Geopolitics in the 2020s.

[ICTChris]

Missiles and heavy artillery strikes have been reported in Ngorno Karabakh. Seems like Azeri strikes against remaining Armenian forces in the enclave. It’s literally happening now so difficult to assess any impact or damage.

Some trucks of humanitarian aid have got through in the last few days, including via the Lachin corridor. Could be that Azerbijan are escalating alongside this. 

The 2020 war took the Armenian armed forces completely by surprise - some estimates suggest that the majority of Armenian heavy weapons were destroyed in the first few hours of fighting because they weren’t concealed from drones and missile strikes. You have to assume that this is a lesson that’s been learned, but it’s hard to say.

[ICTChris]

Azeri MoD statement.

 

It’s complete bullshit of course. The idea that special forces detachments of Armenians are planting bombs is risible. The whole thing, alongside the blockade, is a facade to allow further war.

There are hundreds of thousands of civilians in Karabakh, they have no way out. This is a potential humanitarian catastrophe.

[ICTChris]

Azerbijan has sent SMS messages telling women and children to leave Karabakh via the Lachin corridor. No mention of men. This is Bosnia style ethnic cleansing, happening in real time.

[LongTimeLurker]

1 hour ago, ICTChris said:

Azerbijan has sent SMS messages telling women and children to leave Karabakh via the Lachin corridor. No mention of men. This is Bosnia style ethnic cleansing, happening in real time.

So was what the Nagorno-Karabakh Armenians did back in the 1990s when seizing a sizable chunk of Azerbaijan they had no reasonable claim to. The Azerbaijanis could have easily finished off NKR/Artsakh whatever you want to call it three years ago, so intransigence on the part of the Armenian side subsequent to that such as the recent presidential election was unlikely to lead to it all ending happily ever after for them. Sometimes in life you need to take the hint that you don't hold a winning hand and need to take the best deal you can. Accepting that the de jure borders are where they are appears to be the price Armenia will have to pay to be able to break with Moscow and have more of an EU and NATO sort of orientation in future.

[itzdrk]

Cheap oil though lads, EU looking awfy silly now. 

Edited September 19, 2023 by itzdrk

[welshbairn]

I searched for Armenia on Google News and this came third on the list..

‘I took my Brompton on the train to Armenia’: readers’ favourite European rail journeys

The Turks don't seem to have lost any of their hatred for Armenians since they last got the Kurds to massacre them a hundred odd years ago,

I doubt Azerbaijan would have done any of this without the full backing of Ankara.

Had a related First World problem when this kicked off in the Nineties, was all set to book a private sleeper in a direct train from Moscow to Tehran for £15 when the conflict shut down the route for good.

[ICTChris]

1 hour ago, LongTimeLurker said:

So was what the Nagorno-Karabakh Armenians did back in the 1990s when seizing a sizable chunk of Azerbaijan they had no reasonable claim to. The Azerbaijanis could have easily finished off NKR/Artsakh whatever you want to call it three years ago, so intransigence on the part of the Armenian side subsequent to that such as the recent presidential election was unlikely to lead to it all ending happily ever after for them. Sometimes in life you need to take the hint that you don't hold a winning hand and need to take the best deal you can. Accepting that the de jure borders are where they are appears to be the price Armenia will have to pay to be able to break with Moscow and have more of an EU and NATO sort of orientation in future.

The idea that this is some sort just deserts for the Ngorno-Karabakh assembly electing a new head is so far out of proportion it's unreal.  Saying that's Armenian instransigence is ridiculous.  The Azeri government has blockaded the entire remaining enclave for nine months, people have literally died of starvation.  Did they do that because of a local election?  The Armenians should have negotiated after 1994 so now we should accept them being ethnically cleansed?  

[LongTimeLurker]

8 minutes ago, ICTChris said:

The idea that this is some sort just deserts for the Ngorno-Karabakh assembly electing a new head is so far out of proportion it's unreal...

Try reading what I wrote again. At no point did I suggest anything was just deserts. What I pointed out was the cold hard military reality that the game was up for the Armenian side when they lost the conflict in 2020 and that means that NKR is clearly going to be part of Azerbaijan one way or another in future. Trying to keep their ethnic para-state going inside the de jure borders of Azerbaijan rather than negotiating whatever deal Baku was going to be willing to give them was delusional.

