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Ando

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Posts posted by Ando

  1. Clear to see that Alex Salmond has gave a better account for himself than Brown did as Twitter is moaning, 'You're giving Salmond an easy time, Brown had much harder questions!!!'.

    What did you think?

    I didn't see the start so only saw a bit of Broon and all Salmond but I though Dimbleby was being a cnut to the latter.

    Was he hard on Broon?

  2. When a bookmaker decides it's odds it will first adjust any probabilities on how much money is anticipated to be gambled. In the instance of that horse race they would have anticipated that Australia with it's wonderful form and getting tipped by lots of tipsters that a lot of money would be placed on it. So it's odds would be significantly below the % chance of the probability occurring. They are trying to limit their liabilities so ideally no matter what horse wins, they make a % of the total money gambled.

    In Tennis if Tomas Berdych was to play Andy Murray, the British bookmakers would anticipate more money going on Andy and adjust his odds accordingly. He would be favourite to win. However Berdych has a better head to head record against Murray, and beats him more often than Andy Murray beats Tomas. So now you have Murray as odds on favourite but he wins 40% of the time.

    Bookmakers odds don't always reflect actual probabilities of occurrence. You can get 7/2 on Yes winning the referendum which represents a 22% occurrence. I think both sides would both agree that the yes side has a better than 22% chance of it occurring. The value is certainly on Yes.

    Makes sense, cheers.

  3. I genuinely don't know how odds are produced, there must be some balancing though with stakes to give the bookies a small profit whatever the outcome, in most cases?

    I do bet a lot, and hot favourite's do lose, quite often.

    Take the horse Australia this weekend for example, "unbeatable" and heavily backed with odds of 1/4 on.

    It came second to the 7/1 2nd favourite.

    Second fav had the best jockey and won the race by a neck.

  4. I had a poll of sorts at work today and almost every person surprised me so I'm absolutely fcuked if I can call how this is going to go.

    We had a department day out bullshit thing then food after, I made a wee comment about this being the Yes side of the table based on myself and a few others I assumed were good guys, and almost everyone who has a vote said something along the lines of "well I better move to the other side then".

    My boss was 100% No the last time we talked, right into his investments and has the Aberdeen standard massive mortgage and private school fees. Told me today he has already voted Yes.

    Boy at same level as me, bit of a mini me in relation to my boss, middle class personified. I always assumed he was No but today he tells me he's 100% Yes and always has been.

    French bird who works for me, tidy but looks a bit like a horse from certain angles, always assumed from our chats she was a good guy, she's deffo a No. Cheval.

    Rough bird, said she was undecided but I thought she was leaning to Yes is 100% No.

    Weird boy, thought he was a mute and wouldn't bother, he's 100% Yes.

    English boy 1, was 80% No last year, now he's 100% Yes.

    English boy 2, new boy, 100% No.

    Posh boy, was 50/50 before but confirms today he's 100% Yes.

    Weegie Sevco, 100% No, surprisingly.

    Spanish, Jordanian, Indian and Canadian (one per country) didn't think it was right they should vote so didn't register, they got telt.

    So, 14 of us, I thought it would be 50/50 at best but its actually 60/40 Yes excluding the four not registered.

    Seems really pointless now I've typed this out to be fair.

  5. Is the poll coming out at midnight the one which people are talking about as 39/38? Or is it an entirely different one?

    Ta.

    The tweets I read, and I don't normally use twitter so I don't know how reliable the sources are, were all talking about the TNS one being 41/41/18 and that was meant to be under wraps until midnight.

    Most on here are quoting 39/38/23 so it's probably pish.

  6. Really good point made above, if 20% (and I can't believe that btw) people still haven't made up their mind, which has been a consistent % of DK's for some time, yet the Yes share has greatly increased it can only mean one of two things:

    1. No voters have switched to Yes

    or

    2. DK voters have switched to Yes and a similar amount of No voters have switched to DK.

    Or am I being too simplistic?

  7. I was getting pressured into getting a new phone so I could pass down the Nexus 4. I was really happy with the 4 and didn't want to change, but went for it today and got an invite and bought one of these. Worth a gamble.

    http://www.techradar.com/reviews/phones/mobile-phones/oneplus-one-1244307/review

    I was under the same pressure as you (a page ago) and reluctantly handed over my Nexus 4 to my wife and bought myself a Nexus 5.

    Had it a few days now and it's even better than the 4, nothing spectacular, a bit quicker, camera is better, picture is brighter and clearer watching Sky go, phone is thinner and noticeably lighter.

  8. I tried both the Nexus 5 and the LG G3 today and have bought the Nexus.

    Really not a lot of difference from my Nexus 4 but I loved the 4 so I'm happy with it.

    Saved a fair amount over the LG so I've also bought the LG G Watch, linked with Android Wear to pair it with the Nexus 5.

    Had it on for two hours and its pretty much pointless!

  9. Slice = the round shit you get on the cheap in corner shops.

    Lorne = the same shit you get but from posh arseholes who can't admit they're normal

    Square = what it is.

    How can it be called "square" when it isn't even square?

    No many posh people in The Democratic Independent Peoples Republic of Dundee, and its Lorne.

  10. Ladbrokes have upped their Yes percentage to now over 46.5% at 10/11.

    I wish I had lumped my overdraft on it when over 42.5% at the same price last week.

    ETA, a wave of optimism just encouraged me to have a wee punt on Yes over 55% at 7/1 with bet 365.

  11. My street of about 30 houses is mostly filled with older people, only a couple of houses with kids.

    There are 6 houses including mine with Yes posters and car stickers and nothing else until yesterday my neighbour two down put a massive hand drawn "NO" sign in his car, covering most of his rear window.

    It is white a1 paper with a thin hand written N and a fat O that has been drawn around something circular then coloured in, nothing else.

    FAF.

    He's an old English boy, sound as f**k but his Mrs put out UJ bunting when it was the Royal Wedding a few years ago so I had an inclining what way there vote was going.

  12. Does anyone have the LG G3? I'm looking to upgrade and interested by this handset.

    I currently have a Nexus 4 and love it, everything works perfectly, synched and is very intuitive so I'm a bit apprehensive about moving away from Google stock but as they're both LG made I'm hoping the interface is very similar.

    In an ideal world I'd wait a few months and get the rumoured Nexus 6 but my wife's phone is fucked so I'm giving her my Nexus 4 and getting myself a new one as she doesn't bother about phones at all.

    So I think its a straight choice between Nexus 5 and LG G3, which is about £100 more, any views on either?

    I use an iPhone 5 for work and really can't take to it.

  13. I see Ladbrokes have changes the 10/11 price on Yes percentage up to over 45.5%, this was 42.5% last week.

    Paddy Power have went even higher, their standard 10/11 on Yes percentage is now up to over 46.5%, from 42.5% last month.

    A surprising one for me today is BetVictor have Yes percentage over 54% at 7/2, and shortening. I don't know for sure but suspect this would have been 10/1 or so a month ago?

    I have a fair few small bets, totalling just shy of £50 on a Yes victory at 11/2, 5/1 and 9/2 with bet365, It's now just a touch over 5/2 with the same bookie.

    No is still the clear favourite, as short as 2/11 is some bookies, down to 2/7 with the main ones.

  14. Disappointed he's signed for ewes, so is he by the looks of things. I think those extra 70 miles from Stirling will be good for him too.

    I really want him to get his career back on track but was rather it wasn't with Aberdeen. Hopefully he has a good 6 months then signs a pre-contract with another English club and then sits on his erse for the remainder of his time up here.

    But them I'm a bitter individual.

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