Will the Blairites defect?

[Fide]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-34267886

Just speculation for the moment, but there is chatter regarding several of the more Blairite MPs crossing the floor, as they feel politically closer to Gideon & Call Me Dave than Corbyn & McDonnell.

Thoughts? Also, who do you think may defect if it comes to it? Simon Danzcuk? Tristram Hunt? Who else?

[John Lambies Doos]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-34267886

Just speculation for the moment, but there is chatter regarding several of the more Blairite MPs crossing the floor, as they feel politically closer to Gideon & Call Me Dave than Corbyn & McDonnell.

Thoughts? Also, who do you think may defect if it comes to it? Simon Danzcuk? Tristram Hunt? Who else?

That would be hilarious. Labour

[BFTD]

There should be nobody in any way surprised by the concept of Blairites having no ideological problems with joining the Conservative Party. Also, a prime concern of their philosophy is remaining in power at all costs, so this would be the obvious answer to that. Even the man himself would have no problem with it, on the understanding that he retained his grandee position in his new party's hierarchy.

I made the mistake of scrolling down to the comments section of that article, however. Christ almighty.

[Bishop Briggs]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-34267886

Just speculation for the moment, but there is chatter regarding several of the more Blairite MPs crossing the floor, as they feel politically closer to Gideon & Call Me Dave than Corbyn & McDonnell.

Thoughts? Also, who do you think may defect if it comes to it? Simon Danzcuk? Tristram Hunt? Who else?

The big problem for potential defectors is that they would lose their safe seats. There is no guarantee that Conservative members would select them for 2020. The Blairites who under threat of deselection will jump first.

A couple of weeks ago, Channel 4 News said that Unite members are planning to deselect Simon Danzcuk and Tristram Hunt. It also reported that Corbyn's supporters in Lewisham are supposedly targeting Heidi Alexander, Jim Dowd and Vicky Foxcroft. Alexander is now in the Shadow Cabinet so she should be safe.

The obvious potential defectors would be Blairite MPs. They include Hunt, Chuka Umunna, Liz Kendall, Rachel Reeves, Chris Leslie, Stella Creasy and Stephen Twigg. Blairite MPs in the Shadow Cabinet include Caroline Flint, Seema Malhotra and Lucy Powell.

The Tories would love to recruit Dan Jarvis. He's a Sandhurst graduate and had a distinguished military career. I'd be surprised if he's happy with Corbyn as Leader.

[welshbairn]

They might try another split like the SDP. They could call it Continuity Labour or The Real Labour Party. I bet Blair would come back if they called it the Christian Democrats, which they have most in common with amongst European parties.

[Bishop Briggs]

They might try another split like the SDP. They could call it Continuity Labour or The Real Labour Party. I bet Blair would come back if they called it the Christian Democrats, which they have most in common with amongst European parties.

Or defect to the Lib Dems which, under Tim Farron, will now distance themselves from the Coalition and their record in office.

Blair would not dare to return to active politics. In any case, he's more interested in international power politics and earning loads of money.

[paranoid android]

A lot of them were in the wrong party to begin with, as was Blair.

[harry94]

A 'Blairite' isn't necessarily a right wing term; it's someone who wants to be ruthless in manoeuvring the party to win. Rightly or wrongly, they will look at what Middle England wants and try to appeal to them the best they can. Just because there is support closer to many aspects of policy from George Osborne doesn't mean that the Conservative vision doesn't disgust them in many ways. I'm not saying I agree with that completely but their issue with electability is entirely reasonable considering the political climate in England and as much as I don't plan to support the Labour Party, I'd prefer a much less courageous Labour Party to any Conservative Party.

If they were to join the Conservatives, I could see them becoming their own little group again that would end up fighting with the leadership. Backbench Conservative MPs go apeshit at the leadership for not being right wing enough and it's only since the election that they seem to be content. Add in a large group of people who are pushing the party further to the left than they are and then you are just waiting for them to kick off.

The more natural defection would be to the Lib Dems but that would have no guarantee of success and with the Lib Dems brand in tatters, I could see why there wouldn't be too much enthusiasm. The Lib Dems might rebrand a bit or a new party might form to cover the ground they sit in but I'm not confident that would be popular.

I suspect that the parliamentary Labour MPs will be devising Corbyn's exit strategy already. The ideal scenario for them would be for Corbyn to voluntarily step aside half way into his term and credit him with reforming the party and find a compromise candidate that retains the motivated base but calms the more radical elements. If the MPs kick off, everyone is fucked.

[jmothecat]

Simon Danczuk is an idiot. Good riddance if he wants to cross the floor.

I can't see any of the bigger figures (Hunt etc) crossing the floor though. They feel that their party has been hijacked I would think, and their response will likely be to fight to get it back.

[welshbairn]

A 'Blairite' isn't necessarily a right wing term; it's someone who wants to be ruthless in manoeuvring the party to win. Rightly or wrongly, they will look at what Middle England wants and try to appeal to them the best they can. Just because there is support closer to many aspects of policy from George Osborne doesn't mean that the Conservative vision doesn't disgust them in many ways. I'm not saying I agree with that completely but their issue with electability is entirely reasonable considering the political climate in England and as much as I don't plan to support the Labour Party, I'd prefer a much less courageous Labour Party to any Conservative Party.