Edited September 19, 2023 by LongTimeLurker

[ICTChris]

13 minutes ago, LongTimeLurker said:

Try reading what I wrote again. At no point did I suggest anything was just deserts. What I pointed out was the cold hard military reality that the game was up for the Armenian side when they lost the conflict in 2020 and that means that NKR is clearly going to be part of Azerbaijan one way or another in future. Trying to keep their ethnic para-state going inside the de jure borders of Azerbaijan rather than negotiating whatever deal Baku was going to be willing to give them was delusional.

I'm sure the deal on offer by the regime who are currently killing them after starving the population for nine months would have been very fair.  The end result of this is an ethnic cleansing of the Armenian population, which is what the Azeri regime wanted in the first place.  Every interaction between Armenians and Azeris has ended in death in Karabakh.  The only way that negotiations could have taken place would be with a proper peacekeeping force and due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine that was stripped away.  

It's likely to be a horrorshow in the next few days or weeks.  Pashinyan has said that Armenia will not (cannot?) intervene militarily.  The strength of the Karabakh Armenian Defence Army is unknown.  

France has called for a meeting of the UN Security council, other countries have called on Azerbijan to stop it's offensive.

[Wee-Bey]

If only we had some sort of 'world police' style huge military block of countries that could do something about this.

[LongTimeLurker]

Problem is Turkey are a member of said block and very much on Azerbaijan's side.

[Sergeant Wilson]

9 hours ago, LongTimeLurker said:

 At no point did I suggest anything was just deserts. 

Are there some nice bits as well?

[ICTChris]

Heavy shelling of Stepanakert continuing overnight. Reports of villages being overrun by Azeri troops. Electricity across the whole region is off. 

Azeri shelling has also completely destroyed one of the bases of the Russian peacekeeping troops, who have all withdrawn to Khojaly airport.

[ICTChris]

Reports that the leadership of the Ngorno-Karabakh republic have agreed to meet Azeris. Azerbaijan have said they will only accept a surrender. I wonder if the Karabakh Armenians will agree to surrender and agree safe passage. 

Given the condition within NK though, with no fuel or food due to the blockade, how will the people be evacuated? It’s likely that Azeri military units will encounter large numbers of Armenian civilians, which could be very bad news.

The Azeri attack has targeted civilian areas with indiscriminate attacks and in previous conflicts any contact between Azeri armed forces and Armenian civilians has ended with the civilians being killed. There is a very high risk of large numbers of civilians being killed.

Edited September 20, 2023 by ICTChris

[ICTChris]

Reports that the Artsakh Defence Forces have agreed a ceasefire, undertaken to disband and for the Russian peacekeepers to deploy across the whole area of NG.

I doubt the ceasefire will happen - this happened several times during the 2020 war.

[LongTimeLurker]

Azerbaijan already won this conflict militarily back in 2020 and were pretty much on the doorstep of Stepanakert on its western outskirts by the time that all ended. If they had wanted to outright massacre the other side it could already have happened by now. Talking about the blockade of the Lachin corridor is only half the story. Armenia undertook to open a transport corridor across its territory to Nakhichevan at that point but that never happened so from the Azerbaijani perspective that voided their commitment to keep the Lachin corridor open. The NKR authorities have been clinging onto the hope that Vlad would intervene on their behalf like he did with South Ossetia and Abkhazia but he's kind of busy right now elsewhere so it looks like reality is finally dawning on them. 

Edited September 20, 2023 by LongTimeLurker

[Billy Jean King]

To put all this in layman's terms which flag is likely to be waved by the blue cheeks and which by the green side ?

[ICTChris]

Armenians at Stepanakert airport

 

Unsure what will happen here.  Is anyone in a position to evacuate people?  Will Azerbijan allow it?

[ICTChris]

Azeri troops reportedly in Stepanakert. Reports of gunfire and Armenian residents leaving their homes.

Several Russian peacekeepers were killed yesterday, including the deputy commander of the force. Aliyev has apologised to Putin for this, so it looks like Azeri forces were responsible. 

[welshbairn]

Strong critique of Canadian hypocrisy over the murder of Hardeep Singh Nijjar.

https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2023/9/21/if-india-killed-a-canadian-sikh-citizen-justin-trudeau-is-to-blame