GirondistNYC
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Posts posted by GirondistNYC
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1337073477[/url]' post='6238381']
Celtic are a PLC. Anything other than a yes vote would be contrary to the wishes of the shareholders. I don't think it's as cut and dried as you think, and if it was, frankly Lol would have said so in his nothing interview the other week
I'd agree with you if Celtic had an ordinary shareholder base filled with pension funds and index investors, but it doesn't. It has a majority shareholder who has stated in the past it's an emotional investment for him, some large shareholders who also can safely be said to have invested for reasons other than pure economic rationality and a diverse pool of very vocal small shareholders who are supporters who have held onto their shares and want Ibrox bulldozed and the ground sown with salt.
I might still agree with you if the business case for Celtic keeping Rangers in was absolutely incontrovertible, but As Granny Danger pointed out at the very least a facially credible business case might be made for saying no. In the short term, saying no avoids a massive supporter backlash which might severely impact season ticket and merchandise sales and means less money has to be spent on players to have a decent shot of winning the SPL and getting a (soon the) CL slot. Over the medium term not having Rangers around would certainly have a negative impact but if they show up as Govan NewCo in three years as would be expected under most realistic scenarios then it's reasonable to assume the OF income generators would be as nothing ever happened. Certainly many supporter shareholders will be loudly making the case for no in the weeks to come.
Suspect it would come down to Desmond and his mates, and they've been largely impervious to fan pressure to spend more in the past, but I'm pretty sure they'll view it through lenses other than purely "we need the Old Firm". You don't invest in Celtic because you love Rangers, and it's not clear even an ultra rational investor would want them in the SPL anyway.
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1337031772[/url]' post='6237406']
Are Celtic definitely opposed to it?
Because Lawwell made some statements earlier about not needing Rangers and Lennons comments haven't been walked back I think a large majority of Celtic supporters assumed we would vote no. Given how the situation has developed they will be very, very, very angry if Celtic caves and Rangers emerges Playing in the SPL. I think Lawwell is quite aware of this and will avoid a public yes vote at all costs. It's not as if Rangers are going to hate Celtic more and Parkhead isn't a game they'll boycott (and it would sell out anyway). Celtic loses little if they vote no and still get in compared to other clubs.
I know the Green Brigade is neither representative nor terribly popular here but they had a big banner on Sunday calling on Lawwell not to change position and they have said they wont take their allocation if Celtic allows Rangers back in the SPL. Most ordinary Celtic fans seem to agree with that general sentiment. Ticket sales would certainly be impacted.
A cynic would say they'll vote no but mean yes. If sufficient teams publicly indicate they will vote no so Celtic looks like the deciding vote the pressure would be incredible not to go along with a resuscitation. Guessing under those circumstances they'd vote no but cold be very, very wrong.
[dons tin helmet]
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1337027245[/url]' post='6237023']
He's already telling the Rangers support that they will not like everything he is going to tell them. Hardly the moonbeams or 25 mill for new players type rhetoric of the charlatans that got Rangers into their current predicament. If someone like Green hadn't emerged Rangers were in very real danger of doing a Third Lanark. What was needed was somebody with the cojones to tell a support that has been spoiled for 20 years that certain fiscal realities will finally have to be faced in future. They appear to have that now hence why I think people will need to come to terms with the continuing presence of Rangers in Scottish football.
Yes, I believe you re right. Clearly their near death experience and Green's tough business talk have concentrated the Bears minds and they are all focusing all of their attentions on the long hard slog of fiscal responsibility and diminished expectations:
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1337024722[/url]' post='6236816']
@davidhillier's proclamation that HMRC are likely to agree a CVA on the basis that the regime has changed concerns me greatly:
"HMRC CVA policy: when an insolvent firm has new owners, history of nonpayment is not important. New owners are what matters."
I am always hearing how HMRC consistently reject CVAs, but the above statement could be significant.
The debate is skewed because in football insolvencies they generally (never?) have had a blocking percentage of the debt so voting against the CVA is a cost free warning marker for them. Also, they hate the football creditor rule which applies in England so thy appear to have a policy of voing against hen that comes into play. They also vote against if by feel they are being deliberately done over by people connected to the original misconduct.
Hillier has been saying consistently HMRC will do a deal if it's facially reasonable and new people are involved. Given that nobody wants to buy the place once they look at the books £12 mil or do may actually be viewed as a reasonable market deal.
