Latest Polls and Latest Odds

[Mr Heliums]

Bearing in mind that Yes seems to have a much larger online presence than the No campaign, would it not follow that more Yes voters are likely to have signed up to answer polls than No voters? I'm not really sure how these things work - do they only ask people who registered with them before the campaign began?

I believe they balance it according to how respondents voted in previous elections.

[pandarilla]

Bearing in mind that Yes seems to have a much larger online presence than the No campaign, would it not follow that more Yes voters are likely to have signed up to answer polls than No voters? I'm not really sure how these things work - do they only ask people who registered with them before the campaign began?

No - they try and work out an accurate sample of the population at large. Its complicated shit.

[SodjesSixteenIncher]

So am I following this correctly in expecting another poll results tomorrow?

[Mr Heliums]

Yes, think there's another YouGov for the Sunday Times.

[Guest]

If polls aren't to be trusted, would yes taking a lead before the 18th actually be a good thing?

I've always thought no voters are more likely to have a slight air of complacency about them. Them going behind for the first time ever could mobilise everyone with no intentions into action right on time for the vote.

Edited September 6, 2014 by Guest

[pandarilla]

If polls aren't to be trusted, would yes taking a lead before the 18th actually be a good thing?

I've always thought no voters are more likely to have a slight air of complacence about them. Them going behind for the first time ever could mobilise everyone with no intentions into action right on time for the vote.

Yeah but the sense of looking like favourites is also a positive factor in many cases. A lot of folk will be swayed in the last few days if they think voting Yes is actually the most likely outcome. It never fails to surprise me how shallow some folk are - but hey ho.

I'd say a roughly level poll would be ideal at the moment - and then maybe taking the lead next weekend.

[GorgieRoad]

If polls aren't to be trusted, would yes taking a lead before the 18th actually be a good thing?

I've always thought no voters are more likely to have a slight air of complacence about them. Them going behind for the first time ever could mobilise everyone with no intentions into action right on time for the vote.

Let's hope those with no intentions of voting forgot to register before the deadline.

[pandarilla]

Let's hope those with no intentions of voting forgot to register before the deadline.

Has it not passed already?

[GorgieRoad]

Has it not passed already?

Yep, 2nd of September was the deadline.

[CGR]

Murdoch: London Times will shock Britain and more with reliable new poll on Scottish independence. If right on 18 th vote everything up for grabs

https://twitter.com/rupertmurdoch/status/508271651235299328

[ICTChris]

Bearing in mind that Yes seems to have a much larger online presence than the No campaign, would it not follow that more Yes voters are likely to have signed up to answer polls than No voters? I'm not really sure how these things work - do they only ask people who registered with them before the campaign began?

I think if there was an influx, or even a gradual sign-up of Yes voters, then these companies would pick it up.

I think that the potential issues with the polls are those of weighting. How will pollsters cope with the increased turnout? Some have suggested that this will favour the Yes campaign but there's also been findings that show that those who didn't vote in the 2011 Scottish elections are more likely to vote No than Yes. Voting SNP is probably the most reliable indicator of voting Yes and the SNP do significantly better in the Scottish Parliamentary elections, where is generally a lower turnout. How much of that is due to tactical voting, vote-lending etc? I don't know.

How accurately this can be factored into the polling will determine how well they predict the final result, it's a really interesting challenge for the polling companies. I do find this stuff fascinating and yes, I'm spending my Saturday afternoon writing and thinking about it. In an independent Scotland will I get any mates?

[pandarilla]

I think if there was an influx, or even a gradual sign-up of Yes voters, then these companies would pick it up.

I think that the potential issues with the polls are those of weighting. How will pollsters cope with the increased turnout? Some have suggested that this will favour the Yes campaign but there's also been findings that show that those who didn't vote in the 2011 Scottish elections are more likely to vote No than Yes. Voting SNP is probably the most reliable indicator of voting Yes and the SNP do significantly better in the Scottish Parliamentary elections, where is generally a lower turnout. How much of that is due to tactical voting, vote-lending etc? I don't know.

How accurately this can be factored into the polling will determine how well they predict the final result, it's a really interesting challenge for the polling companies. I do find this stuff fascinating and yes, I'm spending my Saturday afternoon writing and thinking about it. In an independent Scotland will I get any mates?

What's the whizz kid guy from the States saying about it all (I can't remember his name)?

I know he predicted a couple of years back that there was zero chance of a Yes victory. Has he said any more on the topic?

[SodjesSixteenIncher]

Aye if I could choose, Yes would poll a very slight lead as close to polling day as possible.

Potential complacency and people just voting with what they think will happen are both factors in any vote but I think the latter is more significant here. In any case, the actual act of voting for Independence is in itself something people who support it wouldn't miss the chance to do, even if Yes was sitting on 10% support. I don't think complacency will be much of an issue on the Yes side.

Edited September 6, 2014 by SodjesSixteenIncher

[ayrmad]

I'm more worried about jiggerypokery than any poll(always have been, I trust nobody), I see BT canvassers are all using the narrative of speaking to lots of postal voters who've voted NO.

Edited September 6, 2014 by ayrmad

[Casual Bystander]

I said when the last YG poll came out that I expected a drop in the next polls (feel free to go check my posts if you think I am "at it"). I am also well on the record as saying that I don't trust the polls no matter which side they are backing.

[ICTChris]

Rupert Murdoch @rupertmurdoch · 19s

Scottish poll reflects world-wide disillusion with political leaders and old establishments leaving openings for libertarians and far left.

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Rupert Murdoch @rupertmurdoch · 18m

Scottish independence means huge black eye for whole political establishment, especially Cameron and Milliband.

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Rupert Murdoch @rupertmurdoch · 19m

London Times will shock Britain and more with reliable new poll on Scottish independence. If right on 18 th vote everything up for grabs

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Anyone fancy forming a Scottish Libertarian Party?

[Casual Bystander]

Murdoch is a c**t who weilds way too much power in the world of politics.

[Mr Heliums]

Murdoch: London Times will shock Britain and more with reliable new poll on Scottish independence. If right on 18 th vote everything up for grabs

https://twitter.com/rupertmurdoch/status/508271651235299328

That's interesting - Kenny Farquharson of the Scotsman this morning:

There's been some serious mismanagement of expectations by the Yes camp this week, if what I'm hearing is true. #indyref

Which I took to indicate that there would be a drop in support (though not sure how Yes has been managing expectations either way, other than to suggest momentum is with Yes, but it's still the underdog).

[HaikuHibee]

Murdoch is a c**t who weilds way too much power in the world of politics.

He hates elites though. If the Sun come out for yes, I would respect him.

[HaikuHibee]

That's interesting - Kenny Farquharson of the Scotsman this morning:

There's been some serious mismanagement of expectations by the Yes camp this week, if what I'm hearing is true. #indyref

Which I took to indicate that there would be a drop in support (though not sure how Yes has been managing expectations either way, other than to suggest momentum is with Yes, but it's still the underdog).

There may be three polls. Two from Yes, one from YouGov. So clench for two weeks.