Geopolitics in the 2020s.

[NotThePars]

I've started trying to learn how to play Hearts of Iron so I'll be giving my expert analysis on this in about 3 weeks

[ICTChris]

1 minute ago, Detournement said:

The Syrian government clearly had a tactic of encirclement and long sieges until the Jihadis gave up and agreed to be bussed out to Idlib. That's what happened in Allepo, Douma, Ghouta etc which the media told us were going to suffer genocide after the SAA took control. Not heard much about that since. On the other hand there was the Raqqa and Mosul method of the USA levelling the entire city with ordnance and air strikes. This  fighting sounds very different with both sides going on the offensive.

The fighting in Karabakh is relatively old fashioned with front lines of trenches and minefields.  What seems to be happening now is artillary duels - there were reports that Armenian authorities were truning away volunteers as they needed trained artillary experts.  I also read a report earlier from that a significant number of Azeri casualties have happened in the Southern mountains that are part of the occupied Azeri districts (Armenian forces occupy about 10% of Azerbijan in a buffer zone around Karabakh).  This was the scene of a devastating defeat for Azerbijan in the 90s, it seems they've attacked there again.

Armenian MoD have claimed they have shot down several Azeri aircraft, including one helicopter that has crashed in Iran.  Several journalists, some French, have also been wounded.

[NotThePars]

Ottoman gang assemble

[ICTChris]

Fighting continues in Karabakh, with heavy clashes and artillery bombardments on both sides. Civilian areas in Karabakh have been shelled and attacked with drones by Azeri forces. It doesn’t appear that any significant territory has changed hands though.

Further reports of Syrians being used on the front lines by Azerbaijan, with some reports claiming hundreds of casualties among them. Reliable reports are difficult as journalists have been attacked on the Armenian side and are banned from the Azerbaijan side entirely.

[vikingTON]

On 02/10/2020 at 10:35, NotThePars said:

 

Ottoman gang assemble

Putin will be bringing back the Tsarist claim to Constantinople within the year: full 1915 vibes on the go again.

 

[vikingTON]

NB: We should just restore the Byzantines to owning all of this territory again instead of all the failed states in the region since. 

 

[ICTChris]

Azeri President has claimed his troops have retaken the village of Madaghis.

The Armenian President has made a speech asking for Armenians throughout the world to help the fight, drawing on historical parallels with the Battle of Sardarabad in 1918 which stopped the Ottoman advance on Yerevan. Apocalyptic stuff. The president of Karabakh has joined soldiers on the front line.

[ICTChris]

Peace in our time!

[D Angelo Barksdale]

Pretty sure saying this sort of stuff gets you labled an antisemite.

[Tutankhamen]

Away to watch Gallipoli again.

[NotThePars]

On 03/10/2020 at 17:01, virginton said:

NB: We should just restore the Byzantines to owning all of this territory again instead of all the failed states in the region since. 

 

As an avid Crusader Kings 2 player I can only disagree. Give it all back to the Ottoman Turk, destroy the roads and enslave the Balkans for the Janissary class. Have the sons of Erdogan slaughter each other in the succession struggle and let his grandchildren knock down the gates of Vienna this time.

[Arabdownunder]

On 04/10/2020 at 05:05, ICTChris said:

Peace in our time!
 

Not sure that "We hosted peace talks, war breaks out" is quite the message to giive out.

[Sherrif John Bunnell]

New Caledonia bottle it again.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-54410059

[ICTChris]

Azeri and Turkish forces have continually bombed the Karabakh capital Stepanakert in the last few days, with numerous civilian buildings destroyed and civilians killed. Cluster bombs have been used. In turn, Armenian forces have fired missiles at various towns in Azerbaijan, claiming to have destroyed a military airport in Ganja, whereas the Azeris claim civilian targets were the only ones hit. While independent journalists are reporting from Armenian held Karabakh and can verify the attacks in civilians there, all non-regime reporters are banned from Azerbaijan, meaning that it is impossible to verify the claims regarding the missile attacks on Ganja.

 

Both sides are offering inflated figures of casualties, with Armenia claiming to have killed 3,000 Azeri troops and Azerbaijan claiming likewise. With few independent observers it’s hard to get a real picture of how the fighting is taking shape.

 

The suggestion is being made that Armenian forces are attacking Azeri cities to provoke a response attack on Armenia proper, which would then oblige Russia to assist under the terms of the security agreement between Armenia and Russia. The Russian presidential plane just landed in Yerevan, probably some shuttle diplomacy going on.

[ICTChris]

When was the last joint statement from Russia and the US?

[SandyCromarty]

On 03/10/2020 at 16:57, virginton said:

Putin will be bringing back the Tsarist claim to Constantinople within the year: full 1915 vibes on the go again.

 

Azerbaijan was a Soviet state until the early nineties.

Some years back I was involved with an inspection on BP's Chirag platform, it was noticeable that BP were courting the Azeri workforce wholesale by sending them to the UK on courses while those Russians born in Azerbaijan were ignored.

There was also a large British ex pat community in Baku but I don't know if that is still the case.

Could Russia get involved here? 

[ICTChris]

Azerbaijan was a Soviet state until the early nineties.
Some years back I was involved with an inspection on BP's Chirag platform, it was noticeable that BP were courting the Azeri workforce wholesale by sending them to the UK on courses while those Russians born in Azerbaijan were ignored.
There was also a large British ex pat community in Baku but I don't know if that is still the case.
Could Russia get involved here? 

Russia has a military alliance with Armenia and is closer to them politically than Azerbaijan. If Azeri forces attack Armenia itself rather than Karabakh then Russia, technically, are compelled to help Armenia. However, it also has good relations with Baku and sells arms to both sides. It’s highly doubtful that Russia would intervene militarily in a direct way and even if they did analysts doubt that they have the technology that the Armenian forces need to combat the Azeri/Turkish drone war.

Russia has called for a ceasefire and is apparently communicating with both sides, including Turkey' to broker this. More ominously, there are reports that Russian Private Military Comapny the Wagner Group are moving troops to Karabakh. Wagner troops operate in Russian interests but at arms length in various conflicts worldwide -they have been engaged in Syria, Libya, Ukraine and Sudan. Various Telegram channels have placed them in Karabakh in the last few days. While these aren’t official Russian forces they operate in hand in glove with the Russian state and in Russian interests.

In more positive news, the fighting intensity has decreased in the last two days. Bellicose statements are forthcoming from Turkey and Azerbaijan but the actual fighting is reducing. Could be the clam before a new offensive but could also be the prelude to a ceasefire.

[D Angelo Barksdale]

Knew there was something odd about this guy, turns out he was deep cover. Our light entertainment industry has been compromised.

[D Angelo Barksdale]

A heartwarming tale for the ages.

[SANTAN]

Did anyone watch Once Upon A Time In Iraq?

Very good show and well made, some harrowing stuff and definitely informative, I was quite young and not politically switched on during the Iraq war so it's quite eye opening in some areas.