LongTimeLurker

That's about the size of it. We are first in line on the North Sea and last in line where Russian gas is concerned. Worst place to be right now is in the middle but LNG terminals have changed the dynamic considerably from what it would have been like 20 years ago and the Dutch have the capacity to be a game changer with the huge Groningen gas field that they basically mothballed.

Winter is almost over so Vlad's timing wasn't the greatest in leverage terms. What high prices are going to do is ramp up fracking in the United States so Europe's various LNG terminals are probably going to be very busy. The Dutch also have huge reserves in the Groningen area that they have been avoiding exploiting in recent years that could be ramped up again in production terms.

This is significant if it happens:

That would leave the three Baltic states stranded so doubt there's much appetite for that. Russia appears to have bitten off more than it can easily chew militarily so Poland's role will no doubt be to provide the airbases to keep resupplying the Ukrainians much like Pakistan during the Afghan war. The international fighters that appear to be arriving now no doubt provide a way in with plausible deniability for various western intelligence agencies.

It's not being talked up by the western media but they have already turned off one of the main gas pipelines that runs through Belarus.

Think the notion of global famine is over the top but lower income countries that rely heavily on imports of Russian and Ukrainian wheat are going to have a problem. Think that's likely to mainly be in the Middle East and North Africa (e.g. Syria, Egypt, Yemen) plus Afghanistan.

The bit about global famine and the use of a localised nuclear strike in Ukraine to scare the West doesn't fall into that category for me. Having said that though I'm also highly dubious about its authenticity but either way it's probably not too far off reflecting a lot of what is currently unfolding. What happens in Syria (and Nagorno-Karabakh) over the next few months is definitely something to watch and what their end game is on replacing Zelenskyy is probably as murky to Russian strategists at this point as described.

More easily read here: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1500301348780199937.html

next up in the SCC is Petershill

That's more like it. Elsewhere Bo'ness Athletic are losing 4-1.

Forgot there were no floodlights for today's game:

Think Zelenskyy needs to be reminded that sending stingers, javelins and TB2 drones, kicking Russia out of SWIFT and freezing Russian central bank assets wasn't a passive stance on NATO's part and was arguably not without risk if Vladimir Putin's a couple of cards short of a full deck at that moment. The Ukrainians appear to be taking territory back at the moment around Kharkiv, Mykolayiv and the nuclear plant on the Dniepr if their news outlets are to be believed. Their ability to hold Kharkiv must be deeply shocking to the Russians because that's a very Russified city where pro-Russian parties have had strong support. The strength of the resistance in contexts like that will probably have been stiffened considerably by the actions NATO did take.

That's what Kennie Young seemed to be suggesting was possible for next season rather than booting them out if numbers in Div 4 fell below six. They would then still be associate members who can't be promoted until they sort out their grounds.

To be fair to him he could be referring to how it's only 6 relegated clubs from the Premier if Talbot get promoted.

Given what tends to happen to outspoken journalists in that part of the world, hopefully he stays no higher than the first floor of his apartment building.

The eyeopeners in UN vote terms were that Serbia, Bosnia and Brazil actively voted against Russia. For Bosnia to vote that way Republika Srpska would have to be on board AFAIA (Serbia comes into it again here) and Brazil is part of BRICS. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BRICS

A definite upgrade on Pete Seeger's version and sadly all too relevant again.

In a podcast (Down the Divisions?) that was posted on here Kennie Young said no on a cup as still too difficult to find a sufficient number of teams but clubs can always organise one themselves.