5 reasons Yes is winning

[Confidemus]

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/sep/04/scottish-independence-5-reasons-yes-winning-polls

Scottish independence: 5 reasons yes is winning

There's been an eight-point shift in the polls: how can it have happened, when the odds seemed so stacked against yes?

‘Aye' cakes at Browning Bakers in Kilmarnock. ‘Famously the no campaign has to pay volunteers' expenses. No such problem affects yes.' Photograph: Robert Perry/EPA

None of this is supposed to be happening at all. Better Together is supported by every major media outlet in Scotland as well as in London. It has the full research resources of the British government and the backing of big business. Yet there now seems to be an irresistible momentum towards yes.

This week saw polls showing a massive eight-point swing to yes in the last month alone, with women and Labour voters leading the way. Photos of people queueing up to register to vote in Glasgow have been circulating. Maybe they were people queueing up to defend the union? Aye, right.

Here are five reasons why yes is winning.

1. It is a movement, not a campaign

This has several consequences. It is broad and deep and richly textured. It is motivated by core principles. In contrast, the no campaign doesn't seem to know what it's about. This week Conservative MSP Ruth Davidson defended the need for a British nuclear deterrent using an analogy of Russia invading Ukraine. It was an idea so laughable that someone tweeted: "Help the Ruskies are coming to steal our Tunnocks Tea Cakes".

Famously the no campaign has to pay volunteers' expenses. No such problem affects yes. Yet grassroots movements are more agile, it seems. When Better Together unveiled dreadfully crude posters declaring that if you loved your children you'd vote no, yes, which owns social media, was able to destroy the opposition's ad aimed at women with a hashtag.

On a purely practical level yes is just better organised. As the New Statesman points out: "The yes campaign is winning on almost every front. It has delivered more leaflets, put up more posters, set up more stalls and knocked on more doors."

2. It reaches disaffected voters

Yes knows that it has to reach beyond traditional engaged voters to win. This isn't a campaign strategy though, it's a political aspiration. This work has been going on for months.

Jonathon Shafi, co-founder of the Radical Independence Campaign, which has focused its activities over the past week on registering unemployed people to vote in the referendum at jobcentres, has said: "We think across Scotland at jobcentres over the past week we've registered at least 1,500 people. In three hours on Saturday at our Glasgow Takeover in the city centre, we had 300 people register to vote. That's people giving their full details to someone who they have most likely never met before, because they want to make sure they can vote yes on 18 September. And that's just a snapshot of what's going on across the country – we believe there's a political earthquake happening."

3. The no campaign presumes victory

We were told it was all a write-off. Charmingly, Labour MP Ian Davidson argued months ago that all that was required was to "bayonet the wounded". But the ingrained sense of entitlement that the no campaign's key staff and supporters exhibit is a crucial weakness. For some in the media elite, and for many of the political classes, this is just so absurd as to be given any real consideration at all. Tories in Dumfries were exposed as having organised a champagne celebration party for 19 September. As someone said, they were "counting their pheasants before they hatched".

They live in such well-established network of self-reinforcing mythology that the idea of independence hadn't quite struck them as being feasible until a few days ago. Befuddled by anger, they want to believe its all an SNP plot. If your prejudices make you think that Alex Salmond is Mugabe, you are so detached from reality you can't possibly create a winning campaign strategy.

4. It has passion

There's a feeling that the yes movement is defending the fabric of society against the austerity union, while the no campaign is defending a right to live in the 1950s. It makes a difference.

5. It has multiple points of leadership

The yes movement has hubs which in turn have their own network. This breeds trust and unity but also allows spontaneity and diversity. While the no campaign has a few outliers it would prefer not to mention, yes has outliers that bring strength and fresh clout, not a sense of shame.

While David Cameron lurks about in the background of the no campaign, and Gordon Brown and Alistair Darling nurture a historic visceral hatred, yes is filled with unlikely new voices, many of them young, bright and articulate. No doesn't know who its leader is and it craves leadership. Yes doesn't know who its leader is and it loves it.

But beyond all of this there is the now clear realisation that the no campaign represents entrenched interests and values. Every ruddy-faced landowner that puts up a no sign in their field tells you this. Every blustering lord that preaches about democracy reinforces it.

As the slogan goes: "Britain is for the rich. Scotland can be ours." It almost is.

[wirez]

6.

[Howlin' Wilf]

In the whole debate, Better Together have hardly mentioned the SNP's record in government. I wonder why that is?

[Venti]

7)

[Guest]

As much as I have no problems with Confidemus personally and I'm sure he's a nice guy, I kind of wish this sub-forum wasn't used by the same few people to make threads three or four times a day with whatever article they've found to support independence that day. To me that makes this feel like a wee club for the converted to preach to each other daily, and seeing the same people pushing it every day detracts from the points made in the links IMO.

Yes isn't winning, not yet anyway. The Yes movement is doing a lot better than Better Together and that may well be the difference that tips over half the country towards independence, but until the polls and odds has us ahead you can't say Yes is winning.

[Well Well]

I wouldnt trust the Polls or Bookies as far as I could throw them either. The pressure and momentum has to keep going in a positive optimistic manner and leave the pessimism and fear mongering to the No Camp. The only way we will truly know if Yes have won is the 19th September take everything else with a pinch of salt until then. The hard work is getting the message through every doorstep in every town and village across the country.

We need to get peoples heads away from the biased media and give them as much information as possible and hopefully they will vote Yes when they see the benefits.

[Collins Out!]

As much as I have no problems with Confidemus personally and I'm sure he's a nice guy, I kind of wish this sub-forum wasn't used by the same few people to make threads three or four times a day with whatever article they've found to support independence that day. To me that makes this feel like a wee club for the converted to preach to each other daily, and seeing the same people pushing it every day detracts from the points made in the links IMO.

