LongTimeLurker

Fingers crossed a way can be found to do that.

If Labour weren't led by an 80s hard left throwback who cosied up to the Provos during the Troubles, the DUP would have had more room to manouevre. It was a perfect storm of circumstances that has brought us scarily close to the No Deal cliff edge.

Or one out of twenty seven countries will say, "#### this fur a gemme ay sodgers, oan ye go then", in their best diplomatic French. Fingers crossed we don't go over the cliff edge due to an unforeseen set of circumstances.

...which is why no amount of media pressure is likely to budge the DUP as they know full well that those negotiations are not expected to succeed given all the red lines that the Brexiters have make any arrangement that would prevent a hard border impossible

Petershill then I guess.

Seriously doubt he did this on a whim all on his lonesome. Hopefully, what sometimes gets referred to elsewhere as the "deep state" are trying to find a way to rein in Theresa May because she doesn't seem to be able to take No for an answer on the withdrawal agreement and it really is time to change direction now and try to get this whole mess reversed before it heads over the cliff edge.

At some point the men in grey suits have to appear to tell Theresa May to let it go and accept that she will be viewed by history as having failed on that and that she doesn't have the right to damage the national interest to pursue an ego trip. There is very little chance of the DUP caving in on this, because they will get all kinds of grief from their core electorate if they do: https://www.newsletter.co.uk/news/brain-of-brexit-fears-dup-could-be-bought-into-backstop-u-turn-1-8854080 ...“Already, Dublin politicians are discussing mechanisms to ensure that the interests of ‘the North’ are formally upheld by the Republic, rather as Greek Cyprus notionally represents Turkish Cypriots in EU institutions. “It is possible, I suppose, that the DUP will back down. Unionism has a materialistic side that English observers often miss. The chancellor of the exchequer has reportedly been involved in the discussions, raising suspicions that the government aims to buy the canny Ulstermen and Ulsterwomen. “They may succeed, but one should never underestimate the patriotism that motivates most unionists, nor their bloody-mindedness – their thrawnness to use a good Ulster-Scots word – when they have set their course. Will they really vote for a deal whose author boasts that Northern Ireland is ‘the price’ Britain must pay for Brexit?” ...

Yes, we are already seeing a possible merger between SDLP and Fianna Fail ...and there is a section of moderate Unionist opinion that was definitely willing to contemplate a united Ireland if it was the only way to avoid a hard border. The RoI of today isn't de Valera's Eire any more, so take away the economic case for being in the UK and Unionism would be ####ed in 20 years max.

Do you really need to be spoon fed? If NI is no longer in the same customs space as Great Britain, Dublin starts to become more important than Westminster in people's lives and RoI politicians effectively represent NI in determining macroeconomic policy.

The back stop kicking in would lead inexorably to a united Ireland and most of the Brexiters see it as a price worth paying, which is why some Scottish Tories may or may not be getting paranoid as to what might be agreed with the SNP, if it helps get Brexit through.

In the absence of an EEA type soft Brexit there is no way to avoid a hard border between NI and the RoI unless there are custom checks at the Irish Sea and NI stays in the EU's customs union. Suggestions to the contrary are lies and propaganda.

Sounds like a paranoid delusion, but May's willingness to hand over NI gift wrapped to Dublin through the back stop has to raise a nagging fear at the back of their minds as to whether Scotland is expendable as well if that's the price needed for the Little Englanders to get their Brexit.

It's not fully clear yet whether Bercow's intervention helps or hinders No Deal on the 29th and there may not be a work around that can be used on the very limited time frame that is left. There is a very real chance that the Conservative party is about to split into its Leave and Remain wings and will be unable to function any longer as a credible governing party in its current form, so if anything untoward happens on the extension from the EU they may not act rationally in the way most of us would want them to. Grab the popcorn basically and stock up on tinned goods just in case...

