Reluctant Hero Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Following on from Mr Bairn’s excellent preview of every seat thread, I wanted to contribute to the build up of 2015 General Election fever! If anyone else has already done this, then you can just stop reading here! I have pulled together a spreadsheet that has a load of information on it and can be used to forecast the number of seats each party is likely to get. This can either be done on a general opinion poll basis or an individual constituency basis or a combination of both. On election night, the spreadsheet can be used to record the results and by doing so, it calculates the number of seats each party gets, the overall share of the vote, the turnout in each constituency (thought this would be interesting given the high indyref turnout) and the number of lost deposits per party (thought this would be interesting for Lib Dems and UKIP in particular) with a comparison to the 2010 figures. Obviously the spreadsheet is incomplete at the moment as not all the candidates have been named and the number of registered voters has not been finalised. But it is still useful for forecasting and when things are finalised, I can send out an updated version of the spreadsheet to everyone that gets a copy of it in its present state as well as anyone else that wants it. If you don’t use it for anything else the Overview tab in the spreadsheet holds loads of useful information – each constituency sorted in order of winning margin (lowest to highest), the declaration time in 2010 (gives an indication for 2015), the sitting MP, the sitting Party, the forecast result (once you enter the opinion poll figures), the 2010 winning margin, the party that was in second in 2010, the position the SNP came in 2010 and the swing required for the SNP to take the seat, previous winners of the seat. There is also a “Legend” tab that explains exactly how each tab works and hyperlinks to take you to the exact location. I have Excel 2013, so don’t know if the spreadsheet would work if it was saved as an earlier version. I ran a compatibility check and it said it would work with Excel 2007 and Excel 2010 as well, but who knows! Can save in those versions if required. So if anyone wants a copy of the spreadsheet just now in its current state (and then a further updated one with the final candidate list and registered voters in time for election night), just send me a PM with your email address and I’ll fire it on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HaikuHibee Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 You can attach it. Get the bookies odds in there. That would add to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SodoffBaldrick Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Or upload it to Google docs or something so the latest version is always available to everyone who wants to view it (but you can retain the ability to be the only person who can edit it). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reluctant Hero Posted February 16, 2015 Author Share Posted February 16, 2015 Or upload it to Google docs or something so the latest version is always available to everyone who wants to view it (but you can retain the ability to be the only person who can edit it). Cheers, I have uploaded the spreadsheet to Google docs. The document can be found here. The only issue with uploading it, is that the links within the spreadsheet no longer work and some of the formatting has gone wrong! Also to enter any data into it, you will have to download it as a Microsoft Excel file and enable editing. You can attach it. Get the bookies odds in there. That would add to it. I have added the odds of each of the main parties to the right-hand side in the Overview tab. Other things that people may find useful: Data Entry There are only 4 columns that require any data input. These are : Column R (Notes of interest) in the Overview tab – This is optional and is a place for you to make notes about the constituency Column B (Opinion Poll %) in the Opinion Polls tab – This is where you enter the latest Scottish opinion poll data. It is currently loaded with the share of the vote percentage from the 2010 election. Once you enter data here, you can go to the Overview tab column G to see which constituencies will be won and lost. You can also go to Column C in the No of Seats tab to see how many seats each party is forecast to get based on the poll. Column F (Forecast %) in the Forecast tab – This is where you would enter forecasts for specific constituencies, for example a forecast based on the Ashcroft constituency polls. If there is data entered against a constituency, this will supersede the opinion polls tab to generate the forecast for that constituency. Column F (Actual 2015 Result (No. of votes)) in the 2015 Result tab – This is where you enter the result as it comes in on election night. This will then drive the data in Overview column H, No of Seats column D, Lost Deposits column F, Share of Vote column C and Turnout column C. Formulas There are a lot of formulas that drive the spreadsheet, so changing anything else apart from the 4 columns identified above may result in the spreadsheet not operating as it should. Guidance The Legend tab will hopefully provide any guidance if you get stuck! (although the links won't work) Forecast Because there are various ways of forecasting seats based on opinion polls, if you enter opinion poll data and get a different forecast from commentators, this may be because I have used a different methodology. The way I calculated it was to start with the share of the vote for each constituency from 2010. I then calculated the movement from the overall 2010 total share based on the Opinion Poll data. I then added or subtracted the movement form the 2010 constituency share in order to get the new forecast for the constituency. For example, imagine Labour won a seat with 50% of the vote in 2010. Their national (Scottish) Labour share of the overall vote was 42%. Now imagine the opinion polls are saying that Labour will only get 30%. The calculation for the Labour share of the vote in this particular seat would be 50% + (30% - 42%) = 38% I have restricted the forecast to the 4 main parties as well as it is extremely unlikely anyone from outwith these will win. Anyway, hope it works for everyone! (and I am taking no responsibility for any inaccuracies ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thumper Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Outstanding work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Adamski Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 That looks excellent. Well done! