Dawson Park Boy

Best post this afternoon. Well done. It all helps to alleviate the boredom.

If he’s not privy to all the up to date info, then who is?

Back in January the editor of the Lancet (he was on QT) was saying that there was nothing to worry about and he was privy to all the info. He has since been backtracking but his earlier writings have been exposed. How can you then blame politicians, who are no EXPERTS on this, for being too slow?

Absolutely. I went on about this way back in the thread that it is the infectious nature of this which is the swine and therefore the need for some lockdown. Please keep up.

Experts always need to be challenged where possible. Examples Neil Ferguson persuaded the government to slaughter millions of cattle, pigs and sheep during the foot and mouth epidemic. Later proved wrong. 95 % of economists said that UK should join the euro. It would have been disastrous losing the means to control currency through interest rates. Thanks to Brown we averted this disaster. Experts predicted that we would lose a million jobs after a VOTE for Brexit. The opposite happened. Experts are essential to our way of life but always need to be challenged. In this crisis, medics and scientists will want the government to do everything to eradicate the disease but a PM must balance this against the needs of society in terms of economic well being. You, I think you are a photographer, and I would guess you want to see lots of pictures in your paper. However, your editor must judge the balance between script and picture for the wellbeing of the paper. Am I making sense?

Such an intelligent response!

Thanks for all the responses. Im no expert on this but neither should we put ourselves totally in the hands of ‘experts’. Hopefully, some kind of vaccine or treatment will be found but all I am saying is that we cannot go on with lockdown for ever. Some people on here speak as if they know it all. They don’t. They just spout what they read and what suits their prejudices. I just hope that our politicians and leaders make the correct judgement calls as the time will come when we have to tolerate a certain amount of deaths in order to save the economy. I have also learnt, from the BBC strange as it may seem, that some of the deaths classified as cv19 were really down to other factors but that the person had cv19. We therefore need better statistics including a full analysis of the age range, underlying illnesses and any other factors pertaining to the deceased. I think that may be one of the reasons why zGermany has a very low death rate. Not very cheery stuff but we need to keep probing and asking questions.

No need to go to those lengths. You can save the gas. Just let them go about their normal lives rather than imprisoning them as is happening at the moment (I’m included) and as a consequence reducing their lifespan.

You don't think the Conservative govt are aware that we need to get back to normal life asap? Absolutely, and it’ll happen sooner than you think.

About 10 years ago, flu killed 20000. Current estimate for cv19 is around 5000. New Imperial College study. Half a million or thereabouts die in UK every year. Anything interesting to add?

Okay, as far as I’m aware most people gain immunity once they have had it.- herd immunity - apparently, people have been getting it since December/January. You are correct - it is much more infectious than ordinary flu and can display very different symptoms in different people - witness BPM having a bad dose. However, the majority barely know they have it. New news just in from Dr Doom (Ferguson) at Imperial who is now estimating around 5000 deaths with the peak coming in about 1 week. Very good news. My source for this is Prof Karol Sikora. The period of lockdown should be around 4 weeks to allow everyone to become clear of the infection or be hospitalised and not infect others. We will never totally be clear but if you see what BPM from the sharp end is saying, unless we want an unmitigated disaster with all the social and anti-social consequences we MUST get the show back on the road with all the health problems attached. Its all very well for folks in government paid jobs to pontificate on this but there is a REALITY which needs addressing

Agree about the finances situation. For the small retail and leisure businesses, the local authorities are saying they will be paying out the grants next week. Ive done the furloughing of staff but when we see the cash, I don’t know. Regarding bank finance, I gave up trying to get through to mine but eventually I got a recorded message asking me to email details and then they said they would get back. Still no response. I’ll try next week. We now have no income and need to pay staff and have lots of creditors who, as yet, are not getting nasty. Unfortunately, a large stock sitting idle doesn’t do you any good. This is where I’m coming from .

Thanks. Just thought it might be of interest.

Now you’re getting interesting and trying to address the subject,. Out of the 86000 cases in Italy, 66000 are still active in which 6% are serious. Of the other 20000, 9000 died and 11000 recovered which is a high death rate. I don’t have the stats on this but, apparently, the vast majority were over 80 as Italy has a high longevity rate and the disease probably just tipped them over. The number of new cases seems to be stabilising as so many people now have immunity. Actually, I’m not arguing against lockdown but rather that it needs to have a fixed duration to break the cycle of infection. There does need to be an assessment of downsides and mortality outcomes due to lockdown against the risks of returning to normality alongside the benefits of a returning economy and general wellbeing to the population. Lots of pluses and minuses. Interestingly, Sweden has not gone for lockdown and doesn’t seem to be any worse off. Anyway, thanks for addressing the problem rather than just tossing out abuse as others with closed minds do.

Yes, lots of people will get it but only a tiny percentage will need hospitalisation. Just like the common flu and, remember most people are vaccinated against that. Thats the point. The death rate is about the same. At least you don’t succumb to foul language, unlike some others. This is a serious matter and needs proper debate.

Okay, smart ass. Whats your exit plan?

Around half a million folks die in the UK every year, with all kinds of illnesses and diseases. Some are tragic like youngsters succumbing to terrible diseases way before their time. But that is life, I’m afraid. There has to be an end game or millions will be unemployed on a permanent basis with thousands dying of depression, heart attacks, obesity, alcoholism, you name it. As I say, the cure will be worse than the disease! Calling me an idiot (which doesn’t bother me, by the way) only reinforces just how lacking in foresight most of you are. The latest death forecast btw, is now around 5k as against an average flu death year of around 8000. Even Andrew Neil is starting to question the rationale now. Take a look at his twitter account

Still think we’ll all be back in business around Easter Trump isn’t doling out a trillion plus to just watch the economy go down the pan. Once the hospitals can cope that’ll be it. If the US leads, the rest of the world will follow Fast reaching the stage where the cure is worse than the disease.

What paper was it in? Daily Mail

BPM - big story in the papers today saying that the epicentre of European cv was in the Austrian Tyrol region, in particular the ski resort of Ischgli. Any chance that’s where you were? Apparently, big scandal brewing in Austria over the cover up.

You are correct. Sooner we get back to normal the better.

You are correct.

No, if an employer pays 80% of the normal wage they get that refunded. If they pay 100%, they get 80% of that refunded. It is up to the employer to decide as to whether they wish to pay the 20% topup.

Well said. Most of the textile and leather companies in Northern Italy (Lombardy)were bought over by Chinese companies and large numbers of Chinese settled there. There are regular direct flights to Wuhan from there with Chinese going back and forward regularly. This is not much reported on as it is considered to be discriminatory.

Okay - I’ll not return for at least a week. Plenty to do in dealing with my businesses.