blue4578 Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 No it could have been as low as 110 with 1000 on arsenal to make up the 100% book. I believe the draw got matched not far from 1000 though at 4-0. No. The draw price could've been anything, the book percentage doesn't have to be 100%. If a team is 1.01 to lay, the other outcomes can both be 1000, as is often the case with a few seconds to go with a team two or more goals ahead. I may be wrong, but I had a quick look at the market with a minute or two to go. It looked like nothing had been matched on the draw bigger than 9.0. I could be wrong, but it seemed like almost all of the action had been on laying Arsenal. Newcastle had been matched at 1000. The site crashing regularly on Saturday probably led to less in-running betting. If you really want to know what was matched on the draw, just check Betfair Data in a few days. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lerwick Lad Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 (edited) Cheers Blue. Edited February 7, 2011 by Lerwick Lad 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fanny paddery Posted February 7, 2011 Author Share Posted February 7, 2011 No. The draw price could've been anything, the book percentage doesn't have to be 100%. If a team is 1.01 to lay, the other outcomes can both be 1000, as is often the case with a few seconds to go with a team two or more goals ahead. I may be wrong, but I had a quick look at the market with a minute or two to go. It looked like nothing had been matched on the draw bigger than 9.0. I could be wrong, but it seemed like almost all of the action had been on laying Arsenal. Newcastle had been matched at 1000. The site crashing regularly on Saturday probably led to less in-running betting. If you really want to know what was matched on the draw, just check Betfair Data in a few days. I wasnt saying that this was the case, but i was pointing out that just because Arsenal were 1.01 that does not infer anything about the other two prices, such as the 800 predicted by the original poster. From what i rememeber on sat the site was down during some of the second half, which as you said probably severly limited the betting during the Newcastle comeback. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue4578 Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 I download the data file every week, so I'll take a look at the odds for that game if I remember. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lerwick Lad Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 I wasnt saying that this was the case, but i was pointing out that just because Arsenal were 1.01 that does not infer anything about the other two prices, such as the 800 predicted by the original poster. From what i rememeber on sat the site was down during some of the second half, which as you said probably severly limited the betting during the Newcastle comeback. Just for clarification, I never said anything about the draw being 800 when Arsenal were 1.01. I was merley suggesting it is logical that if you could still only get 1.01 on Arsenal when down to 10 men and at 4-1 then it is likley that 800 - 1,000 would have been on offer on the draw at some point in the game when 4-0. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fanny paddery Posted February 7, 2011 Author Share Posted February 7, 2011 Just for clarification, I never said anything about the draw being 800 when Arsenal were 1.01. I was merley suggesting it is logical that if you could still only get 1.01 on Arsenal when down to 10 men and at 4-1 then it is likley that 800 - 1,000 would have been on offer on the draw at some point in the game when 4-0. and I agree I was merely pointing out that by knowing Arsenal were 1.01 you cant infer the price of the other options. I think around 800 at 4-0 would probably be right but I can imagine the liquidity wouldnt have been great 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mid-table Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 The draw and Newcastle could have both been 1.01 to back, it's irrelevant in terms of book % anyway. As blue says, if Arsenal were 1.01 to lay, then there is the 100% book on just that one outcome. Any back price available is just overround. This topic has actually reminded me of the last great Arsenal collapse, myself and blue sitting in the betfair box at Craven Cottage as Spurs scored twice in injury time, one of the other people in the box accidentally laying Arsenal at 1.02 for £100 instead of £10 and making £5,000 out of it. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue4578 Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Was that accidental? I can't remember, I always thought he meant to do it as he was covering part of his accumulator. You're forgetting the Arsenal collapse against Wigan. 2-0 up with ten minutes left and lost 3-2. I think Wigan were something like 500/1 to win just before they scored their first. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mid-table Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Was that accidental? I can't remember, I always thought he meant to do it as he was covering part of his accumulator. You're forgetting the Arsenal collapse against Wigan. 2-0 up with ten minutes left and lost 3-2. I think Wigan were something like 500/1 to win just before they scored their first. He was trying to cover about £500, he made substantially more from the 1.02 lay than he stood to get from any other bets. Even reading your post I didn't remember the Wigan game, had to check it on soccerbase to see when it happened. Don't know what I was doing that day, it seems to be erased from my memory completely. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
punkstar_666 Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Think people on here had trouble with Betfair, well this is for you, its a cut and paste job. We are all aware about log in issue affecting Serbian customers in past months, when we weren't able to log in to our accounts via main site. Well, just two days after that problem seemed to be solved, much, much worse thing happened to me. They maybe fixed that problem, but obviously with some major leak. I logged in last evening just to realize that my balance is 0.00 euros!!! I was really shocked, checked my bets and realized that someone placed all of my balance on Lyon-Bordeaux match odds market, backing Lyon!! Speaking about amount of my balance in that time, it was thousands of euros. Four digits number. Now it is all gone. Zero. Not even single cent left. I checked "My security" tab and realized that someone from UK IP address logged in on my account just couple of minute before that bet was placed. Checked that IP (82.37.139.70) and I've got this info: General IP Information Hostname: cpc2-telf2-0-0-cust837.wolv.cable.virginmedia.com ISP: Virgin Media Organization: Virgin Media Proxy: None detected Type: Broadband Assignment: Dynamic IP Blacklist: Geolocation Information Country: United Kingdom gb flag State/Region: Telford and Wrekin City: Telford Latitude: 52.6333 Longitude: -2.5 I immediately contacted Betfair, and here are their response: Dear xxxx, Following an investigation into the activities on your account we can conclude that unauthorised access was gained to your Betfair account. Betfair cannot accept liability for funds lost from your account under these circumstances. Under section 1 of our Account Terms and Conditions of use: "You are solely responsible for the security and confidentiality of your account. In particular, you agree to keep your username, password and/or TAN strictly confidential and you are responsible for any misuse of your password and/or TAN. Provided that we have been correctly supplied with the account information requested, we are entitled to assume that offers and payments are made by you. You should change your password on a regular basis and never disclose it to any third party. You undertake to protect your username and password in the same way that you would in respect of your bank cards and any failure to do so shall be at your sole risk and expense. If another person accesses your account, you are solely responsible for all their actions whether or not their access was authorised by you and you hereby indemnify us and hold us harmless against all costs, claims, expenses and damages howsoever arising in connection with the use of or access to your account by any third party." And that was it, that's how I lost everything at Betfair. Simple as that. I must mention that I use major brands anti-spyware and anti-virus programs and never have had any security issues so far in 3 years using Betfair and in about 10 years betting online. It all happened just two days after their upgrades and fixing those issues afecting Serbian customers. Coincidence or not, you tell me. So, message to all of you is to be careful, change your passwords, do something regarding this. And what about me? Don't ask. I'm speechless, since last night I can only type. Good Luck guys! 