LongTimeLurker

He also may need Nevada if Georgia doesn't go his way and it's uncomfortably close like so many others.

Especially if people are watching it through the filter of some clueless BBC talking heads rather than cutting out the middle man and following American sources. American Dems on twitter have been very upbeat for many hours since Arizona started to be declared as having flipped and have been explaining what would likely be unfolding subsequent to that, while some of the more honest Republicans have been quite glum. Not over till the fat lady sings but this latest turn of events shouldn't be the surprise that it appears to be for some.

Best to ignore the BBC and follow American outlets. Most of the remaining votes to be counted are from the Atlanta area which is very heavily Democrat.

Not if Georgia and Arizona flip as appears likely.

If other states are flipping that were more difficult to do than Wisconsin and Michigan it should work out OK in the end but obviously we'll have to wait and see to be 100% confident on that. It was somewhat surprising that Trump wanted Arizona to be counted to completion, because it complicates his narrative elsewhere.

It's more that the average of multiple polls is out as that points to a systematic skewing towards Biden and an issue with methodology.

Path is Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan, NE-2, most of Maine and DC at that point with Pennsylvania and Georgia apparently now still also in play.

Hope this isn't Florida during Bush vs Gore all over again. With Arizona on board it is almost in the bag for Biden.

Too many people were losing sight of the possibility that there was a strong pro-Biden bias in large portions of the US media that was likely to blind people to the possibility that the polling numbers they were reporting were not being weighted properly to fully quantify shy Trump support. Fingers crossed it still works out OK for the Democrats in the end, but not surprised this has turned into a nailbiter.

Working the phrase "liberation of Saigon" into a conversation is a good way to really wind up Americans that are getting on your nerves a wee bit.

Donald Trump played fitba in college and has been reported to have seriously thought about buying Rangers at one point. Worth bearing in mind he is half-Scottish given his mother was from Lewis, so there is a good chance he has Rangers supporting relatives. His son Barron speaks fluent Slovene for obvious reasons, supports Arsenal and plays for a DC United academy team. Trump and his family have very little in common culturally with the Alex Jones listeners who tend to vote for him.

...or it nudges Boris towards dropping some empty posturing and being slightly more sensible and ultimately really doesn't matter that much because he was probably going to do that anyway. Think people who view US elections through the prism of whether a particular presidential candidate is a Billy or a Dan or an old tin can out themselves as being constitutionally obsessed nutters. US foreign policy of being broadly sympathetic to Irish nationalism but also being OK with the principle of consent where UI is concerned has been a constant for many decades and is unlikely to shift very much.

Biden needing to be +3% on the popular vote to win on the electoral college and the possibility of a 3% shy Trump voter undercount phenomenon is the reason few are comfortable discounting a Trump victory as a slight possibility even with the poll leads where they are. That sort of scenario would probably revolve around Pennsylvania and be uncomfortably close, if Biden recovers the Wisconsin and Michigan portion of the blue wall. Beyond that the state Trump fanboys seem to think they are most likely to flip from last time against the tide elsewhere is Minnesota because it has been drifting right for many election cycles as the farmer with Scandinavian ancestry demographic's penchant for socialism fades away and the state becomes more like its neighbours in flyover terms.

There will be trouble in the streets with a narrow win in either direction because plenty of people on both sides are lapping up the idea that the other side is trying to fix the outcome and there are people on the left as well as the right of American politics that are not shy about going onto the streets for some vigorous protest. Hopefully there will be a Biden landslide with Senate and House majorities also secured by the Democrats and the Republicans will conclude that they need to moderate to regain power given the way demography is shifting against them. Might be a couple of election cycles too soon for that though because Texas flipping will be what resets American politics and that's still in longshot territory this time around.

We'll find out who was calling it correctly soon enough. American society is so bitterly polarised right now that I don't think it is safe to assume that any news outlet or polling outlet is free of bias at the moment. Trafalgar Group's argument appears to be that you need something quick and easy to do to facilitate representative sampling along with a who is your social circle voting for type question to pick up shy Trump voters to get an accurate reading of public opinion. I hope they are wrong on their numbers as they are not what I want to see happen with this election but don't see that as a sound basis for concluding that is the case. Their arguments are plausible enough that it will be interesting to see what unfolds.

The BBC website is now featuring a story about T-cell immunity: https://www.bbc.com/news/health-54781496

https://www.politico.com/amp/news/magazine/2020/10/29/2020-polls-trump-biden-prediction-accurate-2016-433619?__twitter_impression=true

How many times did BBC people speak out against Jimmy Saville and Rolf Harris? That's how hierarchical structures work. If he is clearly losing tomorrow there won't be an orderly queue to stick the boot in, there will be a feeding frenzy. Trump is an entryist outsider that was foisted on the Republicans by a grassroots populist movement that the party bigwigs never wanted but lacked the levers to block unlike the Democrats with Bernie Sanders.

How do you tell people in Shetland that they are now going into the equivalent of tier 4 when they should really be in tier 0 in Nicola's system announced only days ago? Think there's plenty of political incentive to be systematically less restrictive than Boris for a change as long as the new cases curve continues to plateau and then starts to dip in a Scottish context over the next few weeks.

...and there appear to be more angles of attack against Joe Biden on his record over race related issues than there were with Hillary Clinton. He's old enough to have been active politically when school busing/desegregation was the hot button issue in the Archie Bunker era. Stuff he is alleged to have said in that context is now being dredged up and repeated ad nauseam on social media by Trump supporters to target black voters. Hopefully having Kamala Harris as running mate (zero chance Trump would do something similar as Bible Belt evangelicals is where he feels a need to shore up his base given some of his past escapades on the Howard Stern Show etc) is enough to remind people that they need to look first and foremost at what is happening in the present day.

A note of caution from Michael Moore: https://www.dailywire.com/news/michael-moore-bidens-poll-lead-is-not-an-accurate-count Listen, don’t believe these polls, first of all,” Moore said. “And second of all, the Trump vote is always being undercounted. Pollsters, when they actually call a real Trump voter, the Trump voter is very suspicious of the Deep State calling them and asking them who they’re voting for.” I'm in wait and see mode on this because I'm not totally sure the mainstream pollsters can be trusted to not get into a cycle of group think on questionable polling numbers that fit the desired outcome of the American elite when the raw numbers they obtain before they get into applying weightings to try to more accurately gauge shy Trump "deplorables" will be in line with what the people that are commissioning the polls very much want to hear and report through the mass media. We'll find out soon enough. Even allowing for that factor a 10% national lead should translate to a Biden win but it's in no way surprising that Michael Moore would be reaching for the panic button again.

This New York Times article that is worth a look: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/28/upshot/election-polling-racial-gap.html Things appear to be less racially polarised this time because Joe Biden appeals to white voters more than Hillary Clinton did with the flip side being that Trump has gained to a certain extent among non-white voters.

I don't support Trump. f**k off with this shite, welshbairn. I am not insinuating anything.

Don't have time for pish like this. If you think I support Trump you can get to a place rhyming with luck.

Think Biden will win quite comfortably but there are enough outlier polls that put Trump where he needs to be for there to be room for concern. Overall Sleepy Joe doesn't resonate like Crooked Hillary did, and the Hunter Biden in Ukraine angle pales in comparison to what is widely believed about the Clintons. Also, not clear that Trump has actually followed through enough on the things he said he was going to do such as building the wall and saving the coal industry to still be viewed in the manner Michael Moore described in 2016 rather than as just another self-serving politician. : At least some blue collar people in rust belt states like Michigan that went for Trump last time will hopefully avoid voting so myopically against their class interest this time