Latest Polls and Latest Odds

[Burma]

There is definitely a lot to use and abuse for both sides of the debate there, as Wee Bully points out the much trumpeted all time low 23% figure is now at 29%, so a six point jump there. The No side will trumpet the absolute unsailability of that headline figure. It's a bit of a contradiciton, but while that 23-29% figure exists, so does one question that reckons that all decisions should be made by the Scottish parliament has dropped by 4% since last year, which doesn't seem self consistent.

My two big complaints with Curtice are as always about timing. You simply can't treat a poll of 1,500 folk over six months as one sample. I'm not the expert here, Curtice is - but in my job I work with statistics a fair bit in terms of designing semiconductor devices for quality and reliability. I know that if I tried to look at lifetime testing of parts in six subsamples over a period of six months, and then presented the data as one sample with the end points normalised to the last batch, I'd be laughed out of the building. Curtice's methodology does not allow for folk changing their minds during his sample period, he has no way of knowing that the folk he asked in June, still hold the same opinion in October. It also means that each sub-sample taken on it's own, if it can be broken down that way, would be very small and prone to large errors.

Secondly, the press are reporting this as being 'new' i.e. current - when in fact the last samples of data were picked up in Ocotber 2013: Three months ago. Coincidentally, one month before the publishing of the white paper. Whatever it's actual impact, there is no doubt that there is now a lot more information available from both sides, and a lot of ink spilled since Curtice finished his data collection, which surely pours some doubt on the questions he asked regading how informed voters felt.

Yes I thought Curtice was in full Unionist mode last night. He made great play of the fact that the White Paper hadnt had the desired effect when he knew full well his data was collected prior to its launch.

Now why would he make such claims?

[H_B]

Yes I thought Curtice was in full Unionist mode last night. He made great play of the fact that the White Paper hadnt had the desired effect when he knew full well his data was collected prior to its launch.

Now why would he make such claims?

Can you provide any quotes from Curtice that support this view?

[HardyBamboo]

Curtice was on Radio Scotland this morning.

It's yet another poll where Yes are making no progress. Support for Independence is just so static. Must be hugely alarming for the Yes campaign - which is going absolutely nowhere.

This poll isn't up to date, the data was collected between June & October of last year, before the White Paper, WG debt statements & various other "genie out of the bottle" items. I am not saying it is entirely irrelevant but there has been a fair bit of water under the bridge since then.

[H_B]

This poll isn't up to date, the data was collected between June & October of last year, before the White Paper, WG debt statements & various other "genie out of the bottle" items. I am not saying it is entirely irrelevant but there has been a fair bit of water under the bridge since then.

Yes, I know. I heard an interview with Curtice on RS this morning and didn't hear him mention the White Paper.

I'm curious about the verbatim quote Burma is relying upon. Will be interested to read it.

[Burma]

Yes, I know. I heard an interview with Curtice on RS this morning and didn't hear him mention the White Paper.

I'm curious about the verbatim quote Burma is relying upon. Will be interested to read it.

Verbatim from his blog last night:

" To have a prospect of being a game changer, at least so far as the balance of public opinion is concerned, the independence White Paper needed to have hit two buttons.

First it had to convince voters that they and their country would be economically and financially better off under independence. The Scottish Social Attitudes survey has found that as many as 65% might be willing to vote for independence if they thought they might be £500 a year better off. However, only last week a Panelbase poll reported that just 15% actually reckon that is what would happen.

Second, the White Paper needed to reduce the air of uncertainty, even fear, that currently surrounds the independence project. The last Scottish Social Attitudes survey reported that 58% are unsure what independence might bring, while almost exactly the same proportion, 59%, said they felt worried about the prospect. Unsurprisingly, voters who feel that way are less likely to back the idea of leaving the UK."

As I indicated. Making great play of the white paper and directly linking it to the attitudes survey.

Any comment?

Edited January 22, 2014 by Burma

[Confidemus]

Verbatim from his blog last night:

" To have a prospect of being a game changer, at least so far as the balance of public opinion is concerned, the independence White Paper needed to have hit two buttons.

First it had to convince voters that they and their country would be economically and financially better off under independence. The Scottish Social Attitudes survey has found that as many as 65% might be willing to vote for independence if they thought they might be £500 a year better off. However, only last week a Panelbase poll reported that just 15% actually reckon that is what would happen.