The Blairites haven't stopped chasing the centre/right vote even as the Tories have subtly dragged it further and further right. They're now further right than Heath or even Major. They've abandoned their core vote totally and have lost the ability to talk English. Can you remember anything that the losing 3 candidates said that would mean anything to anybody outside the Westminster village? "Going forward I will fight hard to improve the lives of hard working people." "I want an NHS with time to care." The only loser with anything remotely meaningful to say was Yvette Cooper with her "Feminist economics" Fcuk knows what it is, but at least it probably means something.

[Jacksgranda]

Simon Danczuk is an idiot. Good riddance if he wants to cross the floor.

I can't see any of the bigger figures (Hunt etc) crossing the floor though. They feel that their party has been hijacked I would think, and their response will likely be to fight to get it back.

That's what I think - the "Blairites" think they are the Labour Party, so will be looking to oust the Corbynistas.

[MarkoRaj]

Simon Danczuk is an idiot. Good riddance if he wants to cross the floor.

I can't see any of the bigger figures (Hunt etc) crossing the floor though. They feel that their party has been hijacked I would think, and their response will likely be to fight to get it back.

Hijacked by a landslide election, you couldn't make it up

[welshbairn]

I think jmothecat would be much happier with Ken Clarke as leader of the Labour Party.

[YassinMoutaouakil]

Can't see any more than 2 or 3 at the very most.

[harry94]

The Blairites haven't stopped chasing the centre/right vote even as the Tories have subtly dragged it further and further right. They're now further right than Heath or even Major. They've abandoned their core vote totally and have lost the ability to talk English. Can you remember anything that the losing 3 candidates said that would mean anything to anybody outside the Westminster village? "Going forward I will fight hard to improve the lives of hard working people." "I want an NHS with time to care." The only loser with anything remotely meaningful to say was Yvette Cooper with her "Feminist economics" Fcuk knows what it is, but at least it probably means something.

I find it difficult to discuss comparisons to what the centre ground was at different points of time since I don't really have a good enough understanding of how you gauge something like that but I do think that deregulation was a general trend in global politics at the time of Labour's election and the global financial crisis is now being used as a tool to drag the electorate to the right.

I agree with what you are saying about their incompetence but I'd put their failure down to one thing; they have too readily admitted their short comings. When the Conservative's won a minority government in 2010, Labour responded by admitting they were wrong with pretty much everything to do with the economy. By doing that, they promoted the Conservative narrative that spending was out of control and the welfare state was ultimately responsible for the crisis (when in fact, welfare spending was pretty much identical as a percentage of GDP and the deficit ballooned after the bailouts and tax revenues dried up caused by a global effect). Once you accept that version of events, who is ever going to trust you when you are saying 'Yeah we fucked up before and it was all our fault but listen, Labour has changed and we promise to do exactly what the current guys are doing right now but nicer'.

It also plays a big part that the English electorate are thick as f**k and will do whatever a tabloid wants them to do.

[NotThePars]

Well 'economic frugality' is the number one vote winner these days. That's probably how you gauge the centre ground at the moment. Who can be seen to balance the books the best, really regardless of the cost.

[topcat(The most tip top)]

I suspect there's a lot of people whose personal values were a bit to the left of the old leadership who now find themselves a bit to the right of the current leadership and will find the challenge of dealing with that just as manageable.

[Bishop Briggs]

Backbench Conservative MPs go apeshit at the leadership for not being right wing enough and it's only since the election that they seem to be content.

The right wing on the Conservative benches has been reduced to only about 30 to 40 MPs. Cameron's cronies took total control of candidate selections from 2005. The great majority of the Tory MPs who entered the Commons in 2010 and 2015, especially the women, are loyal to him.

[BerwickMad]

The right wing on the Conservative benches has been reduced to only about 30 to 40 MPs. Cameron's cronies took total control of candidate selections from 2005. The great majority of the Tory MPs who entered the Commons in 2010 and 2015, especially the women, are loyal to him.

I thought my MP was Cameron loyal but she seems to be firmly on the right of the party. Some of her views, like anti-EU and climate change denial were never revealed pre-election.

In one way I admire her that she holds her own opinions away from the party leadership, compared to Beith who barely rebelled against the Lib Dems, but on the other hand I hate her politics.

As for the Blairites, I thinks there's quite a bit of difference between them and the Tories. It's still Labour ideology for me. Theyd be more likely to set up their on Progress Party or merge with the Lib Dems

[jmothecat]

I thought my MP was Cameron loyal but she seems to be firmly on the right of the party. Some of her views, like anti-EU and climate change denial were never revealed pre-election.

In one way I admire her that she holds her own opinions away from the party leadership, compared to Beith who barely rebelled against the Lib Dems, but on the other hand I hate her politics.

As for the Blairites, I thinks there's quite a bit of difference between them and the Tories. It's still Labour ideology for me. Theyd be more likely to set up their on Progress Party or merge with the Lib Dems

I can't see an SDP split personally. 'Blairites' in my experience are loyal to the party and still feel firmly Labour. One thing that the moderate wing seem particularly keen on is pragmatism. Splitting will do more harm than good, and ultimately they will think they have a better chance being a minority voice in a large party than a majority voice of an insignificant one. Progress are firmly Labour and I highly doubt many would fancy the idea of being part of another party.