LongTimeLurker

Labour doesn't need to rise much higher than that to starting taking seats. A well balanced pair of Unionist chasing parties in the low to mid 20s is the ideal scenario for the SNP in terms of having another landslide even in the absence of the tactical No voters that pushed their support up to 50% last time around.

The current set of boundaries favour Labour as urban seats tend to be smaller in population terms than rural ones. Theresa May decided to call a snap election rather than wait for the new boundaries to be implemented, so only has herself to blame on that. It looks like it all depends on whether the 18-34 cohort actually bother to vote in numbers comparable to the 65+ demographic. The difference between the polls at the moments is that the ones with the larger Tory lead like the latest ICM one assume they won't, while other companies are assuming that they will.

That pretty much sums up the state of play. That would leave only the likes of the Borders seat, East Lothian, Edinburgh West and Dunbartonshire East as probable SNP losses due to scope for a lot of pro-Union tactical voting and a relatively weak base of SNP support. The other angle is that if Labour gets to be competitive south of the border as is starting to be the case Labour voters have to seriously consider the possibility that the SNP beating the Tories in their constituency can help get rid of Theresa May in a hung parliament. It's much easier to make a statement where the Union is concerned when it is likely to have no effect whatsoever on the overall outcome.

...in an ultra-safe Labour seat. His most intelligent move in electoral terms if not in terms of its long term consequences for the country was to say that Labour won't block Brexit, because that pried loose about 8% of traditional Labour voters from UKIP getting him up into the mid-30s. Now if he pushes hard on the pensioner issue and can deal with the IRA/Hamas/Trident stuff to the satisfaction of his core base if not the Radio 4 listening Tunbrige Wells brigade he has a real shot at making this election interesting, because of how Theresa May has pushed so hard right.

Does it really have to be spelled out that this applied to the Tories current hard Brexit Union Jack waving posture as well as the SNP's Saltire waving Indyref2? Combined those two nationalist populisms could attract up to 75% of the electorate this time around. Twenty years back when devolution was being established the dominant axis in Scottish politics was the Lab-LibDem coalition at Holyrood and most mainstream political commentaters thought that was going to last for a long time.

Meanwhile, Aberdeen have rattled six past Partick Thistle quicker than you can say unusual betting patterns. Agree that Scotland isn't turning into a replica of Ulster and having been to both I think Larkhall would probably benefit from having some of the coastal scenery that Larne has, but what has changed in recent times is that class politics has weakened in Scotland and national identity and differing forms of tub thumping populism that revolve around it has become more prominent.

¡Ay, Caramba! What was Therea May thinking when she decided to announce policies that went after pensioners financially when pensioners form her core demographic? This election could finally start to get interesting over the next week or so.

Do you still think I'm pals with Willie Frazer? The point I was making on Arlene at Ibrox is that most people who vote SNP in Scotland are exactly the type of people that would vote DUP if they had grown up in NI instead given the shared obsession with identity politics where the DUP and SNP are concerned even if the preferred coloured piece of cloth is different and there is less bible thumping going on in the latter case John Mason notwithstanding. Good to see you have finally come out of the closet where your junior football allegiances are concerned.

If the European Convention on Human Rights gets ditched as Theresa May is planning on doing post-Brexit but the SNP and others will block at Holyrood in a Scots Law context there would be zero problem legally with banning Orange walks on public order grounds. Ironically the LOL is a lot keener on Theresa than they are on Nicola, because they see the late 17th century as being pivotal where liberties are concerned.

Especially as they have just won promotion back to the west superleague.

Hence why I pointed out it had a sample size of 92, but they are usually not that drastically off so they are worth keeping an eye on to gauge which way the wind is blowing. Given Labour now pretty much have only pro-Union supporters it will be interesting to see how their electorate responds to the no coalition with the Tories edict in Aberdeen from Kezia Dugdale and effectively backing the SNP in Edinburgh. Obviously it takes quite a few of these sub-polls to confirm a trend.

Very small sample size of 92 etc, but the Scotland numbers on this poll made my jaw drop: https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/2017-05/pm-may-2017-tables.pdf SNP 45%, Tories 43%, Lab 9%, Lib 2%, BNP 1%

Given it's not been made public yet, it's for them to say not some random anonymous poster on a website. Think we will need to wait for the junior season to run its course before we will find out for sure what is happening next year.

Haddington weren't the third club.

All of the clubs that are alleged to have applied to the EoS league are doing so precisely because of licensing and the ability to secure automatic Scottish Cup entry and to move up through the divisions into the SPFL. They wouldn't be doing it for any other reason than it enabling them to tick the final box on licensing.

All three of the clubs alleged to be involved tick the boxes on licensing where their grounds are concerned without any difficulty.

If all three juniors clubs that are said to have applied for EoS membership, were to go through with it and you factor in Lothian Thistle as well who as you have pointed out are no mugs along with Leith Athletic, the top of the EoS becomes a bit of a logjam when there is only a single playoff place up for grabs each year. Suspect Kelty wouldn't be so close to risking it, if there aren't some other changes in the pipeline. Bo'ness United have been talking on their website about getting ready for the changes that are coming to Scottish football and it's not entirely clear what they are referring to.

Always thought it would be a smaller club like Haddington or Blackburn that would do this first.

This one by the looks of things:

Can you name an example of a soft border between the outer edge of the EU and a neighbouring state that isn't part of the EEA (i.e. the single market minus the political dimensions as would have been the case with a soft Brexit) unlike Norway and Switzerland as Theresa May intends to achieve with a hard Brexit? There's a reason why Juncker thinks she is deluded. People are sleep walking into something they don't grasp the full implications of yet.

Hour long waits on the M74 to cross the border would be less enthralling. It might be 57:43 yes in the polls now if the choice is EU independence shangri la vs 1000 year Brexit Tory/UKIP reich, but will people still be so eager when faced with the reality that it means either a new currency or the euro? Life would be much easier if the Tories had not got a majority back in 2015 and we had avoided having a Brexit referendum. The SNP and UKIP/Tory nationalisms have been feeding off each other in recent years in a way that will have deeply negative consequences over the next couple of decades.

Looks like they are: http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-39770328

Yes, let's be as delusional as Theresa but wrap it all up in tartan. On a soft Brexit independence would have been a no brainer for Remainers that look at the issue of where the national parliament should be located pragmatically, but there are no easy answers on a hard Brexit and it will be at least a decade before the damage can slowly start to be undone.

Decades of the up market London based media downplaying and ridiculing the European role in British politics along with "Up Yours, Delors" headlines from the tabloids led to this. It's going to be an absolute car crash, and independence in the EU doesn't offer an easy way out for Scotland if the Little Englanders insist on leaving the single market, because it's difficult to see how a hard border could be avoided.

It was alleged to have been Billy Davies as they were friends from growing up in the same part of Pollok, but he denied it: http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/scottish-news/nottingham-forest-boss-billy-davies-1079066