Gordon EF
-
Posts
9,831 -
Joined
-
Last visited
-
Days Won
19
Content Type
Profiles
Forums
Events
Store
Posts posted by Gordon EF
-
-
21 minutes ago, MarkoP said:
Should we not at least give him till after Christmas?
I think Shankland and maybe Nisbet are already close to surplus to requirement
I'd be surprised if either of them made it. It feels like we've abandoned the two up front experiment so 4 centre forwards probably isn't a neccesity.
1 -
12 minutes ago, MarkoP said:
Those are more who I’d see as core, dead certs to be going
Although Hanley, MacLean and Kelly are probably pretty close
Yeah.
You're probably looking at Kelly, Hanley, McLean, Armstrong, Brown, and then one of either Cooper, Souttar, or another attacking player as being the 6 to add to that, as things stand.
1 -
11 minutes ago, Alan Twelve said:
The CM and AM will be McLean and Armstrong or I'll be very surprised. I'd also be surprised if there's a fourth centre forward and if the third one isn't Brown. The other one nailed on, if fit, is Hanley, I reckon.
Agreed that McLean, Armstrong, Hanley, and Brown are all very likely to make it. I think there's at least some degree of doubt around all of them though. I don't think there would be huge amounts of shock or outcry if any of these guys end up not making the cut. More of a riased eyebrow and slight surprise.
0 -
Assuming a 23-man squad, no injuries, and no major drops or increase in form, I'd imagine the stick-ons will be:
GK: Gunn, Gordon
FB: Hickey, Patterson, Robertson, Tierney
CB: Porteous, Hendry, McKenna
CM: McGregor, Gilmour, McTominay
AM: McGinn, Christie, Ferguson
CF: Dykes, Adams
That's 17, leaving 6 open spots, likely - 1 GK, 2 CBs, 1 CM, 1 AM, 2 CFs.
I'm not sure anyone outside that 17 is nailed on for a place
0 -
Clarke really needs to find a system where we can get 11 full backs / midfielders on the pitch at the same time.
3 -
1 hour ago, Monkey Tennis said:
I maintain that the Tartan Army section is the most bonkers one on here.
I've really not said anything that can be considered especially controversial, let alone offensive or unacceptable.
Yet the red dots rain down. It's genuinely bloody weird. Batter on though if it pleases you. It's as if the only way to enjoy good news for Scotland is to lose all perspective and go way OTT. Anyone suggesting anything more measured needs burned as a witch.
This place makes the Covid thread look like a berth for the rational.
At least you're not being a drama queen about it.
2 -
12 hours ago, ford prefect said:
I remember something similar from Henry after they lost 1-0 at Hampden. Words to the effect of "see you in Paris" what price a Christie 30 yarder in Seville?
Pretty sure Trezeguet in particular was running his mouth. That picture of him looking fucking scunnered after Faddy's goal was enjoyable.
1 -
It should be a straight swap in for McKenna or Cooper on the basis that there's probably not going to be much opportunity to utilise Tierney's attacking quality in this game anyway.
The decision for the Georgia and Norway games probably needs a bit more thought.
1 -
Well all this pant wetting will have made a lot of people take a long hard look at their behaviour. I'm sure of it.
1 -
57 minutes ago, andyg83 said:
. I cannae stand the royals but surely there are levels of basic decency?
There are. And hereditary monarchies fall below that standard. No problem with the song.
12 -
11 hours ago, DC92 said:
Yep, but my point is there's a big difference between a 1 in 100 chance and a 1 in 20 chance. Not trying to say it's any more likely
Relatively, yes. Absolutely, there's not a big difference at all.
0 -
3 hours ago, DC92 said:
The silly odds are what's implied by the much-quoted nerd stats. I'm just saying I don't think it's quite that unlikely in reality.
I think 99%+ is probably a bit much but a quick calculation with even some fairly conservative numbers gives us a huge probability of qualifying.
Norway beat Cyprus - 95%
Us getting a point minimum in Spain - 10%
Norway beating Spain - 33%
Us beating Georgia - 50%
Us getting at worst a 1 goal defeat to Norway - 60%
All of that is already giving us around a 94% chance of qualification.
0 -
23 minutes ago, DC92 said:
Obviously there's no value in that at evens, but if you're offering 99/1 odds (per the stattos) then it might be worth a fiver.
Yeah, but that's kind of the point. If anyone's only willing to take the bet at silly odds then they're basically admitting that it's incredibly likely that we qualify.
0 -
7 minutes ago, nate said:
Cheers. You have brightened my mood immeasurably. Germany here we come, then. Whatever, the Norway-Spain match is TV unmissable, particularly since it doesn’t clash with any of our fixtures. I guess we’re hoping for a draw here, tho I’ll still be investing a bob on the homesters at what should be pretty tempting odds.
Your possession stats also brought a smile to my angst ridden chops. 17%? (Japan v Spain) There is something ridiculous, if not surreal, about this, even allowing for the tactical nous behind it. Somehow it just doesn’t seem fair. You wonder if 17% could even be surpassed, out there in Seville next month.
I'll be dusting off the old Spain top from 2010.
It's also worth mentioning that Norway haven't beaten a seed 1 or 2 team in qualifying for 8 years. They're going to have to do it twice in a month if they want to qualify ahead of us.
