Saltire
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Posts posted by Saltire
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3 hours ago, Henderson to deliver ..... said:
How do you do fellow football supporters ?
I see his point, but it's more like no-one remembers who scored the winning goal in the cup final, but they do remember who loaded the kit onto the coach.
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2 minutes ago, scottsdad said:
This right here is why nobody voted Alba. Pushing the "vote SNP get unionists" narrative just alienates people. Alba supporters have consistently trashed the SNP and the Greens, not bothering much with the Tories and Labour.
Add to this, their offer to the public was just some electoral maths, fronted by a discredited leader and surrounded by people wielding their pet grievances. The energy of Alba supporters was spent attacking Nicola Sturgeon and agonising over Trans rights. Honestly, is it any wonder they did so poorly?
Let me finish with one thing. My parents went both votes SNP. Not because they are desperate for indyref 2, not because they sat and worked out the best mathematical way to get a Yes majority. But because they were impressed with Nicola Sturgeon during the pandemic. As a pair of older voters they thought she did well, and so voted for her. How would you ever hope to persuade folk like my parents to vote for a party that is pretty toxic?
Exactly the same with my mother.
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On 08/05/2021 at 12:33, tamthebam said:
Is it bias or just stupidity but to pick one result: Aberdeenshire East
"Voting showed a swing of 6.1% from SNP to the Conservatives"
Then you click on the result which shows the difference between vote share from the last time
SNP vote share down 1%. Tories up 13% but Lib Dems and Labour down 11%. So if anything there's been a big swing of Unionist votes from Labour and Lib Dems to the Tories rather than from SNP to Tories
There's no bias, in each constiuency they do a simple calculation which is the change in percentage share of the vote from this election to the last election. They then look at the relative difference between the parties and divide it by two. So for Aberdeenshire East. I aklway think it's a relatively meaningless measure unless both votes have moved significantly.
% % % 2021 2016 Change SNP 44.63 45.79 -1.16 Tory 40.02 28.99 11.03 Swing 0.5 x (11.03-(-1.16)) = 6.10% SNP to the Tories 0 -
10 minutes ago, Dawson Park Boy said:
On a more general point, and it’s what the wings and alba people go on about.
Does the current SNP, and in particular Nicola Sturgeon, actually want a referendum and indeed independence?
Possibly wishful thinking on my part, but I don’t think they do.
So much easier to sit in Holyrood , receive swathes of money from Westminster under Barnett, blame everything that goes wrong on Boris and receive good pay and perks. Becoming an SNP politician is just like Labour of yesteryear. Pick the party which is most likely to get me a seat and you’re in. Do these people have the hunger, the appetite for the fight? I doubt it. We are in the age of the professional politician and the party is irrelevant. Why rock the boat?
That just doesn't hold water. I was a member of the SNP before the devolution settlement, before the SNP was the leading party in all elections, and beyond. After 1997, If you simply wanted to run a devolved government you had the option to join a unionist left, right or centrist (sic) party with that intent and hold that position.
You joined the SNP because you believed that the Scottish people are best placed to make our own decisions. Until devolution, being in the SNP was like being at the base of a very tall mountain and you knew it was a difficult climb ahead.
There is not one iota of doubt that Nicola Sturgeon and the SNP want independence and that is why the timing of a referendum is so important and why the Alba Party approach is flawed. Competence and timing are key here and Nicola Sturgeon is in top of both.
As for Wings Over Scotland, I did for a period read the articles which to be fair were always very well written and chimed with my thinking. At some point it all went wrong, and the anti-Sturgeon line lacked substance, evidence or credibility. I hope that those still engaged will gradually come away from it.
I believe we can win an independence referendum and build a Scotland with room for voices from all reasonable political and social positions.
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Morecambe and Morecombe.
Well, neither of them is Wise!
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1 hour ago, Cosmic Joe said:
Where would the boundaries be?
Exactly where they are today plus Berwick!
