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Will the Blairites defect?


Fide

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Firstly most Blairites expect Corbyn to fail soon so it would be a bit daft to leave a party that might soon be led by David Milliband or so on.

Then most significant Blairites have pretty solid seats. They would be utterly murdered in a by election. Even those in marginals would like see a big swing to Labour for a by-election by the' by-election effect', a newly energised base including those who did not vote or voted Green and the usual modern by election that sees Tories bogging off to Kipperland for the day, more so if asked to back an ex Labour MP. Added to that no one really likes a turn coat.

There is nowhere to split into for an SDP type split. The old SDP still exist as the Lib Dems, the Greens are gobbling up far left votes and university town liberal voters, the kippers the far right and disaffected working class votes. In the early 80s the gulf between Thatcherism and Foot was gigantic. The SDP were briefly the most popular party in the country. Ex Blairites would be just that, Tony Blairs b*****d children. Few places in the UK love them, they have no base in the country beyond the staff of the Guardian.

UK politics is in a very funny place at the minute. Most expect Corbyn to fail, but there is a huge gap he could fill. If he does not cock up too much his Mr Smith Goes to Washington act could be as popular as Farages bloke in a pub thing. If people take to him as a cranky leftie but honest in his crankieness he could get close to a majority in a general election. Chances are it will all fall apart, especially in the key marginals. But there is a chance for comes across as earnest and honest.

Who knows.

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UK politics is in a very funny place at the minute. Most expect Corbyn to fail, but there is a huge gap he could fill.

Agreed. I think he has every chance of doing well with the public. Even the snooty response to his PMQs performance from the Tories and Pete Wishart elitist types didn't seem to be replicated in the vox pops I saw afterwards. People seemed to quite like it.

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As predicted, the Blairites have been talking to Tim Farron - http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-34283161.

"I've had various unsolicited texts, some of them over the weekend, where I felt like I was being an agony aunt rather than anything else.

"People who have been members of the [Labour] party for as long as I've been a member of mine who feel that they don't recognise their party anymore and feel deeply distressed."

With the Lib Dems over-represented in the Lords, he's got nothing to offer the careerists. Will they go to the Tories instead?

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Enjoy yer drinks!

I have to agree really jmo. U are a tory mate

Do you have that response ready to copy and paste or what? Almost every single post jmo or someone makes (usually pretty innocuous and well thought out) the same people seem to jump on it with the "Hahaha ur a Red Tory" stuff without bothering to actually refute anything.
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Do you have that response ready to copy and paste or what? Almost every single post jmo or someone makes (usually pretty innocuous and well thought out) the same people seem to jump on it with the "Hahaha ur a Red Tory" stuff without bothering to actually refute anything.

The Lambie character is astonishingly thick.

Asking him to post anything that isn't a cut and paste from Twitter or involving Butchir's Aprin is really asking the impossible.

sorry haha meight!!

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Do you have that response ready to copy and paste or what? Almost every single post jmo or someone makes (usually pretty innocuous and well thought out) the same people seem to jump on it with the "Hahaha ur a Red Tory" stuff without bothering to actually refute anything.

Don't think I've ever used it before; but I'll bow to your superior knowledge on the 'cut and paste' subject

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As predicted, the Blairites have been talking to Tim Farron - http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-34283161.

"I've had various unsolicited texts, some of them over the weekend, where I felt like I was being an agony aunt rather than anything else.

"People who have been members of the [Labour] party for as long as I've been a member of mine who feel that they don't recognise their party anymore and feel deeply distressed."

With the Lib Dems over-represented in the Lords, he's got nothing to offer the careerists. Will they go to the Tories instead?

Bullshit. There is not one Blairite who thinks going across to the libs and facing a by-election with an energised left wing activist base is a winner. 4 years time, sagging Corbyn party, resurgent LibDems maybe. But they first have to make sure Corbyn is not going to screw up so bad they are back in power in 2 years time and the Corbyn surge peters out enough after that the Libs become relevant. .

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