I'm not sure Hillier is taking into full account the weirdness of football as a market, though, with "market value" after the transfer window is shut being much lower than even short term market value in the hands of others. Also, this is a high profile case with football clubs all over the UK watching and non-football watching taxpayers paying more attention than they otherwise would.
If Green were to sell a post CVA Rangers for a tidy profit a year or two after shafting the taxpayer I'd suspect people, and not just football fans, would be outraged. And any fan in he boardroom type chairman would be sorely tempted to cheat the taxman going forward on the theory if they didn't kill Rangers they'll never, ever kill any football club.
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1337008613[/url]' post='6235676']
It's hilarious how not a lot of Loyal Party members and friends of our fraternal Russian allies post in this thread. It's all just seems to be bitter little dissidents from tiny little Warsaw Pact countries that are optimistic of the glorious Soviet Union going under. Quite sad really how you're all experts on 'what's going to happen...!?'
Fixed to reflect circa early 1989. Have fun, Comrade Carpucho
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1337005972[/url]' post='6235470']
HMRC will take a hit on Rangers, because when they go, EVERY professional sports club in the UK will no longer withhold PAYE and VAT monies from the Exchequer, they'll end up recovering the money through that. The soon to be removed 'Football Creditors Rule' and EBT ruling will get footballs finances back in order sharpish.
Precisely. Tax revenue is all about Deterrance since realistically the revenue can't have full visibility on what every individual and entity does. Losing money in one instance to provide an example to others makes perfect sense - its why HMRC or the IRS will spend disproportionate resources chasing, say a minicab firm or a restaurant and drive them over the edge if caught - the money involved in the individual case is trivial but the sector or aggregate has a lot of tax cheating, so take the occasional scalp to scare others even if in isolation a deal would raise more.
When there are exceptions, it's usually where rules are murky, the company is huge and the accused can credibly and justifiably point out that if they get hammered on a grey area they will do less business in the jurisdiction and net revenue will fall in the sector as a whole - see Goldman and Vodaphone for cases that may fall under this rationale. Rangers wasn't in a grey area really here, it can't move operations to Geneva and its future revenue is peanuts compared to clubs down south, let alone the real economy.
It surprises me Rangers supporters don't seem to get this point and to the contrary seem morally outraged that HMRC might even consider not taking pence in the pound.
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1337000711[/url]' post='6235054']
I've read this twice, does anyone have a scoobie of what he's talking about?
It's actually relatively coherent by his recent standards. He doesn't like the fact his beloved Troo Bloo Knights have lost and is playing the xenophobia card ("Arabian Knights") and the Whyte M.II card against team Green. Calling for somebody else to do due diligence on the shadowy foreign types and helpfully providing contact details to What he thinks is Green's solicitors so the Orcs can get their retaliation in early and flood the phone lines and email system with stupid questions and veiled threats. I'm sure that will Really help Field Fisher's motivation to stay with a process that has already led to litigation and horrific publicity for another law firm.
Never mind Parkhead's agent Whyte - is someone on P&B picking up Leggo's drinks bill so as to make the Bears look bad and scare off bidders? If so, such a massive monetary sacrifice should not go unrewarded.
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One thing that might be important: If the consortium really does contain 20 members than each individual is putting in less £500K even with announced acquisition fees to date. Thats not a lot of money for rich folks. If everything breaks perfectly for them (sanctions reversed, BTC result goes shockingly in their favor, Collyer Bristow gets hammered, SFL and SFA roll over, etc.) they each have a piece of a huge upside.
If things go as expected largely pear shaped they might be able to recover something from milking the Orcs via share issues, etc., may get lucky with stringng along a bargain basement team and may find a buyer once the club has its debts cleared even if its a shell of itself.
If everything goes against them as we hope, then well each of them is out about the price of a not terribly impressive fourth home. Green seems to be de facto retired so his reputation is less relevant, the others are keeping hidden and are probably abroad and in any case the Murrays and Whyte will draw most of the peepuls venom if it all goes Third Lanark.
If I had piles of cash looking to invest in this grim economic climate the above might not look a bad deal. But I don't think I would be interested in pouring lots of money into a club starting with a damaged team and with only one CL spot available by the time Rangers were eligible again. I certainly wouldn't want to "speculate to accumulate" to use the phrase Rangers Media has started to drag up.
