LongTimeLurker

Thing is though that you probably are not going to get 100% efficacy with a vaccine of this type, which is why a lot of medical professionals are trying to get people to temper their expectations a bit and not view it as a magic bullet. You only need >50% of cases being significantly alleviated to have a shot at approval from what I understand. Let's say deaths are only 25% of what they otherwise would have been after high risk groups have been vaccinated. Is that enough to end the hysteria in the tabloid media and end it from being viewed as a serious threat, if having everything fully normal again creates another surge of new cases like the one we are going through at the moment? Think the powers that be would still be keen on some social distancing to keep the R0 somewhat suppressed so the optics look good from that angle.

Think in layman's terms that this vaccine would train the body's immune system how to deal with a virus with COVID-19's general sort of shape by attaching a fragment of that structural type into another more or less harmless viral structure in the vaccine that the body builds up an immune response to. What's critical is the percentage of elderly people with comorbidities this helps keep alive, because it will need to be most people in that category to put a major dent into the number of deaths.

If it provides the UK elite with a face saving exit strategy from their cycle of imposing lockdown measures every time the new cases curve goes in the wrong direction, it will be far from pointless. Think it's obvious by now that they are never going to admit to the plebs that they got it wrong back in March when they were panicking over things like ventilator provision and shunting the elderly out of hospitals and back into care homes because they believed misleading computer models.

Pandemic just means an epidemic on a global scale, so COVID-19 definitely falls under that definition. Think the politicians in western countries were hoping it wasn't something that was really going to take off for them until the following winter's flu season. Turned out that the R0 number was too high and there were way too many difficult to screen mild and asymptomatic cases for that to be the case, and that it wasn't as dependent on ambient temperature being above freezing but below 20C as it initially appeared to be.

True, but that won't shut people up about Sweden, so isn't the preferred narrative for the UK's political elite right now, who very much need the plebs to keep believing that their lockdowns have made a crucial difference in the larger scheme of things for career longevity reasons.

They'll be hoping they don't come out of the hat and still get the 5k payment or whatever it is for missing out. Hopefully they do and face the logistical challenge of how to still field a team without professional contracts kicking in. Would be quite humorous to watch a Stirling Albion vs Selkirk Vics scenario unfold.

Lockdowns started out as being about flattening the curve so hospitals would not be overwhelmed. The mission creep that unfolded after opinion poll gazing politicians were handed the power to micromanage people's lives to that extent has led to this mess.

It's just a way to make people feel happy about being in level 3 rather than level 4 and forget the "circuit breaker" was originally supposed to end on Nov 2.

The electoral college system means he is still in with a chance. He lost the popular vote last time around, so being behind in the national opinion poll numbers isn't necessarily fatal for him. The Democrats pile up large majorities in large population states like California, Illinois, New York etc, but that doesn't help them get anything extra in the electoral college if the Republicans win narrowly in lots of other places. The so called battleground states are uncomfortably close and that provides a path to a Trump victory even if he is a few points back overall. There appears to be talk of a much higher youth turnout on advanced polls this time though that helps Biden, which looks like good news:

If clubs are going to have a pop in public like that, I don't see why he should be expected to have nothing to say in response.

....and plenty of north region junior and North Caledonian clubs as well. Hopefully the other guy on here's info was accurate as even Fife was in level 1 on that list.

Nicola has an election to win.

They might not be happy about it, but they are very unlikely to give a gaijin grief over this on a bus or train.

It's often the done thing in countries like China and Japan (worked there for 7 years) to wear a mask if you have mild symptoms on something like a cold or the flu or suffer from allergies. Japanese people tend to think westerners are crazy and selfish for not doing this. Had a frank exchange of opinions with my boss in Japan on that subject. Was wearing a mask from reasonably early on with COVID as I knew from my time in Japan that all the stuff in the media about it not being recommended was dubious in terms of the science involved.

Hopefully WoS clubs will be noticing this developing story, before they do anything rash: https://in.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-britain-vaccine-idUKKBN27B0QR https://in.reuters.com/article/health-coronavirus-astrazeneca-vaccine/oxford-covid-19-vaccine-trials-produce-robust-immune-response-in-elderly-ft-idINKBN27B0J1

....only one way to find out basically.

...definitely looks like the UK's exit strategy, if accurate. Hopefully corners don't get cut too much on checking it is actually safe.

...and the idea that there can be no herd immunity suits certain UK policy makers right now just as new restriction levels are kicking in. If we start seeing a large second wave on deaths in Sweden and New York over the next few months it's time to get very concerned about no lasting immunity even in the absence of antibodies as those are the locations that are most likely to have achieved something close to herd immunity.

Partly that no doubt but overestimating the IFR and getting its age profile incorrect also appears to have been a big part of it as well. The latter part appears to be why the Swedes thought the Imperial College model was off and didn't base their strategy around its findings. Personally think the more interesting part of the equation at the moment is why they have no discernible second wave on COVID-19 related deaths unlike the western European countries that imposed drastic lockdowns by legal compulsion rather than simply issuing "strong advice" with clear and consistent messaging from health professionals rather than limelight loving politicians.

The computer models being used to inform UK policy on COVID-19 predicted around 85,000 deaths for Sweden. There were only around 5,000 in reality. Open and inquiring minds are going to want to know why even if it messes up the narrative being peddled by Newsnight and The Guardian.

More or less on the first bit. Think that's what will happen eventually on the second bit one way or another. If it becomes endemic because immunity after infection only has limited duration, people will hopefully keep going on hand sanitising but other measures will be difficult to sustain long term because it just isn't deadly enough to healthy people under 60 for the fear factor to remain where it is now. The onus will wind up being on the vulnerable to do what they can to look after themselves as it is with stuff like the flu.

Think she is trying to get the word out that any vaccine that makes it through Phase 3 any time soon will not be expected to provide the sterilising immunity that would be required to prevent transmission and would be implemented mainly to alleviate severe symptoms in high risk patients (only needs to happen for > 50% in trials to be potentially eligible for FDA approval). That's why there is also a lot of talk of any vaccine only being made available to high risk groups, because how would most people under 50 benefit from that?

Jason Leitch said as recently as a couple of days ago that smaller local games will have fans back first. It's easy for the HL, LL, EoS, WoS, SoS, SJFA and NCL to have fans back on something like a 300 limit.

Good news for Kello Rovers, if true.