The parcours is pretty flat, on the whole, and despite a couple of hilly stages towards the back end, I don't think its one that can whittle out the bigger riders, so I've stuck a couple of quid on Tom Dumoulin. The fact there's 3 ITTs (despite one being uphill) only confirms my feeling that this isn't a race that needs to be won in the mountains.
His only competition is really Nibali and Valverde.
Hopefully the race lives up to billing.