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rgreig

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Posts posted by rgreig

  1. 6 hours ago, edinburghhonestman said:

    Also doesn't take in to account other revenue streams to get total income. Looking at average gates Dunfermline's receipts are probably £700-900k more than ours depending on what they charge.

    Nor does it take in to account the financial state of the club. The good thing about Ayr is that we're in a good place financially so anything over budget should be able to be used to keep developing the squad rather than servicing debt.

    Yes this is true although I assume the clubs reasonably accurately budget for gate receipts. I don't think the delta is as much as 700-900k though. Dunfermline had a total attendance in league 1 this season of 85,969 (according to Transfermarkt). That compares with 61,450 last season in the championship, so a very healthy increase indeed. We had 35,020 in 21/22 and 39,829 this season (which is a decent increase too). Assuming the average ticket cost is £15 that would be about 325k extra revenue. You can add catering revenue too to that.

    I also calculated the prize money above the minimum the clubs could have budgeted for. I am not sure whether Dundee Utd's money from their European games was known ahead of time or not and it was significant. But the key figures are (these are the deltas above the minimum):

    Ross County - £75,750

    Dundee Utd - £624,520 or £59,020 depending on how you budget Europe

    Inverness - £569,300

    Ayr - £469,800

    Partick - £289,420

    Queen's Park - £272,100

    Raith - £179,350

    Morton - £120,700

    Hamilton - £73,970 (but this excludes the Challenge Cup or whatever it is called)

    Arbroath - £57,900

    Cove - £3,000

    If we can get £200k for Dipo then from the CFO's perspective this was an outstanding season and the prize money alone has just about made up for our smaller gate receipts than teams like Partick.

  2. 19 minutes ago, edinburghhonestman said:

    If you haven't seen the full thread, this is the total prize money each of the teams in the Championship next season won this year, showing both Partick and Ross County and assuming ICT don't win the cup:

    Dundee United £1.982m

    Ross County £1.43m

    ICT £820k

    Ayr £721k

    Partick £540k

    QP £523k

    Raith £430k

    Morton £371.5k

    Arbroath £309k

    Dunfermline £198k

    Airdrie £143k

    This is a very interesting list but I would have represented the numbers slightly differently. In each of the competitions there is a minimum amount that you would receive (e.g. in the premier league, the minimum amount of money you would get was the amount that Dundee Utd got - £1,289,200). I would assume that each club had constructed their 2022/23 budget on that basis and therefore has already spent that money on wages etc. We know that some clubs (e.g. Partick) had made assumptions about finishing the league in a certain position therefore had already budgeted even more than the minimum.

    So I think it is interesting to look at the amount above the minimum each club received - depending on the club's overall financial position that will give an insight into which clubs are able to increase their budget in 2023/24. Or in the case of clubs coming done, how well they can soften the landing.

  3. 1 hour ago, GaryMc93 said:

    Extra money for 2nd is useful but still limited in what we can do due to address certain areas due to players being under contract for next season without moving them on first.

    Does anyone have an idea of what a competitive playing budget for the championship would be? I have been trying to figure it out based on published accounts but it is tricky since the majority of clubs at our level get away with filing accounts for a small company (which means just a balance sheet not an income statement).

    Partick do file full accounts and for the year ending May 2022 they had a total employee budget of just under 1.9m - but that is on the basis of 26 playing staff and an astonishing 74 other staff. Queen's Park's most recent accounts were for the period when they were in League 1 and showed about 1.6m in total on staff.

    On that basis, it seems 1m would be very competitive?

  4. 15 minutes ago, ayrunitedfw said:

    Everyone has an ego, I probably didn't word it great. What I meant is for every negative comment on here he will have people patting him on the back and praising him. 
     

    I remembering reading an interview with Tony Fernandes a while ago. He was the guy who bought AirAsia from the Malaysian government when it was a shambles and turned it around. Subsequently he bought QPR. He said in the interview that QPR was a more difficult challenge than anything he had faced in business. At AirAsia he could change almost anything if he wanted to - but at QPR there was a limit because the 11 players on the pitch had a bigger tangible influence. Secondly, everybody had an opinion about what he should or shouldn't be doing and weren't shy at voicing it. I guess that would sound familiar to David Smith.

    Any successful business looks critically at the previous year's performance to see how they could improve. Apple don't sit back because they have sold a lot of phones in the past, they have to have objectives that drive the business forward. While Ayr has exceeded last year's objectives, Bullen will have a new and tougher set for next season and we all assume will have significantly more budget with which to achieve those objectives. Smith won't be judging success based on sentiment analysis of posts on an online forum.

  5. 3 hours ago, Trogdor said:

    The most frustrating thing for me is the nature of the first goal. It was literally a carbon copy of what Partick did to us the week before. What exactly were we working on in training?