Second, the White Paper needed to reduce the air of uncertainty, even fear, that currently surrounds the independence project. The last Scottish Social Attitudes survey reported that 58% are unsure what independence might bring, while almost exactly the same proportion, 59%, said they felt worried about the prospect. Unsurprisingly, voters who feel that way are less likely to back the idea of leaving the UK."

As I indicated. Making great play of the white paper and directly linking it to the attitudes survey.

Any comment?

HB seems to have went rather quiet now. Interesting.

Bitter together indeed.

[Burma]

HB seems to have went rather quiet now. Interesting.

Bitter together indeed.

He'll be furiously googling away in order to accuse people of "lies" before prattling on about how Scotland cant actually have an attitude because it doesnt actually exist therefore an attitudes survey cant actually be real, and we are all actually non-existent people who are plugged into the matrix because international law wont recognise us, or deluded pish along those lines.

Then his bff (and possible alter-ego) will show up and start spouting about how these surveys cant be valid because he didnt approve them and he is the only one who understands them and look at how long his posts are, while reynard cracks one off. And then adlib will.announce his intention to vote yes. Because hes a capitalist Tory and he believes the SNP are all capitalist right wing Tories.....yeah right.

Edited January 22, 2014 by Burma

[Jamaldo]

Telt

[H_B]

Verbatim from his blog last night:

" To have a prospect of being a game changer, at least so far as the balance of public opinion is concerned, the independence White Paper needed to have hit two buttons.

First it had to convince voters that they and their country would be economically and financially better off under independence. The Scottish Social Attitudes survey has found that as many as 65% might be willing to vote for independence if they thought they might be £500 a year better off. However, only last week a Panelbase poll reported that just 15% actually reckon that is what would happen.

Second, the White Paper needed to reduce the air of uncertainty, even fear, that currently surrounds the independence project. The last Scottish Social Attitudes survey reported that 58% are unsure what independence might bring, while almost exactly the same proportion, 59%, said they felt worried about the prospect. Unsurprisingly, voters who feel that way are less likely to back the idea of leaving the UK."

As I indicated. Making great play of the white paper and directly linking it to the attitudes survey.

Any comment?

In what way does that "directly link" the White Paper to the survey? As I expected, it did not.

He actually links the Panelbase findings to the first assertion. "However, only last week a Panelbase poll reported that just 15% actually reckon that is what would happen."

[H_B]

He'll be furiously googling away in order to accuse people of "lies" before prattling on about how Scotland cant actually have an attitude because it doesnt actually exist therefore an attitudes survey cant actually be real, and we are all actually non-existent people who are plugged into the matrix because international law wont recognise us, or deluded pish along those lines.

Then his bff (and possible alter-ego) will show up and start spouting about how these surveys cant be valid because he didnt approve them and he is the only one who understands them and look at how long his posts are, while reynard cracks one off. And then adlib will.announce his intention to vote yes. Because hes a capitalist Tory and he believes the SNP are all capitalist right wing Tories.....yeah right.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

rattled

[Reynard]

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

rattled

He's very upset indeed.

But he has safety in numbers here and can return to the heaving bosom of the NCC to be stroked back to more stable state ready to throw more mighty barbs at his sworn enemies.

[H_B]

He's very upset indeed.

But he has safety in numbers here and can return to the heaving bosom of the NCC to be stroked back to more stable state ready to throw more mighty barbs at his sworn enemies.

Seems to be the way it goes.

Hard to see how he can come back from this morning's astonishing claim that Scotland runs at a surplus, but I suppose he survived the utter omnishambles of being owned on everything legal, so he has bouncebackability of sorts.

[Reynard]

Seems to be the way it goes.

Hard to see how he can come back from this morning's astonishing claim that Scotland runs at a surplus, but I suppose he survived the utter omnishambles of being owned on everything legal, so he has bouncebackability of sorts.

Should I be stalking him around the forum claiming his credibility is fucked and he can't do "figures" 'n that?

If I was remotely interested in anything he had to say then I might. But I simply can't be bothered. You can if you like?

[H_B]

Should I be stalking him around the forum claiming his credibility is fucked and he can't do "figures" 'n that?

