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LongTimeLurker

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Everything posted by LongTimeLurker

  1. Thing is though that there will be a lot of Fox viewers who genuinely believe God is upset when watching that. Widespread belief in Israel's supposed future role in events described in Revelations and in the rapture that is supposed to happen for believers has guided US foreign policy in the Middle East because of that. Irrational belief systems can and do influence politics and world events.
  2. How they get the nuclear codes back is what moves this beyond the realm of comedy.
  3. A sizable portion of the population is driven by visceral level emotion, does not think rationally and laps this sort of stuff up. The left has its own versions of this type of drivel (a Swedish teenager immediately comes to mind), so it isn't just a right wing phenomenon.
  4. The etiquette in this situation is that one of the candidates is supposed to make a gracious concession speech after a polite congratulatory phonecall to the winner prompted by the universally trusted media sources calling races one way or the other. That started to unravel last time when HRC refused to make a concession speech on cue when the Trump victory was called by the media and Trump is taking it a yuge step further this time with the delusional claims of electoral fraud. Think the media will only call races now when leads exceed votes left to be counted.
  5. Corbyn was supposed to have changed the Labour party permanently in a UK context, but that can quickly fade after an election defeat convinces the rest of the party that a particular set of policies isn't the winning formula for having lots of jobs for the boys available. Demographics are shifting across many of the sunbelt and southern states and what happened this time in Arizona and Georgia could be Texas or Florida next time, so there are sound reasons for thinking the Republicans will have to moderate their policies at the federal level to stay competitive. The silence from many top Republicans could be interpreted as giving Herr Drumpf some extra time to do the decent thing given relatively few senior Republicans (Guiliani, Gingrich and Graham) have been actively backing his electoral fraud narrative. Suspect the slow pace of some of the counting has also been about hoping he would concede graciously and take the heat off, but now they'll just have to plough on regardless and hope they don't wind up with Alex Jones and a posse of gun-totting rednecks outside.
  6. She'll probably be waiting to cash in when he eventually croaks. Doubt the prenup will have been too generous.
  7. Way too far north for that, but there is an urban myth about them being in New York City's sewers.
  8. Richard Nixon, Dwight Eisenhower, Ronald Reagan can you hear me. Your boys took one hell of a beating....
  9. Large portion come from "the projects" as no other job opportunities available to them. Also tend to be younger and younger voters skew towards Biden.
  10. It will be close enough that whoever loses will almost certainly want a recount. Think it also has implications where the Senate is concerned.
  11. ...and that mainstream Republicans want no part of his childish temper tantrums over losing. Fox doing that signalled that loud and clear and undermined his narrative big time because it made Biden's path to 270 very clear and non-controversial for any sane unbiased observer.
  12. Trump has a built in advantage of being able to win from anything under 3% back on the popular vote in the context of the electoral college. Most of the polls probably had an inherent +3% to Biden bias for uncorrected methodological reasons that have been cropping up election after election but never get fixed because people like Nate Silver would lose their audience if they don't tell them what they want to hear by contradicting the prevailing group think. Taking those factors into account and assuming there are no legal shenanigans that stop the vote counts reaching their natural completion, Biden could easily be over 300 on the electoral college when the dust settles with what should be viewed as a solid victory in the context of a system where the cards are stacked against him . In 2016, the Dems would probably have done better and won with Bernie Sanders because a large portion of the electorate clearly wanted a radical change rather than more of the same, but this time there were probably more votes to be gained in the middle ground with Biden.
  13. No he mysteriously fell under a bus and President Mike Pence just declared the formation of Gilead.
  14. His real name is Piers (Pearse?) O'Meara and his family is from County Offaly. Seems to always go out of his way to prove he is the quintessential pompous English gentleman. Trying to fit in a wee bit too hard maybe.
  15. He had his mike shut off in that context overnight when he first started going tonto on that platform and managed to spell poll as pole in the process.
  16. The bulk of the remaining ballots are from Detroit which is very heavily Democrat.
  17. How many people would have been betting on Trump before a few hours ago when the polls had Biden up to +10% on the popular vote? There weren't many people suggesting it would be close on here and I suspect that would have been the mentality of the average punter in the UK dabbling in this.
  18. Was quite taken aback at having to explain on here a few hours back why Arizona being called for Biden would mean it should be in the bag for the Dems as long as that held up OK. Guess it revolves around what info sources you are following.
  19. Texas will flip for demographic change reasons within another couple of election cycles to be like California. After that the Republicans can't run a candidate like Trump again and have any hope of winning, so he is probably the last gasp of reactionary dog whistle American racism at the federal level if the mail-ins in the battleground state unfold as expected from here.
  20. Yes, for much the same reason as the other ones on many heavily Democratic mail-ins being those outstanding, but think it is the least likely to flip.
  21. Al Gore was eventually told to knock the hanging chad stuff on the head by his own party hierarchy. If Biden has clearly won in a much more clear cut manner than Bush did that time, mainstream Republicans will probably do much the same.
  22. Letting slip that your grandmother was in the CPGB definitely best avoided in my direct experience. Even the normal seeming ones from deep blue states tend to turn into Sam the Bald-Headed Eagle at that point. Best just to grin as they tell you all about what clan they belong to because their mental image of Scotland or even worse the island of Ireland bears no correlation to reality and trying to explain any kind of nuance about how things really are tends to get you nowhere and isn't worth the effort.
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