I know the thread is humourous, but remember it was 40% for the SNP in the three constituencies and you don't need to go too far back to when most consitituencies across Scotland were polling below 20% for the SNP so the south is hardly a lost cause.
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Ian Murray just said Anas Sarwar won as leader!!!!!!!
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4 minutes ago, glasgow-sheep said:7 minutes ago, Saltire said:No it's more likely 2 in Lothian and one each in the other two.
Doesn't make 9
They have 5 already.
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1 minute ago, Have some faith in Magic said:
Can't see it as I thought it would have been predicated on two from Glasgow?
No it's more likely 2 in Lothian and one each in the other two.
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Just now, glasgow-sheep said:
Maybe been mentioned but doesn't look like the BBC prediction of 9 Green is likely?
There's still, South, Mid Scotland and Lothian to come.
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2 minutes ago, MP_MFC said:
This isn't correct, an additional 8191 votes takes the SNP to 15373 from 14554, this isn't STV. Labour still wins at round 7.
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1 minute ago, MP_MFC said:
BBC still sticking with 63...SNP going to lose all 3 on the south list?
Yes, they picked up two constituencies and the share of the list vote may not be high enough to sneak in on 7th.
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Although not identical to their Westminster Constituencies, the nearest equivalent in the Scottish Parliament had the following results for the list. Does this de-legitmise their possition and should they resign and allow by elections?
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Forecast for Central Scotland by prorating from the 5 constituencies with Regional List Votes declared.
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7 minutes ago, topcat(The most tip top) said:
Predicting the share of list votes from the share of constituency votes isn’t the most reliable of measures
Those are the list votes for the constituencies not FPTP.
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3 minutes ago, eez-eh said:
I admire your optimist but it would need to rise mahoosively for the remaining constituencies to have any chance of that happening.
Ok I've prorated all the parties votes for 9 seats and my initial inclination to ignore the SNP on the list looks to have been correct.
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1 minute ago, GordonS said:
Ah hang on hang on. The party shares are likely to stay broadly the same as the votes come in from the other 4 constituencies. But the SNP's divisor will rise, almost certainly to 10. You were right in the first place, just ignore me!
Yes but I was dividing the toatl vote for 5 constituencies by 10!!! I'll keep going anyway.
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4 minutes ago, eez-eh said:
Again - you’re only dividing the SNP vote by 6 here but it’s highly likely they’ll win all 9 seats so you’ll need to divide by 10.
Yes but the share of the vote is what matters and the SNP total is creeping up with every constituency that is counted so at 45% the number still look good even when you divide by 10.
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The Central Scotland numbers looks like on results to date the SNP picks up 2 additional members from the list!!!!!
Both votes SNP might actually be working if the SNP gets above 45% on the list.
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1 minute ago, GordonS said:
Yeah, that's pretty extraordinary if the SNP could pick up a list seat in Glasgow. It might bring the majority back into sight.
Tidied up the spreadsheet and putting in Central now.
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10 minutes ago, GordonS said:
Why are you dividing the SNP by 10? It should be divided by 6.
Good spot Gordie, it looks like the SNP picks up at round 6!!!!! Sorry It's late and I'm rushing.
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Updated List MSPs for Glasgow based on the 5 Glasgow results on Ballot Box Scotland
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35 minutes ago, Adamski said:
The list vote for Glasgow Southside.
If that is replicated across Glasgow, Labour and the Greens will each pick up 3 list MSPs and the Tories 1 .
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There must be a Brexit impact here looking at the transfer of votes c.f. 2016.
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Are YOU Voting for the Alba Party?
in The Politics Forum
Posted
Sorry Burning Barns, the D'Hondt system works on the basis that it is intended to redress the imbalance of MSPs versus share of the vote in the constituencies. It isn't intended to allow an imbalance of representation by giving voters the chance to artificially inflate representation by introducing "colt teams" to politics.
I'd rather all MSPs were proportionately allocated on a regional basis, more accurately reflecting the views of the whole electorate. Hopefully that will be the case with independence.