Except they aren't going to go away and will keep droning on about the voters being betrayed. Very few people thought Brexit would mean a No Deal cliff edge back in 2016, so it's reasonable to hold a vote confirming that's what the electorate really want given it has been impossible to reach a withdrawal deal that could be approved by Westminster. If they lose, there's no issue with democracy at that point.

...which would need to be voted through parliament next week as well and is probably the only way out of this mess. Think that condition has to be seen as coming from the EU this week and being accepted reluctantly by Westminster, because neither the Tories or Labour will take the initiative on that for fear of alienating Leave voters. Fingers crossed there is no EU government equivalent of the DUP with an agenda of their own that can't be satisfied before the clocks runs down to zero or we could still get No Deal.

If the EU says No to the extension in some way (people keep mentioning Italy) will she be able to bring herself to try to revoke Article 50 when it will probably irrevocably split her party? That's definitely the scary angle to all of this.

Time for some Ukrainian rada style politics:

Probably all carefully choreographed to keep the Tory-DUP government intact for as long as possible to keep Corbyn out. Hopefully they bite the bullet, revoke Article 50 so Westminster can recover the initiative that was lost when Theresa May stupidly invoked Article 50 before she had the basis for an acceptable withdrawal deal giving the EU all the leverage in the negotiations. Then they can have a No Deal vs Remain referendum to settle the issue.

So the ball is in the EU's court and they can now drive a hard bargain on Thursday on what Theresa May needs to do to get an extension, because as things stand if the HoC won't accept No deal under any circumstances the only way to avoid that in the absence of an extension would be to revoke article 50.

If we finally stumble through to the whole mess getting reversed in a second referendum it will all have worked out for the best. The DUP were always going to be a lot keener on No Deal than May's deal as it kept the Union intact and that may have encouraged the ERG types into overplaying their hand. Fingers crossed anyway. The Daily Heil seem to think the vote will be called off now and May will seek a two year extension: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6821225/May-course-cancel-vote-agree-lengthy-delay-Brexit.html?ito=social-twitter_dailymailUK

Interesting way to approach the negotiations with the DUP: You would almost get the impression that he is a Remainer who wants a long extension.

If all the ERG types go for it, the numbers might still stack up if there are enough Labour MPs willing to back it. Long shot but not completely impossible.

In the absence of the back stop there can only be an open border between NI and the RoI long term if there is EEA type status for all of the UK. The Brexiters don't want that and want the UK to have completely separate trade deals from those negotiated by the EU. The only reason that NI hasn't been thrown under the bus by now by May and co so that could be readily achieved for the rest of the UK in NI's absence is that the DUP hold the balance of power.

Think the bit you are missing is that keeping the DUP happy involves keeping all of the UK tied to the EU to an extent that would infuriate most ERG types. Meanwhile in Belfast, which way the DUP jumps probably revolves around whether what David Trimble has to say at the moment: https://www.newsletter.co.uk/news/brexit-lord-trimble-backs-changes-in-backstop-1-8852648 resonates more with their electoral base than what Jim Allister has to say: https://www.newsletter.co.uk/news/jim-allister-eu-backstop-would-be-the-end-of-northern-ireland-1-8852813 Suspect it will be the latter viewpoint, because an eventual united Ireland was the clear original intent of the back stop. {Edit: something I thought I would never see. Jim Wells being taken seriously by The Guardian: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/mar/18/dup-backing-will-not-secure-may-brexit-deal-says-jim-wells ...However, Wells said the DUP remained undecided on whether the government had secured enough changes on the border insurance policy for the party’s MPs to back the deal. “We still have a huge difficulty with the backstop because we see it as a waiting room for constitutional change. We could find ourself locked in there for ever,” he said...}

If ITN have their finger on the pulse: https://www.itv.com/news/2019-03-17/what-the-pm-offered-the-dup/ Theresa May has offered the DUP what amounts to a soft Brexit but only in a manner that could easily be repealed by any future government once the DUP no longer hold the balance of power. They would be mugs to take that and it will be interesting to see how the ERG types respond.