SodjesSixteenIncher Posted August 29, 2014 Share Posted August 29, 2014 The BT lead from when? Survation had Yes at this level in June. That's like being 10 metres behind in a race with 300 to go, dropping back 20 metres with 200 to go, then reducing it to 10 with 100 to go and saying "Wow, look at the momentummmmm" Is this a hypothetical two or three horse race though? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ludo*1 Posted August 29, 2014 Share Posted August 29, 2014 H_B, on 29 Aug 2014 - 09:44, said: The Survation poll must be really disappointing for Yes. They need something big to happen in the others, as only being where they were in June is desperately bad news after the success of the debate on Monday. The only time either side needs something big to happen is on the 18th. I'm disregarding all polls because generally there is a 'flavour' for one side or the other. The bookies odds narrowing quite considerably gives me more confidence than any shortening of the polls. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confidemus Posted August 29, 2014 Share Posted August 29, 2014 The Survation poll must be really disappointing for Yes. They need something big to happen in the others, as only being where they were in June is desperately bad news after the success of the debate on Monday. No. Why can't you answer the question? The BT lead from when? Survation had Yes at this level in June. That's like being 10 metres behind in a race with 300 to go, dropping back 20 metres with 200 to go, then reducing it to 10 with 100 to go and saying "Wow, look at the momentummmmm" ^^^ uber-rattled 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted August 29, 2014 Share Posted August 29, 2014 The bookies odds narrowing quite considerably gives me more confidence than any shortening of the polls. Yep, the odds will definitely be much closer to the truth than the polls. What are the best odds on No just now? I can't get oddschecker at work. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted August 29, 2014 Share Posted August 29, 2014 The only time either side needs something big to happen is on the 18th. Well, not really. The polls before the event will indicate the result. As was shown in the Scottish election 2011 and the General Election 2010. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confidemus Posted August 29, 2014 Share Posted August 29, 2014 What were the polls in the 2011 election showing at this stage prior to the vote, H_B? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted August 29, 2014 Share Posted August 29, 2014 What were the polls in the 2011 election showing at this stage prior to the vote, H_B? Glad you asked. On the 21st April, both You GOv and IPSOS MORI had the SNP on 45%. Final result? SNP won 45.39% of the vote. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confidemus Posted August 29, 2014 Share Posted August 29, 2014 Glad you asked. On the 21st April, both You GOv and IPSOS MORI had the SNP on 45%. Final result? SNP won 45.39% of the vote. Aw you got a greenie from Lex. Bless. A few adendums are required, I feel. Yougov had the SNP on 42% on 4th May, the day before the vote and the same for Yougov/ Scotland on Sunday on 29 April. Almost 4% out. The latter poll also had Labour at 34%. They finished on 31.69%. The regional polls were even more skew-whiffed. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
banana Posted August 29, 2014 Share Posted August 29, 2014 Amazing how much people of all leanings believe and disregard polls when it suits them. Especially those who admit they've no idea how professional polls are conducted. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted August 29, 2014 Share Posted August 29, 2014 Amazing how much people of all leanings believe and disregard polls when it suits them. Especially those who admit they've no idea how professional polls are conducted. My favourite is "how do they know when they are only asking like 0.0001% of the population? Surely if you asked adifferent 1,000 people you'd get a completely different result???" 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayrmad Posted August 29, 2014 Share Posted August 29, 2014 Aw you got a greenie from Lex. Bless. A few adendums are required, I feel. Yougov had the SNP on 42% on 4th May, the day before the vote and the same for Yougov/ Scotland on Sunday on 29 April. Almost 4% out. The latter poll also had Labour at 34%. They finished on 31.69%. The regional polls were even more skew-whiffed. Yougov showed Labour going from 41 to 32 and SNP going from 38 to 45 between March and April, an 8% swing in a month. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confidemus Posted August 29, 2014 Share Posted August 29, 2014 My favourite is "how do they know when they are only asking like 0.0001% of the population? Surely if you asked adifferent 1,000 people you'd get a completely different result???" That's my favourite as well. What's your favourite colour, H_B? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted August 29, 2014 Share Posted August 29, 2014 (edited) That's my favourite as well. What's your favourite colour, H_B? Blue I don't like Angel Delight though. Edited August 29, 2014 by H_B 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICTChris Posted August 29, 2014 Share Posted August 29, 2014 (edited) Obviously it's a good poll for Yes but it'll be interesting to see how it develops further. Given that it mirrored what happened after the first debate when it was widely taken that Alistair Darling did well it could be that undecided voters are swapping sides depending on how the debate shifts. Here are the tables, if they haven't already been posted http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/Scottish-DM-2nd-Debate-Tables.pdf ETA - Interestingly when weighted for respondents most likely to vote the No vote rises more than the Yes vote - perhaps hinting back to the Old Voters discussion on here earlier this month. Edited August 29, 2014 by ICTChris 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Casual Bystander Posted August 29, 2014 Share Posted August 29, 2014 You have to love the nodrones, when the gap was as high as 14% (although that was never really the case) then apparently it is bad for the Yes camp. Then when the gap closed down to 10% it was bad for the Yes camp. Now as the gap closes and with the momentum with the Yes camp it's still bad for them. I presume that if the polls show Yes in the lead and when a Yes vote is delivered on the 18th it will still be bad for the Yes camp. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeeTillEhDeh Posted August 29, 2014 Share Posted August 29, 2014 The 10% who won't tell pollsters which way they are voting is interesting. In my experience most Yes voters tend be very forthcoming about their voting intentions in company - No voters a lot more reticent - is it the same with polling? If (and I do say if) that is the case then we are back to the 1980s when we had a lot of reticient voters who backed Thatcher. They would vote for her but would not in a million years let anyone know they had. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayrmad Posted August 29, 2014 Share Posted August 29, 2014 The 10% who won't tell pollsters which way they are voting is interesting. In my experience most Yes voters tend be very forthcoming about their voting intentions in company - No voters a lot more reticent - is it the same with polling? If (and I do say if) that is the case then we are back to the 1980s when we had a lot of reticient voters who backed Thatcher. They would vote for her but would not in a million years let anyone know they had. I find the 800000 new voters more interesting if I'm being honest. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confidemus Posted August 29, 2014 Share Posted August 29, 2014 The 10% who won't tell pollsters which way they are voting is interesting. In my experience most Yes voters tend be very forthcoming about their voting intentions in company - No voters a lot more reticent - is it the same with polling? If (and I do say if) that is the case then we are back to the 1980s when we had a lot of reticient voters who backed Thatcher. They would vote for her but would not in a million years let anyone know they had. I am surprised that a No leaning fence sitter such as yourself takes this view. Would it surprise you that it is my belief that every man jack of that 10% will vote Yes? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bairn Posted August 29, 2014 Share Posted August 29, 2014 Proof of this, Cuntidimus? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lex Posted August 29, 2014 Author Share Posted August 29, 2014 I am surprised that a No leaning fence sitter such as yourself takes this view. Would it surprise you that it is my belief that every man jack of that 10% will vote Yes? Wait a minute... You're saying EVERY SINGLE undecided voter will vote yes? Even for you Confi, that's a topper. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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