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HaikuHibee Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 That's pretty good mate. If you are bored, chart the polls. But it's a great guide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reluctant Hero Posted February 17, 2015 Author Share Posted February 17, 2015 I was trying to update the file, but realised if you save it as Google Docs format, you can't update it without losing the link. Therefore I have saved the file as a Microsoft Excel document. The good news is that once you download it, all the links within the document now work making it easier to use. Also all the original formatting has been maintained. The bad news is that there is a new link. But click on the new link below, download the file and enable editing and it is in a much better format. New Link That's pretty good mate. If you are bored, chart the polls. But it's a great guide. I have added 2 tabs in the spreadsheet - one that shows the poll data that has been published for Scottish Westminster voting intentions since 2014, the other showing how this looks in a graph over time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I'm Brian Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Top work. Looks like a labour of love. Never realised Coburn was standing in Gordon. Salmond will rip him a new one. Also looking at the lost deposits the Lib Dems kept 100% of their deposits in 2010. Anyone care to have a guess at what the percentage it will be this time around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reluctant Hero Posted February 19, 2015 Author Share Posted February 19, 2015 I've updated the graph in the spreadsheet to show the new poll that was published today and the other two that have been published in February. I also updated the Opinion Polls tab to show the latest poll. So if you look at the Forecast Result column (column G) in the Overview sheet you will see the 41 seats that the SNP would gain to take their total to 47 if the result was the same as the current opinion poll (and which ones the other parties would lose) - it is really interesting! Link When you click on the link, instead of clicking open, the spreadsheet works loads better if you click the download button Looks like a labour of love. I must be sad, because I do enjoy doing it haha!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Antiochas III Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Can I share this with people, given you of course full credit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reluctant Hero Posted February 20, 2015 Author Share Posted February 20, 2015 Feel free to share . Although I do not take any responsibility if any of the figures are wrong! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reluctant Hero Posted February 22, 2015 Author Share Posted February 22, 2015 Never realised Coburn was standing in Gordon. Looks like Coburn has changed his mind. He is now standing in Falkirk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elixir Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Looks like Coburn has changed his mind. He is now standing in Falkirk. Shame. It would have been good to see the horrible, fat c**ts face tripping him when Salmond is elected at a canter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reluctant Hero Posted February 22, 2015 Author Share Posted February 22, 2015 Updated the spreadsheet with latest candidates and latest odds. The candidates are filling up. It is getting closer Old link will still work, but here it is if you don't have it. Link Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reluctant Hero Posted April 15, 2015 Author Share Posted April 15, 2015 I think I have got all the confirmed candidates now loaded into the spreadsheet. In the Lost Deposits sheet, it shows how many constituencies each party is standing in. Spookily the number of candidates comes to 349 which is the same as 2010. Next week, the number of people eligible to vote will be finalised. This is needed to calculate the Turnout sheet. Once this is done, the spreadsheet will be ready for the 7th of May Hope that whoever uses it has fun! Link Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reluctant Hero Posted April 27, 2015 Author Share Posted April 27, 2015 The spreadsheet is now ready to use The only thing that isn’t working (or won’t be accurate I should say) is the Turnout sheet. I can’t find anywhere that tells me what the registered number of people eligible to vote in the election is. If I find it before the 7th of May, I will update the spreadsheet. Link Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
glasgow-sheep Posted May 5, 2015 Share Posted May 5, 2015 Bump finally downloaded the latest version of this, looking fwd to filling all the data in as we go along Edit: I have recently got an ipad, tried opening it in drive on there but didn't seem to work very well, any recommendations? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
feegle Posted May 5, 2015 Share Posted May 5, 2015 The spreadsheet is now ready to use The only thing that isn’t working (or won’t be accurate I should say) is the Turnout sheet. I can’t find anywhere that tells me what the registered number of people eligible to vote in the election is. If I find it before the 7th of May, I will update the spreadsheet. Link Try This link http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/conlist_scot.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reluctant Hero Posted May 6, 2015 Author Share Posted May 6, 2015 Bump finally downloaded the latest version of this, looking fwd to filling all the data in as we go along Edit: I have recently got an ipad, tried opening it in drive on there but didn't seem to work very well, any recommendations? Sorry, I use my laptop to use it. There are quite a lot of formulas that drive the spreadsheet, so my not be suited to the iPad - but technology isn't my strength! Try This link http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/conlist_scot.html Thanks for the link feegle, but that looks like the 2010 electorate data. I have that loaded into the spreadsheet already. I was hoping to update it with the latest figures to 20th April 2015. Therefore the Turnout analysis in the spreadsheet is going to be an estimate and not 100% accurate. I can't believe that the number of register voters has not been published yet though. Surely they need to know that for 7am tomorrow morning?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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