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1336946176[/url]' post='6233758']
If that list of previous companies is true than there is no way whatsoever he is 'a fit and proper person'. Another punishment for Rangers
...To be fair, being associated with a dissolved company isn't bad in itself - a company can dissolve amicably after making everybody a pile of cash or after a successful sale of the assets. Some of those look like they might be sports agency related, and if the principals decide to split up it would make sense to dissolve the old company. Lots of investment vehicles are designed to dissolve and distribute assets after the portfolio is sold on. Not damning on its face.
I presume that the Scottish media will be sending proper business reporters this time to check whether there are Whyte style pillaged companies on the list or ordinary business practices. Surely they'll do that this time, right?
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1336935555[/url]' post='6232785']
I am willing to pledge the loose change in my car to the P&B Rangers bid.
This is a significant sum in the region of £7.50, in Macedonian denars, Serbian dinars and Bosnian marks.
The fact that this currency can't be exchanged in the UK is irrelevant. It adds a significant international dimension to the P&B bid going forward.
Later, when the P&B bid collapses under the weight of its own contradictions and personalities, I'll team up with Brian Kennedy to form "the Balkan Knights" for a new June quantum. Maybe by that stage ex-FK Obilic chairman Gio di Stefano will have shown his hand and come on board.
No! The Balkan Knights must insist on Arkan's widow Ceca for the Rangers board. I'm sure she could add flute band stylings into her turbo-folk repertoire and with her history of disgusting supremacist politics and embezzling money from football clubs she old fit right in.
I've already been told in no uncertain terms I'm not welcome as part of the P&B bid, but can I buy Bocanegra if I promise to give him to St. Pauli or the Philadelphia Union rather than Celtic?
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All this talk about Asian members of the consortium and Asian marketing opportunities - have people been following the situation in Cardiff? The new Asian owners there are floating the idea of changing the clubs nickname from bluebirds and the color from blue to red.
It turns out that blue is an inauspicious color in their area of China and "bluebird" is a rude word either in translation or phonetically.
Probably won't come into play as Singapore is no doubt different and seems to be a minority of the group, but the Gers playing in black and purple in Division 3 with Broxi the Panda Bear as mascot would be excellent.
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1336853931[/url]' post='6229200']
Away with you, buttock-cheek. We want nothing to do with your tainted dollars.
Fair enough. Dingwall take note: Simple and effective, no need for abusive emails and daft banners.
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1336852351[/url]' post='6229092']
I hate to be picky but did we not mention some ginger bottles? We don't get glass IRN BRU ones up out way but I've been collecting cans and I can seell them far about 1p each at the scrappy's I think.
We need cold hard cash now. Found $1.50 in change under the TV. Suggest P&B PR team press release announcing the big New York money has joined the bid.
Note: participation contingent on lowering Bocanegra and Edu's release fee to 25p any expunging all records of Reyna playing for the club.
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1336848070[/url]' post='6228792']
One of the conditions I see being that is it under english law only?! Can that be the case?
Surely you can't just pick and choose whatever law you want?
Actually, you can pick which law a contract is governed under and it's very common for big commercial contracts to be English or American (specifically NY) law even when the parties and subject of the contract have little or nothing to do with either. Plenty of Russian oil deals get done under English law, for example. The reason is that banks and big law firms are comfortable with these systems and the courts are seen as sophisticated in commercial matters (the latter isn't a big issue in Scotland but the first still is)
Local law still governs in a couple of instances regardless of the contract, however. Scottish property laws are different than English and trumps when the property is in Scotland. It is a very, very common mistake for Americans not to realize this and occasionally the English do it as well at the margins. That appears to be what happened with Ticketus.
If the troo bloo knights actually proceed, a Scottish law firm will be hired to advise the English firm Kennedy is using.
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1336822228[/url]' post='6227254']
Some more stats for no.8
St. Mirren's average home gate this season is 4,493.
Croatia, a country with a similar population to Scotland, has an average top flight attendance of 2,010 with the best supported club having an average of 3,875.
Hungary has a population twice that of Scotland yet their average top flight attendance is only 3,076.
Romania has a population which is four times greater than Scotland. Their average top flight attendance is 4,411.
Bulgaria has a population which is 50% greater than Scotland's. The average attendance in their top flight is a mere 1,627. Their best supported club has an average attendance of only 4,633.