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue4578 Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 He was trying to cover about £500, he made substantially more from the 1.02 lay than he stood to get from any other bets. You're probably right, I must admit I wasn't really paying that much attention to what that bloke was saying afterwards. Think people on here had trouble with Betfair, well this is for you, its a cut and paste job. We are all aware about log in issue affecting Serbian customers in past months, when we weren't able to log in to our accounts via main site. Well, just two days after that problem seemed to be solved, much, much worse thing happened to me. They maybe fixed that problem, but obviously with some major leak.................. I don't know if the site is anything to do with you, but it looks like all the links in that post are affiliate links to Betfair from the Punters Lounge betting forum?? That wouldn't be how Betfair react to unauthorised access to your account either. I suppose it depends on the situation, but someone I know very well suffered a similar problem and they were a lot more sympathetic. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fanny paddery Posted February 8, 2011 Author Share Posted February 8, 2011 I don't know if the site is anything to do with you, but it looks like all the links in that post are affiliate links to Betfair from the Punters Lounge betting forum?? That wouldn't be how Betfair react to unauthorised access to your account either. I suppose it depends on the situation, but someone I know very well suffered a similar problem and they were a lot more sympathetic. Yeah a guy on the current Betfair feedback community forum suffered a similar problem and it was dealt with in a much more favourable light by betfair. It did take time to resolve but that person got a full refund of the money lost in his account as betfair will have insurance for these sorts of things. The story does highlight though the importance to have a strong password on your betting accounts. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
punkstar_666 Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 You're probably right, I must admit I wasn't really paying that much attention to what that bloke was saying afterwards. I don't know if the site is anything to do with you, but it looks like all the links in that post are affiliate links to Betfair from the Punters Lounge betting forum?? That wouldn't be how Betfair react to unauthorised access to your account either. I suppose it depends on the situation, but someone I know very well suffered a similar problem and they were a lot more sympathetic. Nothing at all to do with me, was just highlighting it for some people, who had problems with there Betfair account, as FP says, especially with online accounts, you need a strong password, numbers and letters are good for me. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lerwick Lad Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 (edited) punkstar_666[/b]' timestamp='1297164971' post='5035856']you need a strong password, numbers and letters are good for me. To punkstar666 - let me guess what your strong password of numbers and letters is.... Edited February 9, 2011 by Lerwick Lad 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
punkstar_666 Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 To punkstar666 - let me guess what your strong password of numbers and letters is.... Oh i do love a bit of irony. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue4578 Posted February 13, 2011 Share Posted February 13, 2011 Nothing at all to do with me, was just highlighting it for some people, who had problems with there Betfair account, as FP says, especially with online accounts, you need a strong password, numbers and letters are good for me. Absolutely. Someone cleaning out my Betfair account is one of my biggest potential nightmares. I have an master sub account (MSA), which reduces the risk somewhat as you have a master account, and then can create upto 10 sub accounts with different login details. If someone were to get the master password they couldn't actually bet and lose all the money, all they could do is deposit and withdraw using my existing methods, which is good. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lambie's Pigeon Feed Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 Thistle are evens pretty much everywhere on oddschecker for tomorrow, will I get the price in the shops as well or will it be worse? Thinking of sticking a fair wee sum on it but would rather use cash in shop. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue4578 Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 (edited) Anyone know what price the draw was matched at on Betfair on the Gooners game? I've had a look at the data file, and the highest price matched was 400 (for £3.38). There wasn't a great deal matched above 60/65, although plenty was matched on Arsenal @ 1.01. I've attached a little snippet from the data file. Column headers are: odds, number of bets, volume matched, last time taken. It really doesn't matter now, but I thought I'd post it up just in case anyone was really curious and couldn't be bothered to check! Edited February 16, 2011 by blue4578 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mcgregor Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 I have used historic data over a few leagues and previous seasons and have managed to consistently find a way of making a profit. However I have used Bet365 prices which I have used from footballdata. My aim is to to start laying every game on betfair. My concern is the differance in prices between bookmaker and exchange. For example if I can show say a 100 point profit over time by laying at b365 prices would i still be making a profit on betfair or would the better prices they offer seriously reduce the profit to make it not worth while? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue4578 Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Bet365 prices will be 15-25% lower than Betfair prices on average, so if you're making a profit in theory by "laying" Bet365 prices, unless that profit is very significant, it's unlikely you'll be able to repeat it using Betfair. If you're going to lay on Betfair, you should get your prices in as early as possible as then people can take a silly prices before the market matures. Ideally you should open your own bookmakers as then you can offer rubbish prices like Bet365 and people will take them. Sadly Betfair requires you to offer competitive prices usually or else your bets will go unmatched. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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