If I was remotely interested in anything he had to say then I might. But I simply can't be bothered. You can if you like?

Nah. One of the diet Wotsits muncher types will be along shortly to claim it's actually a victory. Of some sort.

[Confidemus]

Fucking hell H B and Reynard, get a room...

[Burma]

Looks like my last post on this thread got these two britnats seriously upset.....and somewhat enamoured with each other.

It would appear their complete lack of credibility is something of an aphrodisiac, AdLib will be jealous.

Edited January 22, 2014 by Burma

[Tom Hanks]

Looks like my last post on this thread got these two britnats seriously upset.....and somewhat enamoured with each other.

It would appear their complete lack of credibility is something of an aphrodisiac, AdLib will be jealous.

Arguably the most cringeworthy thing about the pair of them is how they throw terms like "nat" etc around as if they're going out of fashion, despite the fact that they are both raving British nationalists who want the UK withdrawn from the European Union.

You couldn't make it up really.

[ayrmad]

Don't think the guys n gals knocking on doors will need any pep talks for a wee while.

http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/scottish-independence-within-snp-s-grasp-poll-1-3281655

ALEX Salmond is within reach of victory in the independence referendum, according to an exclusive poll showing that support for the cause has grown dramatically by five percentage points over the last four months.

The largest swing towards a Yes vote recorded so far in the campaign is revealed today in an ICM survey for Scotland on Sunday, which has found that support for independence has grown from 32 per cent to 37 per cent since September.

The surge in those backing Yes was accompanied by a corresponding drop in No support by five percentage points from 49 per cent in September to 44 per cent currently.

The poll also found that when the 19 per cent who said they didn’t know how they would vote were excluded, support for Yes is at 46 per cent compared with 54 per cent who said they would vote No.

There was more good news for Yes Scotland, when the “don’t knows” were pressed further on their views on independence. When they disclosed how they were “most likely” to vote, the results were factored into the equation and the pollsters found that support for independence stood at 47 per cent compared with 53 per cent in favour of No.

The figures represent the largest backing for Yes to be recorded in an independently-commissioned survey and are the first clear sign that support for breaking up the UK is growing after months of stagnating polls.

Were the progress recorded over the last four months to be replicated in the eight months remaining until the September 18 referendum, the first minister could succeed in his dream of creating an independent Scotland.

The poll of more than 1,000 over-16s was conducted by ICM for Scotland on Sunday between Tuesday and Friday.

Last night, the Yes campaign suggested that the launch of the Scottish Government’s white paper offering a blueprint for independence in November has resulted in a game-changing bounce for ­independence.

Blair Jenkins, chief executive of Yes Scotland, said: “A potential Yes vote of 47 per cent at this stage is an excellent place to be with eight months to go. It demonstrates very clearly that we are getting our message across and that momentum is very much on our side.

“The poll represents a very significant swing to Yes and shows that we need just over a 3 per cent swing to take the lead. It is particularly encouraging that there is a five-point increase in support from women and a four-point rise in the number of people who believe independence will be good for the economy is also a welcome shift in our favour.

“We know that the more people learn about the benefits of independence the more likely they are to vote Yes.

“People are now also carefully weighing up the consequences and costs of a No vote and, as a result, support for Yes increases. The referendum is about two choices. One is sticking with a Westminster system that isn’t working for Scotland. The other is a unique opportunity to make decisions that match our own needs and priorities, to better use our vast wealth and resources for the benefit of all people in Scotland and to build a fairer country of which we can all be proud.”

A spokesman for Better Together, the pro-Union campaign, said: “Despite Alex Salmond spending millions of pounds of taxpayers’ money, the majority of people in Scotland don’t want to trade the strength and security of the UK for the risk and uncertainty of independence. We will campaign tirelessly between now and September to convince those who have yet to make up their mind that we are stronger and better together. This poll is a message that there can be no complacency from those who support Scotland remaining in the UK.”

Plans to increase childcare provision for working mothers were at the heart of the white paper, a move that was seen as a bid to make independence more attractive to women.

The SNP’s failure to win over women has long been seen as an Achilles’ heel of the party, yet today’s poll shows that female support has grown significantly. The percentage of women prepared to vote Yes has grown from 28 per cent in September to 33 per cent.

The economy also emerged as a key issue and is another area in which Yes Scotland makes progress.