I agree that the per capita figures are eye-opening and helpful to the debate, but I'd be cautious about using the above Eastern Bloc examples because their football is sadly a disaster. Croatia has a duopoly between Dinamo and Split that makes La Liga look balanced and competitive, Hungary has an almost unbelievably poisonous political overlay over the system and Romania has epic levels of corruption. All of them suffer from truly nasty hooligan elements that make the Aberdeen casuals in their heyday look like a Quaker meeting. All of them have whispers, and more than whispers, of match fixing on a systemic level.
The fact that per capita SPL attendance beats the Dutch and Serie A (where unlike some other bigger leagues there seem to be big gaps in the terraces so limited supply isn't the problem) is the key point for me.
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"Oh f**k, I accidentally wore the Celtic cuff links that Lawell gave me when I went into deep cover...must...remain...calm, they won't notice..."
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1336764150[/url]' post='6225673']
If Rangers fold I would love to f**k off to The Championshiip or even League 1 or 2 and leave you diddies to create the equivalent of the Welsh and Irish leagues. We are the hand that feeds you!
Dear Sweenzo - you are a) wrong and b) derailing an otherwise brilliant thread with your muppet trolling.
Signed - every sane Celtic fan in the World
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Vanguard Bears two days ago on twitter: appeals for calm and unity
Vanguard Bears last two hours on twitter: Denounce Follow Follow, rant about "the enemy within" and say FF will be dealt with at the appropriate time.
The only drawback of this is I am heading down the pub tonight with a bunch of people who have long since learned to rapidly change the subject when I bring up Scottish football.
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1336740106[/url]' post='6224224']
John Barnes?
No, no, no the limit has been reached. They don't deserve John Barnes. Trophys sold at auction to Beijing and LA interior decorators, St. Etienne bike purchased by a Croatian priest to pedal from hamlet to village and Ibrox ploughed over and sown with salt by all means yes - but not John Barnes. The European Human Rights Commission wouldnt wear it.
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I find the Pearl Harbor analogy quite apt. After all, FDR had been trying to sell it for years but found it difficult due to the long standing rumors about weak air defenses. Also, in November of 1940 a Japaneses blogger started a website called "Pearl Harbor Defenseless Against Carrier Attack". Lastly, when the new Naval commandant was appointed in 1941 basic research indicated he had been banned from command positions for eight years due to misconduct. The situation was exactly the same.
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Oh God help us all, let this drama end and Rangers die so I don't have to have my faith in human nature reduced on a daily basis by this filth.
A couple of months ago I would have thought they were "joking" about bringing back the old songs and a Protestant 11. I no longer think they are joking.
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To bring up the worst case never going to happen but what if scenario: if you were a serious group of investors who were intrigued by the medium term potential of Rangers from a largely or entirely business sense wouldn't waiting on the sidelines until now make a degree of sense? Part of the business case or Rangers is happy Orcs going through the turnstiles and buying tat, preferably on a long term basis. As this whole process has amply demonstrated, Rangers fans are collectively prone to lashing out and delusions of grandeur. They didn't want a NewCo, they didn't want to hear about operating on a shoestring and some of them had very distinct ideas of who should be allowed to rune their club.
Now, however: 1) The failed bids and drawn out process have pretty objectively indicated that the market value of the club isn't anywhere near the £18 Whyte "paid" let alne the inflated property book value, 2) it seems that even the thickest Orcs may have realized their club is in a spot of bother and will not be installing hover pitches and signing Drogba on a free anytime soon, 3) some of the uglier bits hidden n the woodwork that scared off Miller, and some of the attitudes of the SFA and SFL are more predictable, if not guaranteed, 4) a team of good solicitors may have figured out the hellishly complicated variables of Ticketus-Whyte floating charge-HMRC interactions enough so the risk can be reasonably quantified and provisions made and 5) anybody with a reasonable amount of money not named Declan whose google results don't turn up convictions for multiple homicides and/or redeveloping football grounds into mosques will be uncritically viewed as a savior by the peepul and the media and start with reserves of goodwill.
I am a little concerned that the Miller Incubator could be implemented by people with a stronger stomach than Miller, who would buy the club on the cheap, let OldCo die after making token moves for a CVA and blaming HMRC politics and tough out whatever penalties were imposed looking forward to a debt free club with a placated fan base run on a reasonable financial footing. They then do a Fiorentina purchase of the historical bits. It would be mad, but not sectionably mad.
