Latest Polls and Latest Odds

[ayrmad]

What poll would that be? the pie and bovril poll?

I'm not sure why forum polls usually lean towards a Yes vote but I do have a theory as to why...

The Yes vote seems to be very popular with people who rely on state benefits and a lot (not all) of people who spend their day posting on forums are more likely to be receiving government benefits. That, and people who want change are more likely to talk about independence than those who are content with the Union, which of course would mean using things such as forums to voice their anger.

Just a theory. I may be wrong.

That's actually a major positive for YES, contentment doesn't create excitement and it's excitement that could cause a major swing.

Edited December 1, 2013 by ayrmad

[thepundit]

That's just your opinion, I witnessed a movement in the debate on QT, I think this will just nudge it a bit further, I certainly didn't think Goldie came across badly on QT and she's a Tory and Tories usually get hammered in Scotland.

The Question Time debate the other day was a victory for the No campaign. The Unionists got their points across well but really didn't have to say much as David was delegating the questions to Reader who does the Yes campaign No favours whatsoever. You could sense Sturgeon and Harvie cringing with every answer she gave, lol.

[Jamaldo]

thepundit obviously hasn't watched the "Rangers fans on Independence" video, where one of them was anti-independence because everyone's dole money would apparently only be £10 a week in an independent Scotland.

So no, not even close with that theory I'm afraid.

Edited December 1, 2013 by Jamaldo

[thepundit]

That's actually a major positive for YES, contentment does create excitement and it's excitement that could cause a major swing.

Absolutely. The rise of Ukip proves that but the debate has to include factual/definite solutions to current discontent, otherwise is doesn't get very far.

People don't like a gamble, a leap of faith or whatever when question marks remain over financial security. Some can call it "fear" if they want but its a very understandable apprehension to have. Salmond wants people to vote with their heart but with so much on the line they'll still vote with their head.

[thepundit]

So no, not even close with that theory I'm afraid.

I think I am, However, I respect your right to an opinion also.

[ayrmad]

Absolutely. The rise of Ukip proves that but the debate has to include factual/definite solutions to current discontent, otherwise is doesn't get very far.

People don't like a gamble, a leap of faith or whatever when question marks remain over financial security. Some can call it "fear" if they want but its a very understandable apprehension to have. Salmond wants people to vote with their heart but with so much on the line they'll still vote with their head.

I will be shocked if Salmond has nothing better nearer the time, whether you like him or not he certainly isn't a dafty on matters like this, there's actually loads about the status quo that can get hammered, it's when and how to do it that'll probably decide the referendum, being able to point out negatives in a positive manner is an art, I'm hoping YES have the guile to do it.

[thepundit]

I will be shocked if Salmond has nothing better nearer the time, whether you like him or not he certainly isn't a dafty on matters like this, there's actually loads about the status quo that can get hammered, it's when and how to do it that'll probably decide the referendum, being able to point out negatives in a positive manner is an art, I'm hoping YES have the guile to do it.

If its true that support for independence is only at 27% then I'd agree that will improve. I reckon a 65/35 victory. Its fair enough pointing negatives out but with no viable solution how can it help the Yes cause?

[Reynard]

27% in the immediate aftermath of the WP470 is catastrophic for the nat clown collective.

Looks like the Belgians are the next outfit after Spain to point and laugh at Salmonds europish.

Going well. All to play for. The doorstep is telling me good things.

[ayrmad]

If its true that support for independence is only at 27% then I'd agree that will improve. I reckon a 65/35 victory. Its fair enough pointing negatives out but with no viable solution how can it help the Yes cause?

That's the crux of it, we'll just have to wait and see if Salmond can pull it off, a single digit swing is not insurmountable in an independence referendum.

[Reynard]

Maybe the SNP do need to have a night of the long knives with the fat b*****d and get Turgid installed as the new dear leader in the run up to their defeat. Try and emulate what the French did in Canada before they narrowly lost their referendum. At least make the final ten months a bit more interesting.

[xbl]

27% in the immediate aftermath of the WP470 is catastrophic for the nat clown collective.

Looks like the Belgians are the next outfit after Spain to point and laugh at Salmonds europish.

Going well. All to play for. The doorstep is telling me good things.

Meanwhile, since you're keen to talk numbers, how about those pension figures?

[xbl]

That's the crux of it, we'll just have to wait and see if Salmond can pull it off, a single digit swing is not insurmountable in an independence referendum.

Just wait till 2 months to go when he announces that he is stepping down after the yes vote. That will add a bit of spice...

[Reynard]

That's the crux of it, we'll just have to wait and see if Salmond can pull it off, a single digit swing is not insurmountable in an independence referendum.

He isn't going to. He is making a complete mess of the whole thing so far, there's no suggestion that he has got anything up his sleeve either.

I think in the lead up to the white paper there will have been a number of the no brigade who would have been shitting a brick in case the wily old fox had managed to come up with something to change the game. But as it turned out, they had nothing to worry about at all.

[LinkinFighter]

 

 

He isn't going to. He is making a complete mess of the whole thing so far, there's no suggestion that he has got anything up his sleeve either.

 

I think in the lead up to the white paper there will have been a number of the no brigade who would have been shitting a brick in case the wily old fox had managed to come up with something to change the game. But as it turned out, they had nothing to worry about at all.

Any chance of those pension figures foxy?

[thepundit]

That's the crux of it, we'll just have to wait and see if Salmond can pull it off, a single digit swing is not insurmountable in an independence referendum.

The answers were supposed to be in the White Paper. I'm not sure what else the Salmond can do to convince people.

Were you disappointed/uninspired by the reaction to the White Paper?

[ayrmad]

He isn't going to. He is making a complete mess of the whole thing so far, there's no suggestion that he has got anything up his sleeve either.

I think in the lead up to the white paper there will have been a number of the no brigade who would have been shitting a brick in case the wily old fox had managed to come up with something to change the game. But as it turned out, they had nothing to worry about at all.

You may well be correct Reynard, I just think if the YES campaign were really really expecting the white paper to make a big difference they wouldn't have produced it 10 months b4 the referendum, it would be like showing your hand b4 the flop, Salmond is far too smart for that regardless of what any of us think about him.

[ayrmad]

The answers were supposed to be in the White Paper. I'm not sure what else the Salmond can do to convince people.

Were you disappointed/uninspired by the reaction to the White Paper?

I changed from NO to YES that day.

[ayrmad]

FTR, I actually think the YES campaign will make a small speech 2 or 3 weeks out that will clinch the vote, I won't be sharing it as it might put ideas in the heads of the NO campaign.

[thepundit]

I changed from NO to YES that day.

What was it that made you change to a Yes?

[ayrmad]

What was it that made you change to a Yes?

The serious overkill of negativity of the NO campaign and all the institutions behind them due to self interest.

The childcare bit also made me realise that this is as good as gets under the current set up, while we might, just might get something a lot better down the line.

Edited December 1, 2013 by ayrmad