Geopolitics in the 2020s.

[ICTChris]

Solid reports of militias from Syria involved fighting for Azerbaijan.

https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/28/syrian-rebel-fighters-prepare-to-deploy-to-azerbaijan-in-sign-of-turkeys-ambition?__twitter_impression=true

Afghan and Chechen forces also fought for the Azeri side in the early 90s conflict.

[SANTAN]

Anyone here watched the BBC three part documentary about China and the rise of the current leader? 

[Theroadlesstravelled]

I can imagine a few people would lose their shit if Westminster posted something pro-war like this.

 

[NotThePars]

I think it's beautiful that they respect homosexuals in the Armenian military

Edited September 29, 2020 by NotThePars

[ICTChris]

I don’t think there’s any comparison between this conflict and anything in this country. I don’t think there is any significant anti-war movement in Armenia, the need to defend the country militarily is universally accepted. I don’t know about Azerbaijan but the largest demonstration there in recent years was a pro-War March after the skirmishes in July. There is opposition to Aliyev, who is an authoritarian leader, but I don’t think anyone in Azerbaijan would consider not supporting military action.

It really is one of the conflicts that has the real potential for significant bloodshed because of this. The last war saw massacres on both sides and significant ethnic cleansing. The Azeris have upgraded their military since then but there are doubts about their effectiveness and morale under pressure, which might explain the drafting in of Syrian and Turkish support.

While this isn’t a proxy conflict as such, Turkey are now involved in situations in Iraq, Syria, internally with the Kurds and in the Eastern Mediterranean involving Greece and Cyprus. A bit of co-ordination between these parties could see Turkish forces stretched.

[Wee-Bey]

Oh dear.

[ICTChris]

Oh dear.

A lot of anti-Armenian rhetoric blends with anti-Semitism, which ties into the Soros comments from Aliyev.

[ICTChris]

Confirmation that Syrians have been killed fighting in Karabakh.

[ICTChris]

A video from the front line in Karabakh, Bars media embedded with the Artsakh Defence Army.  Tghe Armenian name for Karabakh is Artsakh.

 

First English language interview with the Armenian Prime Minister in the Spectator - https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/how-armenia-views-the-conflict-with-azerbaijan#

Edited September 30, 2020 by ICTChris

[Detournement]

Is the UK bankrolling anyone in this war?

Should we expect any Salman Abedi type blowback?

[ICTChris]

Is the UK bankrolling anyone in this war?
Should we expect any Salman Abedi type blowback?

The U.K. has an arms embargo in place with both sides of the conflict, has done since the early 1990s. As mentioned earlier though, there are links between British companies and the Azeri energy industry. Also, the ruling family in Azerbaijan have been linked with laundering money through the City of London and using opaque U.K. companies. Here is a report from the OCCP on the ‘Laundromat’ scandal - https://www.occrp.org/en/azerbaijanilaundromat/

The biggest supplier to both countries in terms of military equipment is Russia, although Azerbaijan have cultivated links to Israel, buying billings of dollars worth of Israeli arms in recent years.

Armenia, by contrast, is mainly reliant on Russian equipment. One thing that characterised the war in the 1980s and 90s was that it was a guerrilla conflict which favoured the Armenians. The Karabakh Armenians saw the war as a fight for their survival and responded as such. I can’t remember the name of the Russian author who said it but he said that for Azeris Karabakh was a matter of pride, for Armenians it was life and death. Now the battle has changed, it’s a border war which perhaps favours Azeri technological advancement. However, the Armenians have the defensive positions and could use this to their advantage, inflicting significant damage on the enemy with less cost to themselves. We shall see. I’ve heard it said in the past that Azerbaijan corrupt system of government means that while they spend huge amounts of money on equipment they might not have the most motivated soldiers or efficient command structure.

In terms of blowback, despite the involvement of Syrian militias, this is a national/ethnic conflict not a religious one. It isn’t part of the war on terror. Chechen Islamists fought on the Azeri side last time but were more mercenaries than jihadists. Shamir Basayev, the Chechen behind the Beslan massacre and Moscow theatre siege,fought in the earlier war and said that the Azeris weren’t interested in religion.

[ICTChris]

This is the closest thing we got to blowback in the U.K. from the last conflict was this story

 

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/armenian-jailed-for-london-kgb-killings-arms-deal-led-to-deaths-of-brothers-from-rebel-russian-1512278.html

 

A sad epitaph to the story was that the BBC producer married to the Armenian saw her sister murdered by a gunman at their home in South East England, most likely on the orders of Dhokar Dudayev, President of breakaway Chechnya. The whole Ponting family now live in hiding for fear of further reprisals.

 

Another strange thing about that story is that the flat where the two Chechens were murdered was under 24 hour surveillance by MI5, who apparently missed two hitmen gaining entry and murdering them and chopping up the bodies.