In September, 31 per cent of those polled by ICM thought that independence would benefit the economy. Today that figure has increased to 35 per cent.

The percentage of people who felt that independence would be bad for the economy has also decreased, from 48 per cent to 42 per cent.

The SNP has argued that independence would offer the chance to create a more equal society in Scotland.

According to the poll, the proportion of people who believe that there would be less inequality in an independent Scotland has increased from 27 per cent to 31 per cent.

Those who believed that there would be more inequality rose slightly from 20 per cent to 21 per cent. Those who thought independence would make no difference to inequality fell from 34 per cent to 31 per cent.

Better Together has made much of the uncertainty over pensions that it claims would result from the dismantling of the UK. But the poll revealed that the percentage of people who believe that they would have a higher pension in an independent Scotland has increased from 16 per cent to 20 per cent.

A recurring criticism of the Better Together campaign has been that it is failing to set out a positive vision of what would happen to Scotland in the event of a No vote.

Labour and the Conservatives have established commissions to look at whether the Scottish Parliament should be given more powers within the UK. Both parties are due to publish their findings in the spring.

The poll found that the percentage of those who were resisting constitutional change remained constant on 28 per cent. Whereas those who believed Holyrood should become responsible for taxation and welfare increased from 59 per cent to 64 per cent.

John Curtice: Best news on voting intentions the Yes campaign has ever had

TODAY’S ICM poll is the best polling news the Yes side has had yet in the referendum campaign.

Once the Don’t Knows are excluded, 46 per cent think they will vote Yes in September; 54 per cent No.

This is the highest Yes tally in any independently commissioned poll so far. It represents a six-point swing to Yes since last September, the biggest yet in a campaign in which the polls have been remarkably stable. True, there is one word of caution. The swing is entirely confined to those aged 44 and under. All pollsters, including ICM, find it more difficult to get younger voters to answer their questions. Consequently, their estimates of how such voters will behave are more likely to change randomly from one poll to the next.

Even so, there are signs the swing is underpinned by something real. And in line with the message from the Scottish Social Attitudes survey last week, what emerges is that the answer to “What will determine the eventual outcome in September?” is simply: “It’s the economy, stupid.”

In September only 31 per cent thought independence would be good for the economy, while 48 per cent reckoned it would be bad. Now 35 per cent reckon independence would be beneficial while 42 per cent feel it would be deleterious. That represents a five-point swing towards a more optimistic view.

Meanwhile, people’s perceptions are clearly fundamental to their decision whether to vote Yes or No.

No less than 88 per cent of those who think the economy would be better under independence expect to vote Yes, while 87 per cent of those who reckon it would be worse belong to the No camp.

None of the other perceptions tracked by ICM has either shifted as much or obviously matters so much.

True, the proportion who think there would be less inequality in an independent Scotland – one of the Yes side’s key claims – has increased by four points from 27 per cent to 31 per cent. But the proportion who believe it would be more unequal has edged up a point too, to 21 per cent. That means on this issue the swing is just 1.5 per cent.

At the same time, only 63 per cent of those who believe there would be less inequality in an independent Scotland think they will vote Yes, while 63 per cent of those who feel there would be more inequality are inclined to vote No. Both figures are lower than the equivalent ones for the economy.

Meanwhile, the proportion who think pensions would be higher under independence is up four points from 16 per cent to 20 per cent. The proportion who believe they would be lower is down two points to 23 per cent – a swing of three points.

But having a rosy view of the prospects for pensions is an even less powerful recruiting sergeant for the Yes side. Only 58 per cent of those who reckon pensions would be higher think they will vote Yes – though 75 per cent of those who think they would be lower anticipate voting No.

The lesson for the Yes side is clear. Their hopes of winning the referendum rest on their ability to win the economic debate. They may now be a little closer to doing so.

• John Curtice is Professor of Politics, Strathclyde University

Edited January 26, 2014 by ayrmad

[Davi3j]

I suspect our resident Britnats will be in full scale deflect mode today.

[caleyjaggi]

I suspect our resident Britnats will be in full scale deflect mode today.

Aren't they always these days Tragic.

But but but Panelbase, er, outlier, Salmonds fat, your going to lose, no shift here, Yes static, Sturgeon lied, GSTQ, free Shetland!