0 -
1 hour ago, nate said:
I agree. Norway beating Spain isn’t as unlikely as some are suggesting, given the probable group situation/mentality at the time. You have a home side throwing the kitchen sink at Spain knowing it’s win or out. And you have a Spain side with two easy matches still to come, ensuring them top spot whatever. Norway will be the more motivated on this occasion. This scenario is of course dependent on Spain beating us in Seville, which unfortunately I think is very probable. We had an outlandishly meagre 25% possession against them at Hampden, which might be some kind of record for a winning underdog at International level (anyone know if it actually is?). Expect similar stats in Seville. And Spain will certainly not be as complacent/arrogant this time around by changing 8 players from their previous match. If we get anything from this fixture it will be joyous surprise
All from World Cup 2022...
Morocco beat Portugal with 27%
Japan beat Germany with 26%
Morocco beat Spain (pens) with 23%
Japan beat Spain with 17%
It's not particularly freakish anymore to see this when you have one team who're deliberately going out to let the opponents have possession in safe areas and capitalise on mistakes as an explicit tactic.
I don't buy for a second that Spain will take some laid back attitude into the Norway game. If they beat us and lose to Norway, they'll still be in 3rd place going into the last two games and be in danger of not winning the group. Plus, even if they do qualify, they'll know they'll take heavy criticism for losing two games to Scotland and Norway in one qualification campaign.
Going into a game against Spain knowing that you have to win in the 90 and, to some extent, play of the front foot, isn't exactly a great place to be.
Spain have only lost 6 games in the 90 across 37 competition fixtures since the start of 2020. It's not unforeseeable but it's considerably more likely that Norway don't win than they do.
0 -
32 minutes ago, Distant Doonhamer said:
Outlined above that one point against Spain would mean we qualify.
One point v Spain gives us 16 points if we lose our other 2 games.
Norway need to win all 3 games to get 16 points.
If Spain draw with us and lose to Norway they get to 16 points assuming they win their other 2 games.
If all that happens we end up in a 3 way tie with Spain and Norway but would top the group on the first decider which is points gained in the matches between the tied teams.
Ooft. Good working out.
0 -
Every single one of these needs to happen for us not to qualify automatically
1. Norway beat Cyprus away (A) - very likely
2. We get a point or less against Spain (A) - very likely
3. Norway beat Spain (H) - unlikely
4. We get a point or less against Georgia (A) - 50/50
5. Norway beat us at Hampden - say 33.3% chance
Realistically, there are 3 matches where we have a big chance to qualify - Spain to get at least a point is Oslo in the 2nd October game day, us to beat Georgia in Tiblisi in the 1st November game day, us to get at least a point at Hampden against Norway on the last day.
I get being overly nervous but there is an enormous chance that at least one of these results happens.
If we were in Norway's position, we wouldn't be giving ourselves a hope in hell.
If anyone wants to bet that we don't qualify, you're free to give me your money.
2 -
It'll never happen obviously but some folk could do with keeping the head after poor results. We got destroyed by a rancid Ireland side just over a year ago and then went a full year with a 100% record in competitive games.
3 -
Just now, Ludo*1 said:
Yeah, he was saying that Southgate should really be finding a way to play both but if he was insisting on just one, it should be Maddison.
Did he not say he'd play Bellingham deeper and Maddison behind Kane?
0 -
Just now, Highlandmagar said:
We are waaaaay behind these sides. Qualifying for tournaments is our silverware.
Away. England are one of the 2/3 best sides in Europe and top 5 in the world. There's room between "qualifying is our silverware" and being as good as England are at the moment.
4 -
Scotland: Played - 5, Points - 15
Rep. Ireland /Wales / N. Ireland: Played - 16, Points - 13.
5 -
43 minutes ago, jamamafegan said:
If Barnes truly wants to switch allegiance to Scotland and wear the shirt with honour then he should be made to swear an oath and bend the knee to King Clarke within the grounds of Scone Palace.
Then he's got to pranky Southgate and call him a horse-faced p***k.
0 -
If he wants to commit to Scotland, can add something to our squad, and gives 100%, then get him in. There have been plenty of Scots born players who've underperformed and shown less than 100% enthusiasm to play for Scotland.
The vast majority of countries use eligibility rules to their advantage. Ultimately, we're competing against countries with much larger populations and player pools than we are. It's silly not to use any edge we can get.
4 -
5 minutes ago, 2426255 said:
If Norway win on Tuesday I'd fancy taking points away in Georgia against a team who have nothing really to play for that have already guaranteed a playoff spot. Georgia have been disappointing in this qualifying campaign - they were lucky to beat Cyprus, draw with Norway and were soundly beaten by Scotland and Spain. They haven't performed well as a team.
If Georgia win on Tuesday I'd also be optimistic of at least drawing at home to Norway, but Norway will be motivated to earn a playoff place. I see that as a riskier outcome personally plus they were unlucky to lose to Spain, draw with Georgia and a bit unlucky to lose to Scotland.
That's just how I see it although I respect that there are pros and cons to both outcomes.
If Norway fail to get a top 2 spot then whether they get a play-off place has nothing to do with how they finish this group. It's completely down to how many teams ahead of them in the Nations League rankings qualify automatically.
1
Who’s on the plane?
in Tartan Army Ramblings
Posted
I think that's the way I see it. With 23, you're looking at 3 keepers and then more or less 2 players for each outfield position. Assuming we keep the 5-4-1 / 3-4-3 formation, then I think we'll be taking at least 5 centre backs. Those will most likely be Porteous, Hendry, McKenna, Hanley, plus one other. Tierney obviously covers both the centre back and left wing back position, so I'd imagine that 'extra man' will be used for a third forward, behind Dykes and Adams. Currently, the third forward is likely to be Jacob Brown but I don't think you can rule out Clarke going with a different option, given how little comeptitive football Brown has actually played for us.