    Yes, I think we need to look at the coaching as well. Our fullbacks had no idea what they were supposed to be doing last night. While we all know that neither of them is great, I think it's becoming clear as we look at the many failings in the team that we need to upgrade the coaching staff (with the obvious exception of the goalkeeping coach).

    I'm very interested to hear the next interviews from Bullen and Mathie. While I expect them to emphasise the positives about the last season they do also need to be honest with fans about the thigs that were unacceptable and which need to be improved, and tell us how they are going to do that.

  6. 3 minutes ago, No_Problemo said:

    Truly pathetic stuff from us. That shouldn’t be happening, even with ten men. 

    I think the last two games have highlighted all our weaknesses - both in the playing squad and in the management.

    I hope we are able to increase the quality throughout the squad. If we use the additional money we have received (or will receive from the sale of Akinyemi) wisely then this will ultimately be seen as an important season for us.

    I hope that the Smith and Mathie are now under no illusions about how much investment this team needs in order to be able to challenge for promotion credibly.

  7. 2 hours ago, No_Problemo said:

    I don’t think I would go out and just chuck forward thinking players at it. I can’t actually decide what team I want - Maguire to start and hope he can recreate his start to the game from last week and maintain it or Smith in midfield to allow us a bit more control. 
     

    I think I am edging towards Maguire, with Ashford and Mullin out wide. If we are even one up with 30 to go, then we have O’Connor who we all know can have a huge impact off the bench. 

     

    I would go with Smith. I think 5 in midfield and exerting control there will be key to us having any sort of chance at all.

    I don't rate Maguire at all - he struts around thinking he is better than everyone else and has done very little so far in his time with us. Having said that, one of the things he did was play the pass to set up the equaliser when we last played Partick in the league!

  8. 32 minutes ago, No_Problemo said:

    I think Partick will play their own game regardless tbh - it made absolutely no difference on Friday night. If anything, it was our team that was set up as if we had no idea Dipo wasn’t playing. 

    For me, the most important question for Friday is how we're going to set up in defence. I hope Bullen was sufficiently angry at our fullbacks to drop them both.

  9. 3 minutes ago, Richey Edwards said:

    Yep. Absolutely not a chance are this Ayr United team keeping a clean sheet AND scoring at least three.

    I think we could score a few goals but I agree there is almost no chance we won't concede.

    Partick lost 2 to Raith in the last game of the season and then 3 to QP in the first leg of the play-off. So I don't think defensively they are very good - but neither are we.

  10. 22 minutes ago, ayrunitedfw said:

    Aye I don't get it at all. Like just don't mention it as it's not like it had really been leaked or that. The question effectively backs Bullen into a corner and he can either lie (which he did) or be honest. If the interviewer was doing it on the sly then surely club can get that question cut out. 

    It's just weird. As others have said, why include the question in the edited interview footage? And while I can understand not revealing that an injured player will be fit to play, the converse doesn't make much sense. I can only assume that there is more to it than we know.

    Anyway, our season is over and I think it was overall far more successful than any of us would have predicted at the end of the league cup group stage. We are far away from having a squad that is ready for the step up, but if we use the additional money from this season wisely to strengthen the starting eleven then I think we will be able to look forward to next season.

  11. 3 hours ago, WATTOO said:

    I don't think there's really a "good" option as such, personally I'm just glad we haven't got SHTEVIE BOY as while the rest are pretty incompetent he's a step above that I'd say, especially where Ayr United are concerned.......

    Yes, I think we could do a *lot* worse than Aitken. At least he doesn't measure how well he has refereed the game by how many red cards he has dished out.

  12. 7 hours ago, itzdrk said:

    Before we get carried away about cash,  the £475,000 figure needs some perspective.  At least half is paid in advance in 3 instalments throughout the season.  At a rough guess that'll be £200,000 (ish) to us in the close season.  

    The club finishing 10th gets 175k so I presume they can safely pay that in instalments earlier in the season, but I don't see how they could go above that figure? Surely we will now get the remaining 300k?

    Do we get any additional money for the TV coverage or is that all wrapped up in the money received already from the BBC deal?

    For the gate receipts, it is money that won't have been budgeted for so it should still be viewed as a bonus. I hope it's Partick since that will maximise our revenue.

  13. 1 hour ago, North Terrace Gazza said:

    I am a season ticket holder so attend all home games and I probably go to about 8 or 9 away games a season. Would I travel (even in a free bus) to Inverness on a Friday night with a chance of a play off slot? Not a chance in hell

    It is really unfortunate that it's a Friday evening. I would go if possible but like many people cannot fit it in around work commitments. Had it been at Cappielow or Firhill I am sure we would have taken at least 1000. The luck of the draw I guess.

  14. 3 hours ago, ayrunitedfw said:

    I'd say we're probably needing more than 5 new players tbh.

