v Brackley Town/Guiseley.That's pretty close to our shortlist as well. Maybe also Dagenham and Redbridge v Salford.
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22 hours ago, LondonHMFC said:
My now local side Horsham went through today after beating Woking. About an hour from Victoria on the train. Nice little town, good few boozers. Few potential "derbies" in the draw as well.
Ach, after that draw it's not to be, unfortunately.
Not a huge amount of eye-catching ties in the London/South East area at first glance - was kind of hoping for a wee non-league team at home to a Portsmouth/Sunderland/Ipswich type club. I'm sure we'll find a game or two in amongst that lot though.
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Me and a group of pals are planning a weekend in London to coincide with the FA Cup first round. Hoping to get at least a couple of games in.
Of the non-league teams that have made it, any recommendations of good ones in/near London to visit (or avoid) if the draw allows?
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Pollok v Auchinleck Talbot this afternoon.
A top-of-the-table six-pointer in the West of Scotland Premier. Torrential rain, six goals, dodgy goalkeeping, dodgy penalties, three red cards, Pollok played the last 25 minutes with 8 men despite being 3-2 up at that point, and held out for a draw. Pretty sterile affair, otherwise.
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I moved to not far from Pollok’s ground over the summer and had been meaning to get to a game all season.
Went along today. Genuinely the most entertaining game of football I’ve been to in years.
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I was working near Cambridge at the time. I'd been out the night before and was toiling through work with a stinking hangover.
The first I knew of anything happening was from reading a post on a Queens messageboard (by the guy who occasionally still posts here as Frankie S) that mentioned a plane crashing into the WTC. Like many others, I assumed that it was a light aircraft or something similar. It tweaked my interest and I wanted to find out more, but being the internet in 2001 and the amount of people who were probably doing similar on the it was pretty much impossible to access any news site. So off I went to spend more time with my hangover and try and get some work done.
I can totally picture the moment an hour or so later when I walked into a room where the radio was on just in time to hear the headlines: both towers were down, various aeroplanes were unaccounted for, etc. A scary, sombre day.
Not really meaning this in the classic P&B 'could have been me' context, but I was at the top of the the WTC almost exactly a year earlier. Imagining it no longer being there, and the absolute horror of people in places that I'd been not very long before took a fair bit of wrapping my head around.
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in The Politics Forum
Posted · Edited by Adamski