DeeTillEhDeh
-
Posts
33,824 -
Joined
-
Last visited
-
Days Won
4
Content Type
Profiles
Forums
Events
Store
Posts posted by DeeTillEhDeh
-
-
IP
Not voting is an option. That's why don't know can't be ignored. You can't assume they will break evenly to either side or not vote at all.You MUST if you want anything statistically relevant.
"Don't Know" isn't a ballot paper option.
Also I would say that Panelbase is not exactly the best organisation to be doing any sort of polling. Poor screening is one of the major criticisms that has been aimed in their direction.
I'd be more inclined to look at the trend with the more reputable polling organisations.
What would be more interesting if there had been private polling showing a trend either way - but I'm not aware there has been anything of significance leaked by either campaign.
My gut tells me that things (for the moment) are pretty static. That may change but we shall see.
0 -
You just can't exclude don't knows.Eh? The panelbase (?) poll puts No on 53% and Yes on 47%.
Where are you getting 10% swing from?
If you are including Dont Knows you really need to justify this because I can't follow that logic.
0 -
So what % do you class as seismic?
If Yes start to consistently get well above 40% (heading towards 45%) then they have a serious chance. Even on the most optimistic polls Yes require a swing of around 20% (effectively +10%). That's tough.
0 -
A seismic shift? The last poll showed a 3% swing would have Yes winning
As most polls have a +/- 3% error then that's meaningless.
0 -
There are still a lot of voters that are not really engaging with the campaign as yet.
The referendum won't be lost or won in March. Many will make up their minds in the official campaign period.
Yes it's nice to see your campaign in the lead or your campaign showing momentum, but it's only a snap shot of how things are at the moment.
In my opinion it will be late August early September before we know who is likely to win this referendum.
I'd agree to an extent. But unless there is seismic shift in voting intentions then Yes still face an uphill battle.
0 -
No' as big as yours . . .As is the space between your ears.
0 -
That is a curious one.
They've threatened everything bar nuclear war and pestilence and the No campaign still can't get above 60%. In fact they are struggling to get above 50% actually.
That tells me that they've shot their bolt because if their fear message hasn't been sold to people yet then fear won't suddenly change them in the next few months.
The question is simply whether the Yes campaign have enough time and enough credibility to persuade another 10% of voters to go for a Yes.
The polls seem to have settled at 50-40 for No or thereabouts but as someone else above said, there's likely to be a massive turnout for this and the polling system lacks the data to know how that can turn out. This is about as close to a completely unknown situation as we've witnessed in recent times.
Personally think the No campaign have been pish so far - Yes better organised. Yet no real change in voting intentions.
0 -
As the option I wanted isn't on the ballot paper I feel like I'm between a rock and a hard place.
Increasingly I feel it won't matter either way - I'll vote but it may well be a spoilt ballot given the campaigns from both sides.
Certainly No haven't made a proper case for the Union yet and Yes have a number of key areas that l feel need a lot more clarity.
Best result for me would be a narrow win for No and there being no option but to devolve more powers when (not if) the SNP win the next Scottish Parliament elections.
0 -
In Dundee the areas that were staunchly Labour that switched to SNP over the past 10-15 years were all in what you could call deprived areas. So it doesn't surprise me - Labour lost touch with it's core vote and the only place it could go was the SSP and the SNP. Once the Trots imploded the SNP were the only real option for disillusioned Labour voters. The same may be true regards independence - a feeling if it can't get any worse. For middle income voters the SNP (and independence) is seen as more of a risk - the notion of we are not doing too badly so we don't want to risk change.You got your tiny wee jump after the big and much heralded white paper came out, now it's gone after the better together campaign fought back. Support for yes is (unsurprisingly) falling given all the uncertainty regarding the currency and the EU. You're not only failing to make any head way, you're actually losing ground. As some yes voters have said in this thread, 60%-40% is a realistic prediction for September, although 70-30 wouldn't surprise me. Yes is getting humped, and it's absolutely fantastic to watch
I agree that the reaction of the yes campaigners and supporters to differing polls stinks of hypocrisy, good point. It's as if they can't face up to the reality of their impending defeat?
An STV journo asked wee Eck a good question last night. Words to the effect of ' Are you thinking about managing defeat now? ' Wee Ecks face was a picture for a second, he just looked a bit sad, and it's clear that's exactly what he's thinking about, and who can blame him. He then snapped back into delusion mode and went for the ' we will win blah blah ' diatribe. Poor guy, wonder if he will retire after the defeat? He certainly should, he's clearly struggling badly.
You say i'm trolling, then link to the exact same poll i linked too.
Are you trolling too?
Look out, facebook boy is back
One interesting part of the poll i and Ivo linked too was the disparity between deprived areas and affluent areas:
It's something i had noticed when talking to people about the debate, but had never seen in a poll. The more affluent they are, the more likely they are to be behind the union, the less affluent, the more likely they are to be separatists. In the nations most affluent areas support for yes is astoundingly low, only 20%. Anyone have any idea why?
That might be a simplification of things - people do vote for all sorts of reasons. I know a number of folk who will consistently vote SNP in elections but No in the referendum - I also know some who vote Labour who will vote Yes.
0 -
I think it will be incredibly close. Anyone saying it will be a landslide for either side is quite simply over-confident.
I think it will be a 52% - 48% for either side.
We could run a book on the %s - I'd say the split will be 57% No 43% Yes.
0 -
Why would it be a 10 pt deduction?
Should be at least the same as us -25 pts.
