Latest Polls and Latest Odds

[xbl]

It will be somewhere in the 35 - 65 plus or minus a few percent either way. Its been fairly obvious right from the start that the yes camp were flogging a dead horse. An easy one to predict and once again I'll be proven to be correct.

Meanwhile, how about those pension figures? Impressive lying from the worst political pundit on here.

[thepundit]

Can't be encouraging for the Yes campaign that after the SNP prospectus has been rolled out it has failed to generate any additional support for their cause.

[Reynard]

Can't be encouraging for the Yes campaign that after the SNP prospectus has been rolled out it has failed to generate any additional support for their cause.

And they really built it up beforehand only to let off the dampest squib ever.

But they will cling to the notion of private polling and word on the street of course as their political masters need useful idiots to chap doors and deliver leaflets for them.

[xbl]

And they really built it up beforehand only to let off the dampest squib ever.

But they will cling to the notion of private polling and word on the street of course as their political masters need useful idiots to chap doors and deliver leaflets for them.

Meanwhile, how about those pension figures? When you have proved that you are capable of engaging with a point and admitting when you get something wrong, then we might take you seriously.

[Kejan]

Not a chance will it be that far apart. Even ifvthe referendum was tomorrow, it would be much closer than that. Why so negative?

Next week I might think the opposite, my mood seems to go up and down just from speaking to certain voters. I just fear that too many folk will vote no out of fear at the unknown.

[ayrmad]

Next week I might think the opposite, my mood seems to go up and down just from speaking to certain voters. I just fear that too many folk will vote no out of fear at the unknown.

That's actually the worst thing about this referendum, the ignorant will most probably carry the vote, the most positive thing for YES is that they are the only side capable of getting a late snowball effect, at the moment they're not coming close to pressing the correct buttons though, 1 positive of the helicopter crash in a political sense is that the debate might take a more grown up and respectful course now.

Edited December 1, 2013 by ayrmad

[xbl]

Next week I might think the opposite, my mood seems to go up and down just from speaking to certain voters. I just fear that too many folk will vote no out of fear at the unknown.

I linked this on another thread, but its worth a read:

http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/alex-massie/2013/11/scottish-independence-is-a-little-more-likely-today-than-it-was-yesterday/

We're moving on nicely, and the best barometers are our Unionists on here. They gave up engaging in any discussion months ago (believe it or not, once upon a time, Reynard, Ad Lib, and HB would actually make serious points with some give and take), and have nothing left but sirens of fear. Notice they way they have to pretend that so much stuff simply never happened. They can see the way the wind has been blowing for months now, and they are scared.

[thepundit]

And they really built it up beforehand only to let off the dampest squib ever.

I predicted it wasn't going to match up to the hype. As Salmond answered/dodged every question for weeks with "the answers will be in the white paper" it was almost inevitable it would be a disappointment because most of us know an independent Scotland is nothing more than a leap of faith. The mainstream media really tore it apart also and ironically it was probably No's strongest week since the campaign began.

[thepundit]

We're moving on nicely, and the best barometers are our Unionists on here. They gave up engaging in any discussion months ago (believe it or not, once upon a time, Reynard, Ad Lib, and HB would actually make serious points with some give and take), and have nothing left but sirens of fear. Notice they way they have to pretend that so much stuff simply never happened. They can see the way the wind has been blowing for months now, and they are scared.

Well, if Unionists have nothing left to argue why is the Yes campaign failing and not at the "40% by December" you predicted it would be?

[xbl]

That's actually the worst thing about this referendum, the ignorant will most probably carry the vote, the most positive thing for YES is that they are the only side capable of getting a late snowball effect, at the moment they're not coming close to pressing the correct buttons though, 1 positive of the helicopter crash in a political sense is that the debate might take a more grown up and respectful course now.

Based on what exactly? Why would this happen just because of a helicopter crash?

And remember, many people do not even bother to begin to engage with the issues until a couple months to go. Most referendums see a big last minute swing because of this. So that is one factor, and also, as I've been saying for about five years now, that No vote is soft. Many "No voters" are not voters at all, because they won't bother on the day. I remember saying last year that I figured that both sides had a 30% core vote that would vote no matter what, and then the 40% were either undecided or soft No.

Well since then, I would say that over the last year, the core Yes has increased slightly, whereas the No vote is more or less unchanged. Its the soft no that is starting to melt away. As even HB said once, there is no positive case for the Union. When people engage with the issues, they tend to vote yes.

[xbl]

Well, if Unionists have nothing left to argue why is the Yes campaign failing and not at the "40% by December" you predicted it would be?

Hark at thepundit asking questions when his sole contribution to this thread is to dodge, dive, duck, and deflect.

But because I'm better than you, to answer your question, we did have polling showing over 40%, so target achieved.

[Quentin Taranbino]

It's strange because on here as we know the majority of people are in the yes camp. However whenever I have spoke to people in the 'real world' it's been about 70% in favour of no.

I do support the case for independence and appreciate that proper campaigning has yet to start however if a vote was done tomorrow then it wouldn't be close. Unionists would win by 60-70% I reckon.

This forum is very one sided and unrepresentative

[1320Lichtie]

Wha geez. If the NO camp are so positive that's fine no bother at all, might be good they end up complacent, FWIW more and more people I know are turning to a YES. I hope it's close, I don't expect a YES vote so if it's NO I won't be too surprised, will be funny coming back on this thread though after some of the shouts from the handful of NO voters on this forum...

[ayrmad]

Based on what exactly? Why would this happen just because of a helicopter crash?