[Genuine Hibs Fan]

1 hour ago, ICTChris said:

This is the closest thing we got to blowback in the U.K. from the last conflict was this story

 

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/armenian-jailed-for-london-kgb-killings-arms-deal-led-to-deaths-of-brothers-from-rebel-russian-1512278.html

 

A sad epitaph to the story was that the BBC producer married to the Armenian saw her sister murdered by a gunman at their home in South East England, most likely on the orders of Dhokar Dudayev, President of breakaway Chechnya. The whole Ponting family now live in hiding for fear of further reprisals.

 

Another strange thing about that story is that the flat where the two Chechens were murdered was under 24 hour surveillance by MI5, who apparently missed two hitmen gaining entry and murdering them and chopping up the bodies.

Out of curiosity is this something you're just curious about or do you have some connections to the area? Seems like you have a good deal of knowledge about the subject

[ICTChris]

Out of curiosity is this something you're just curious about or do you have some connections to the area? Seems like you have a good deal of knowledge about the subject

I don’t have any connections in the area, I am just interested in post Soviet conflicts and Armenian history. My dad used to live in Cyprus and I’ve taken an interest in conflicts involving Turkey as well since then.

I am aware that posting as much as I have been about it on a Scottish football forum is not normal behaviour.

[Fullerene]

There are about 17 million Azeri living in Iran which has provinces called West Azerbaijan and East Azerbaijan, so Iran has always had concerns about territorial claims by Azerbaijan.

Thought I would add that in just in case anyone thought the situation in the region was totally straightforward. 

[ICTChris]

There are about 17 million Azeri living in Iran which has provinces called West Azerbaijan and East Azerbaijan, so Iran has always had concerns about territorial claims by Azerbaijan.
Thought I would add that in just in case anyone thought the situation in the region was totally straightforward. 

Armenia has a good relationship with Iran. There was some controversy yesterday when footage appeared of trucks going from Iran into Armenia, apparently carrying weapons. Iran has denied this strongly though and has been appealing for a ceasefire.

[Detournement]

Now that I see 'Syrian Rebels' are off to fight for the Azeris I'm jumping on board the Armenian (money) train. 

[fummycrash]

I am sure few people would lose their sanity. 

[ICTChris]

The reports I've read about the rebels are basically that they are mercenaries.  The rumours are that they were told they'd be paid $1,000 a month to work as guards in Azerbijian but when they arrived they were pushed onto the front line.  Some of the quotes from Syrians express surprise at the intensity of the fighting, which seems odd considering they have come from a war that has been going on for years and has seen hundreds of thousands of casualties but it's probably a relfection of the difference in the theatres.

It's interesting that Azerbijan would employ mercenareis like this given the huge investment it's made in it's armed forces but some analysts are saying that there is a capability gap between elite Azeri forces and the regular conscript army and that Syrian mercenaries could bridge the gap between to the two.  Also, if you want to be brutal about it, if foreigners absorb the casualties ahead of Azeri conscripts that will help Aliyev at home.

Analysis of the conflict is difficult at the moment as there are few reliable sourcesof information.  What appears to be the case is that territory hasn't changed hands but that Azeri air power is having an affect on Armenian armour and heavy weaponary.  Armenian forces haven't deployed their highest powered air defence systems, which are focussed on protecting Armenia proper and it could take an agreement with Russia to counter Turkish movements for the Armenians to deploy that.  This would be a big escalation though and so far Russia has urged each side to de-escalate.

[Detournement]

3 hours ago, ICTChris said:

The reports I've read about the rebels are basically that they are mercenaries.  The rumours are that they were told they'd be paid $1,000 a month to work as guards in Azerbijian but when they arrived they were pushed onto the front line.  Some of the quotes from Syrians express surprise at the intensity of the fighting, which seems odd considering they have come from a war that has been going on for years and has seen hundreds of thousands of casualties but it's probably a relfection of the difference in the theatres.

It's interesting that Azerbijan would employ mercenareis like this given the huge investment it's made in it's armed forces but some analysts are saying that there is a capability gap between elite Azeri forces and the regular conscript army and that Syrian mercenaries could bridge the gap between to the two.  Also, if you want to be brutal about it, if foreigners absorb the casualties ahead of Azeri conscripts that will help Aliyev at home.

Analysis of the conflict is difficult at the moment as there are few reliable sourcesof information.  What appears to be the case is that territory hasn't changed hands but that Azeri air power is having an affect on Armenian armour and heavy weaponary.  Armenian forces haven't deployed their highest powered air defence systems, which are focussed on protecting Armenia proper and it could take an agreement with Russia to counter Turkish movements for the Armenians to deploy that.  This would be a big escalation though and so far Russia has urged each side to de-escalate.

The Syrian government clearly had a tactic of encirclement and long sieges until the Jihadis gave up and agreed to be bussed out to Idlib. That's what happened in Allepo, Douma, Ghouta etc which the media told us were going to suffer genocide after the SAA took control. Not heard much about that since. On the other hand there was the Raqqa and Mosul method of the USA levelling the entire city with ordnance and air strikes. This  fighting sounds very different with both sides going on the offensive.