Could be even harder if they think they are deliberately flouting the rules to take the penalty now when its effect would be meaningless.
0 -
It's the same rumour. The last 18 months worth have been warning of this.
This time I don't think it is a rumour. The denials are very familiar to those when we went in to administration a second time.
0 -
Another Rangers administration rumour? Must be less than two weeks since the last one. Have heard this repeatedly over the last 18 months - will believe it when I see it.
This one looks like it has legs though.
0 -
I thought we were the Kings of Dubious Ownership - The Rangers make Dundee look like a paragon of virtue by comparison.Imagine you're a football fan and the best hope for your club is someone like Dave King.
How fucking depressing must that be.
0 -
Tbh I have not really seen that sort of language here. Have seen it on The Scotsman comments pages - usually from the same individuals who take afront that you might actually disagree with them. Some have been so bad I wondered if they were unionists posing as N(n)ationalists to give them a bad name.Not a word I have ever used. Although I do enjoy a chuckle at the Cyberbrits who default to the use words like "porridge" and "groats" and the ever present "freedom". Im sure you know about that.
The crazy thing is that the vote won't be determined online as some of the key voters will either not use those sorts of sites or be technologically averse (yes even in this day and age).
The big things in the Yes campaign's favour is that the SNP are probably the best organised of the political parties on the ground and that the Yes vote is probably not as soft as the No/undecided vote.
The big negative for the Yes campaign is that it is still dominated by the SNP and the other voices are not being heard. I think, for example, the argument over Currency Union has not been well-handled, and could and should have been presented in a lot more concilliatory fashion.
The problem is that the arguments by both sides are being presented as black/white arguments when in reality they are not as clear-cut as some would have us believe.
My biggest fear is not a Yes vote but a narrow win by either side - especially a narrow No vote - the spectre of neverendums does not appeal to me in the slightest.
0 -
I read that link and it confirms what I was saying - what might look like a neutral poll isn't. That's not just because he SNP commissioned it - if it had been Labour or the Tories I would have been just as sceptical.
At the end of the day the only poll that matters is the one in September.
0 -
The Donside byelection canvassing was done by the SNP - perhaps you have more information about the methodology used here but I'd hardly be rushing to use this as particularly strong evidence. Studies have shown that polls can be manipulated massively if certain questions are asked in the run-up to the main question. That's why it is always interesting to read exactly how these things are conducted. While the results of the PCS election are striking, again it only represents one subset of the population and the majority did opt for not supporting either campaign officially.
I accept that any one poll can be bollocks, but it is rare for many polls to be totally wrong. That isn't to say that things can't change, but I'd argue that the current polls reflect a fairly accurate view of the current state of play. I only glanced quickly at the 2011 polls but the ones conducted closer to the time of election seemed to be broadly right IIRC. Nate Silver's book 'The Signal and the Noise' is pretty good on this subject and a really interesting read.
I actually think your whole article is made weaker by the inclusion of the various polls on football fora. Everyone knows that they're not really representative and so easily manipulated as to be pretty worthless.
You are right about manipulation. I remember being shown a long time ago by my marketing lecturer how subtle rephrasing of a question can give completely different responses.
It's an old joke that marketing executives, when drawing up a market research survey, ask their clients not what questions they want but what answers they want.
0 -
My new blog article, 'Poll after poll returns YES vote', is now online at http://saoralba2014.blogspot.co.uk/
Please read and share.
(Seemed like the best thread for it)
Online polls are not worth the paper they are not written on.
That's not just the type of political poll that is open to hijacking by interested parties eg multi-voting - most polls online don't have the rigour required for serious analysis.
0 -
On currency if Scotland becomes an independent country GBP 1/3 New currency 3/1 Euro 10/1, That's of Feb. 13, that's from Ladbrokes Politics
Using the pound and currency union (as envisaged by the Yes campaign) are not the same thing.
0 -
That Christmas day episode has to be one of the most incoherent pieces of pretentious shite I have ever seen in the history of DW.
0 -
A lot has been said about the poor batting but it clearly has not helped that the bowlers are completely out of form. In the past Anderson, Swann and Broad have all managed to save the team - this series there have only been fleeting glimpses of that ability.
0 -
WTF? Collapsing against Lyon?
They're at it now surely.
I find it bizarre too - he's a pretty average spinner - not a Warne.
0 -
The summer Ashes papered over a lot of cracks. 3-0 flattered England - they got lucky with the weather a few times and whenever batting or bowling failed the other would cover for that failing.
This series they have had both batting and bowling failing at the same time - in fact I'd go as far to say that the issue has not been poor batting but rank rotten (bar the first innings here) bowling.
0 -
The Hunger Games - Catching Fire
Disagree with others about the start - it was absolutely necessary for the plot. Lawrence dominated this film with Phillip Seymour Hoffman excellent as Plutarch. Sutherland is a perfect foil - just the hint of menacing without being camp and over the top - you felt in the scenes with his granddaughter he would have happily had the Peacekeepers deal with her too.
0
Latest Polls and Latest Odds
in The Politics Forum
Posted
There are 2 other options - don't vote or spoil you ballot.
Panelbase - issues with how they screen their polls - this is not just for the independence polls but all of them. They just aren't reliable imho. In any case I'm not a great believer in looking at one-off polls - you are better looking at trends across polls - it still looks static to me.
That could change of course but the nearer we get to September the less time to persuade. I still believe Yes have a chance but that is not polls but pure gut instinct telling me that the No vote is softer than the Yes vote.