And remember, many people do not even bother to begin to engage with the issues until a couple months to go. Most referendums see a big last minute swing because of this. So that is one factor, and also, as I've been saying for about five years now, that No vote is soft. Many "No voters" are not voters at all, because they won't bother on the day. I remember saying last year that I figured that both sides had a 30% core vote that would vote no matter what, and then the 40% were either undecided or soft No.

Well since then, I would say that over the last year, the core Yes has increased slightly, whereas the No vote is more or less unchanged. Its the soft no that is starting to melt away. As even HB said once, there is no positive case for the Union. When people engage with the issues, they tend to vote yes.

The might is the important 1 in my line, I never heard 1 member of the public involved mentioning Britain in their pride, I just think your Carmichaels' etc might start actually debating issues rather than his shameful effort the other night, we witnessed gilimpses of it on QT from them all,

I put up the same point about core votes a year or so ago when I was still in the NO camp, 25% YES, 30 OR 35 % NO(can't quite remember my % for NO), it has moved towards YES but not anything like what's required yet, perhaps 2 or 3 %.

Swampy might remember my %'s as I think he broadly agreed with them at the time.

The crash won't change the debate on here but I do believe it might change it for the politicians, it's their debate that counts.

Edited December 1, 2013 by ayrmad

[1320Lichtie]

It's strange because on here as we know the majority of people are in the yes camp. However whenever I have spoke to people in the 'real world' it's been about 70% in favour of no.

I do support the case for independence and appreciate that proper campaigning has yet to start however if a vote was done tomorrow then it wouldn't be close. Unionists would win by 60-70% I reckon.

This forum is very one sided and unrepresentative

Very 50/50 in my experience, this along with comments on FB pages like STV and BBC Scotland seem to suggest its close. The comments on the FB pages seem to be in favour of YES IMO. Like I say only one vote matters and we will find it much closer in the Summer I reckon. Hope NO gets complacent.

[xbl]

It's strange because on here as we know the majority of people are in the yes camp. However whenever I have spoke to people in the 'real world' it's been about 70% in favour of no.

I do support the case for independence and appreciate that proper campaigning has yet to start however if a vote was done tomorrow then it wouldn't be close. Unionists would win by 60-70% I reckon.

This forum is very one sided and unrepresentative

How many of them are an informed No though, how many are lazy No, and how many are apathetic No? There has to be a lot of nuance in it. Incidentally, if the referendum was held tomorrow, then I think it would be a lot more like the panelbase polling. A small win for the Unionists, but not much in it. Remember, so many of the No camp aren't going to bother to vote. I predict a turnout in the mid 60s.

[xbl]

The might is the important 1 in my line, I never heard 1 member of the public involved mentioning Britain in their pride, I just think your Carmichaels' etc might start actually debating issues rather than his shameful effort the other night, we witnessed gilimpses of it on QT from them all,

I put up the same point about core votes a year or so ago when I was still in the NO camp, 25% YES, 30 OR 35 % NO(can't quite remember my % for NO), it has moved towards YES but not anything like what's required yet, perhaps 2 or 3 %.

The crash won't change the debate on here but I do believe it might change it for the politicians, it's their debate that counts.

All the crash has established is that Jim Murphy is probably unkillable by any conventional means. Any idea that this might change things is sadly mistaken. Every time it comes down to actual issues, the Unionists have nothing to say. They HAVE to stick with what they have now.

Its not just about the movement from No to Yes though, its about the movement of hard No to soft no, and then to undecided, before finally going Yes. That is where it is coming from. Very, very few people are going the route of Yes > Undecided > No. Its a one way path. People who were undecided are switching to Yes, people who were soft No are becoming undecided, and a few of the hard No (the ignorant No lot) are softening up. Its a one way journey, and people are making it at different speeds.

So I'm more than happy with progress so far, its more or less exactly as I expected.

[ayrmad]

All the crash has established is that Jim Murphy is probably unkillable by any conventional means. Any idea that this might change things is sadly mistaken. Every time it comes down to actual issues, the Unionists have nothing to say. They HAVE to stick with what they have now.

Its not just about the movement from No to Yes though, its about the movement of hard No to soft no, and then to undecided, before finally going Yes. That is where it is coming from. Very, very few people are going the route of Yes > Undecided > No. Its a one way path. People who were undecided are switching to Yes, people who were soft No are becoming undecided, and a few of the hard No (the ignorant No lot) are softening up. Its a one way journey, and people are making it at different speeds.

So I'm more than happy with progress so far, its more or less exactly as I expected.

That's just your opinion, I witnessed a movement in the debate on QT, I think this will just nudge it a bit further, I certainly didn't think Goldie came across badly on QT and she's a Tory and Tories usually get hammered in Scotland.

[thepundit]

Hark at thepundit asking questions when his sole contribution to this thread is to dodge, dive, duck, and deflect.

But because I'm better than you, to answer your question, we did have polling showing over 40%, so target achieved.

What poll would that be? the pie and bovril poll?

It's strange because on here as we know the majority of people are in the yes camp. However whenever I have spoke to people in the 'real world' it's been about 70% in favour of no.

I do support the case for independence and appreciate that proper campaigning has yet to start however if a vote was done tomorrow then it wouldn't be close. Unionists would win by 60-70% I reckon.

This forum is very one sided and unrepresentative

I'm not sure why forum polls usually lean towards a Yes vote but I do have a theory as to why...

The Yes vote seems to be very popular with people who rely on state benefits and a lot (not all) of people who spend their day posting on forums are more likely to be receiving government benefits. That, and people who want change are more likely to talk about independence than those who are content with the Union, which of course would mean using things such as forums to voice their anger.

Just a theory. I may be wrong.

[xbl]

I suspect you are wrong.