Yes isn't winning, not yet anyway. The Yes movement is doing a lot better than Better Together and that may well be the difference that tips over half the country towards independence, but until the polls and odds has us ahead you can't say Yes is winning.

It has become a bit like the BRALT; a club with the same posters to-ing a and froi-ing with each other.

[Diamonds are Forever]

A thread presuming that Yes are going to win having a go at the No campaign for presuming victory...

How about we just stick to beating them with the reasoned debate instead of back-slapping each other before we have anything to celebrate and becoming exactly what you've criticised the No campaign for. Erin Gi Bragh has it spot on.

[ICTJohnboy]

As much as I have no problems with Confidemus personally and I'm sure he's a nice guy, I kind of wish this sub-forum wasn't used by the same few people to make threads three or four times a day with whatever article they've found to support independence that day. To me that makes this feel like a wee club for the converted to preach to each other daily, and seeing the same people pushing it every day detracts from the points made in the links IMO.

Yes isn't winning, not yet anyway. The Yes movement is doing a lot better than Better Together and that may well be the difference that tips over half the country towards independence, but until the polls and odds has us ahead you can't say Yes is winning.

Don't forget, up to two months before the May 2011 Scottish Election the polls had Labour 15 points ahead of the SNP.

[pandarilla]

There are some excellent links and articles posted on this sub-forum. Very informative stuff.

There is also a load of petty shit but there's not much folk can do about that - numpties will be numpties.

Yes there is a lack of balance but that's more to do with the desperation of the No campaign. It doesn't stand up to any sort of intellectual rigour and the arguments have very much been won.

[Guest]

Don't forget, up to two months before the May 2011 Scottish Election the polls had Labour 15 points ahead of the SNP.

Yeah but I'm not categorically saying No is winning (or at least I didn't mean to). Yes isn't officially winning anything right now, that's all I'm saying.

There are some excellent links and articles posted on this sub-forum. Very informative stuff.

There is also a load of petty shit but there's not much folk can do about that - numpties will be numpties.

Yes there is a lack of balance but that's more to do with the desperation of the No campaign. It doesn't stand up to any sort of intellectual rigour and the arguments have very much been won.

I know PnB will never be balanced, but I'd like it to be more so. I have no doubt that plenty of people who read and post on PnB are leaning towards a no vote, but IMO article after article about how Scotland will vote yes will detract people from engaging with this forum, and all that's left is 4 or 5 argumentative knobheads who seem to want to defend the no side on this sub-forum for the sake of shite-slinging and causing trouble.

From what I've seen in real life so to speak, is that there are intelligent, normal people who are sceptical about independence, but many of them can be convinced when they're given the chance to engage in reasonable debate. I know some people who've changed their mind after sensible discussion on the issues that bother them. I'm certainly not trying to censor information on the yes side, especially as I'm staunchly in the yes side myself. I just worry that a bit of overkill from certain posters is putting off some readers of PnB.

[Well Well]

Yeah but I'm not categorically saying No is winning (or at least I didn't mean to). Yes isn't officially winning anything right now, that's all I'm saying.

I know PnB will never be balanced, but I'd like it to be more so. I have no doubt that plenty of people who read and post on PnB are leaning towards a no vote, but IMO article after article about how Scotland will vote yes will detract people from engaging with this forum, and all that's left is 4 or 5 argumentative knobheads who seem to want to defend the no side on this sub-forum for the sake of shite-slinging and causing trouble.

From what I've seen in real life so to speak, is that there are intelligent, normal people who are sceptical about independence, but many of them can be convinced when they're given the chance to engage in reasonable debate. I know some people who've changed their mind after sensible discussion on the issues that bother them. I'm certainly not trying to censor information on the yes side, especially as I'm staunchly in the yes side myself. I just worry that a bit of overkill from certain posters is putting off some readers of PnB.

I agree mate but it is really difficult to reign it in when the BT are posting so many lies and deceiving people, despite being caught out and proven to be false they perpetuate it. That angers me more than anything. I would love a level headed debate but the lies and deceit are getting ridiculous.

[pandarilla]

Yeah but I'm not categorically saying No is winning (or at least I didn't mean to). Yes isn't officially winning anything right now, that's all I'm saying.

I know PnB will never be balanced, but I'd like it to be more so. I have no doubt that plenty of people who read and post on PnB are leaning towards a no vote, but IMO article after article about how Scotland will vote yes will detract people from engaging with this forum, and all that's left is 4 or 5 argumentative knobheads who seem to want to defend the no side on this sub-forum for the sake of shite-slinging and causing trouble.

From what I've seen in real life so to speak, is that there are intelligent, normal people who are sceptical about independence, but many of them can be convinced when they're given the chance to engage in reasonable debate. I know some people who've changed their mind after sensible discussion on the issues that bother them. I'm certainly not trying to censor information on the yes side, especially as I'm staunchly in the yes side myself. I just worry that a bit of overkill from certain posters is putting off some readers of PnB.

Its the articles and links and clips that do sway people. That is the engagement.

If there are many intelligent, sceptical folk who are leaning No - I don't think they'll be on here in the first place.

I've argued with Confi and other Yes posters sometimes. Its up to the Yes posters to self-police, and keep it rational.

[welshbairn]

We don't need a new topic for every blog, article or snippet.

[Confidemus]

As anyone who read the main Indy thread will have seen, I don't start a new thread for every article or snippet. However, Pandarilla is right, for every negative article in the MSM, however few people read what's posted here makes it worthwhile, be that in it's own thread or in the main Indy thread.

I make no apologies for posting links and articles and opening my big fat gub on a topic I'm extremely passionate about.

If people aren't overly keen on reading what I post, I'm not putting a gun to anyone's head.