    Presuming Dipo is away, As starters: Albinson, Musonda, Dempsey, Murdoch, Mullin

    so needing as a bare minimum LB, RB, CB, CM, Winger, 2 strikers 

    That is probably quite harsh on McGinty who has been largely fine this season. 

    For me 5 is fine if they are going to be a step up in terms of quality. We have seen what just a couple of skilful and creative players can do for us in this division.

    I think if we had better players at LB and RB then McGinty and Musonda would be fine at CB.

    Does Bullen have a preferred formation he is trying to find players to fit?

  15. 9 minutes ago, No_Problemo said:

    It doesn’t seem to work will quite as well at home…

    Im on a stream so can’t be totally sure - but that missed chance sums up Ashford for the horrific footballer player that he is. 

    However bad Ashford looks on the stream let me assure you he is ten times worse live. I cannot believe he even made it to half time.

  16. 17 hours ago, jm86 said:

    ICT scraping together the results that will probably see them into the top 4. Last two games are home to Dundee then us. Probably win them as well. 5th place beckons. Even winning our next two games we could still finish 6th, as Morton's three remaining games all look eminently  winnable. 

    I watched the Hamilton vs Inverness game last night. To be honest if it hadn't been for suicidal defending and a total lack of discipline for the second Inverness goal in particular I did think that Accies would have taken something from the game. If Dundee don't revert to their terrible form of a few months ago I think they should be capable of winning against Inverness.

  17. 41 minutes ago, No_Problemo said:

    Going by different posts, given we dominated the midfield for large parts - was he not a little better yesterday?

    Well, I was certainly delighted when he came off. Some very poor free kicks yesterday and some terrible first touches. Although we were generally on top in the second half there was in my eyes a noticeable improvement when he came off.

  18. 17 minutes ago, North British 2 said:

    Bullen will be at Ayr United next season and the season after that . This fanciful idea that he won't be around for the  medium to long term is bonkers . He is in with the bricks as they say . Anybody who thinks otherwise hasn't been paying attention.  

    I certainly agree he is going to be here next season. If I were evaluating him I objectively I would look at two key things:

    1 - achieving targets set at start of the season. None of knows for sure what his targets were but I would hazard a guess that mid-table was the minimum and play-off spot was the stretch. If we manage to finish in fourth (big if) then Bullen can comfortably mark that as complete.

    2 - budget compared to peers, and league position compared with that. I think that Dundee, Partick and QP will all have had significantly higher player budgets than us. But Raith, Morton and Inverness are likely to have similar budgets to us and on that basis Bullen has done well to finish above them (again, assuming Inverness don't overtake us which is certainly possible). Bullen can make the case that he done well with the budget he has been given.

    In terms of player development, which is clearly a lot more subjective, I think it's much less positive. McKenzie may have improved a bit but we have others who are arguably worse - Reading and Houston for example - and some who haven't held down a place in the first team (Smith, Ecrepont). The players who arguably made the biggest difference were brought in on loan (Mullin and Chalmers). This is where, if I were on the board, I would be asking questions of Bullen in terms of the plan for next season.

  19. 5 minutes ago, ayrunitedfw said:

    We've also recently handed out two year deals to McGinty and McKenzie. If we are are wanting to progress to the next level then we simply need better than that. Other than Albinson, Musonda, Murdoch, Dempsey, Mullin* and Dipo I don't think we'd miss the rest. 

    Yes, agree. I will judge Bullen on who he releases. If we don't offload the likes of Reading, Ashford, JML etc. then it shows in my opinion really poor judgement from Bullen.

  20. 28 minutes ago, No_Problemo said:

    At times this season I have been heads gone at how shite we were and for a period that was most weeks. We have got to a point now where we can play some good stuff - but we are just so inconsistent. We just didn’t do well enough in the January window to take that next step! I think we’ll finish top four and when we reflect on that, ultimately it’ll have been a good season. 

    I agree with your prediction of our top four finish.

    I think for Bullen, it's hard to pass judgement because we don't know what he is telling Mathie and Smith. I am sure that he has exceeded the targets he has been set for the season. Our league finish if it is indeed top four will be better than most of us expected and the likely sale of Akinyemi will bring in cash that would never have been budgeted for. Although Akinyemi isn't just down to Bullen you have to give him credit for his development through the season. That's why I would keep him next season - in any other area of work you cannot give someone targets and then when they exceed those targets say it isn't good enough.

    What I do hope is that Bullen is making the case that we need to increase the quality throughout the squad. Players like McKenzie work incredibly hard and are valuable but we need a few more with the quality of Chalmers in order to be able to compete at the top.

    I am looking forward to the play-offs. Whatever legitimate criticism has been levelled at Bullen around his ability to react and change games, his teams do work very hard for 90 minutes and I am certain that they will give everything and that gives us a chance.

     

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