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1336570001[/url]' post='6217304']
The downside of Rangers going out of existence is that from now until eternity, Celtic fans will assume that all diddy club fans used to be Rangers fans and only started supporting Motherwell/Hearts/St Mirren/whoever in summer 2012.
Maybe, but one of the best thing about this whole saga for me is that it has once and for all put to bed the lingering idea that certain, ahem, *skeptical* Celtic fans held that supporters of certain diddy teams contained a large number of bears without bus fare and were a Rangers Territorial reserve formation. Surely even the most paranoid Tim now has to acknowledge that almost to a man you were telling the truth all along and you really, really hate them just as much as you hate us. It will make it hard to make judgements unless a newly minted Motherwell fan has a badly covered over Rangers tattoo visble methinks. That SPL fan survey was pretty definitive.
On the draft thing, it's almost certainly illegal under EU law. The whole point of the draft is to give exclusive negotiating rights to a single club without the consent of the player. Under the current system youth players sign papers, but to work a draft has to force a player to either sign with one club or not play even though he is not under contract - I.e. exactly the Bosman situation which was ruled illegal. The US doesn't have this so the MLS can get away with a quasi draft.
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Not necessarily, it could also mean things at Ibrox are even worse than any of us diddies could have ever even hoped for.
This. I suspect that the banners and emails, while unbelievably stupid on the part of the Bears involved, weren't critical. However, the combination of the stuff we know about, confirmation of even some of the worst stuff we've be speculating about AND the realization that neither the Peepul or the football side of Ibrox had any tolerance for severe belt-tightening would drive a relatively sane business person (which Miller appears to be) to running for the exit.
The real killer here appears that they found something when they looked deeper. Miller had to be factoring in the big tax case and I don't think he really cared about the incubator preserving the club malarakey in the end so it wouldn't be that. If I had to guess, I'd say the catering/JJB/Ticketus contracts can't (contra to many assumptions) be torn up with any certainty, and that remaining cash flow has potential problems and/or even bare bones running costs for the club are much higher than anticipated. For example due to the bizzare way American sports operate their stadia, I can see even smart American advisors not adequately factoring in the bill for running Ibrox and Murray Park.
But it will be fun to pretend it was all the Ranger's supporters fault and that the lunatic fringe drove away their potential saviour, so lets stick with that story.
This whole thing is hell on us self-employed people in the wrong time zone. Impossible to get work done, it is.
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Big Rangers Administration/Liquidation Thread - All chat here!
in Celtic v Rangers, Rangers v Celtic
Posted · Edited by GirondistNYC
I love the fact that you are so wedded to your finance mindset that you think the likes of St. Johnstone have their own dedicated CP program. Aye, how's the money market portfolio looking this week? Well, we should be good on the broad basket of repos, the Munis and the GE Capital Paper, but I'm seriously worried about the basis risk on the St. Johnstone 30 day rollover - the new striker combination looked good in the pre-season and the yield is gonna go to shit.
You're substantive point ignores the fact that regular finance avenues are not exactly clamoring to fund Scottish football and a lot of the conventional finance is old fashioned bank loans and a/r finance rather than tradeable securities which will death spiral on each rollover and regular issuance like Greek debt. And ignores the fact that bank exposure to diddy teams is a rounding error compared to heir overall debt portfolio. Keeping an existing couple of million quid overdraft on a couple of clubs open provides a minor public image community relationship bonus. Cf, Rangers, the - Murray Years / Bank of Scotland / Ludicrous Exposure.
I don't disagree that clubs will face tougher terms on debt and trade credit going forward though and I think some people are ignoring this. HOWEVER 1) this will occur whether Rangers goes to the SPL, the 3rd, hell or the Connaught regional league 2) this will continue unless there is a chance to break out of the current system, 3) this is all the fault of Rangers, who have just given the world an extensive decade long course in why you should not give money to Scottish football clubs and 4) it will get worse, not better, if Rangers survive in the SPL.
It's a bit rich talking about how bad the other teams will have it when you're gone in these terms. It's like the gangster who introduced heroin to the neighborhood laughing on his way to court how people won't be able to handle the petty crime from junkies without him around.
(edited because I can't format)