FlyerTon Posted March 12, 2015 Share Posted March 12, 2015 Labour look as though they are drifting a bit in terms of overall seats betting, Tories still in front. http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election/most-seats Question is, will the Tories go with a minority government or not? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bairn Posted March 12, 2015 Share Posted March 12, 2015 I don't think the Tories have too much of a choice. If they get more seats than they did in 2010, then a coalition of the right with UKIP and the DUP might be feasible, if they get similar numbers and the Lib Dem collapse isn't as bad as feared then the coalition could continue, but if the Libbies collapse then Clegg will be ousted and replaced with someone from the Left of the party. The question is, would the SNP and Labour be willing to work with the Lib Dems in the event of Clegg being replaced by someone from the party's centre-left faction? Unless the Labour vote totally collapses in the next few weeks I struggle to see a scenario where Labour + SNP + Lib Dems don't have a majority of seats, so maybe there could be an Ed Miliband led rainbow coalition even if the Tories have a slight lead in the pure number of seats. I would agree that the most likely scenario at present would be a minority government of the largest party, propped up by various confidence & supply measures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlyerTon Posted March 12, 2015 Author Share Posted March 12, 2015 Unless the Labour vote totally collapses in the next few weeks I struggle to see a scenario where Labour + SNP + Lib Dems don't have a majority of seats, so maybe there could be an Ed Miliband led rainbow coalition even if the Tories have a slight lead in the pure number of seats. With the English press scare stories about the SNP being in no. 10 in full flow, I think there could well be tactical voting going on in England to ensure the SNP can't be part of any government. Labour being the natural choice for lost votes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bairn Posted March 12, 2015 Share Posted March 12, 2015 With the English press scare stories about the SNP being in no. 10 in full flow, I think there could well be tactical voting going on in England to ensure the SNP can't be part of any government. Labour being the natural choice for lost votes. The only way England could vote tactically to keep the SNP out would either be to bloc vote Labour and give them a majority, or absolutely kick them in the pie to the point that they can't even form a coalition (resulting in either a Tory majority or a Tory/Lib coalition) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thumper Posted March 12, 2015 Share Posted March 12, 2015 The BBC is pushing very, very hard for a Tory minority government now. Expect the papers to fall in line and demand that Labour provide what will essentially be an unofficial grand coalition in the spirit of passing all the spending cuts that the 1% want while voting through Trident and whatever war is popular at the time, while providing some token resistance in an effort to stop their vote from collapsing until they can give it another go in 2020. This may very well work, given how utterly hopeless Labour are at every level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayrmad Posted March 15, 2015 Share Posted March 15, 2015 I don't think the Tories have too much of a choice. If they get more seats than they did in 2010, then a coalition of the right with UKIP and the DUP might be feasible, if they get similar numbers and the Lib Dem collapse isn't as bad as feared then the coalition could continue, but if the Libbies collapse then Clegg will be ousted and replaced with someone from the Left of the party. The question is, would the SNP and Labour be willing to work with the Lib Dems in the event of Clegg being replaced by someone from the party's centre-left faction? Unless the Labour vote totally collapses in the next few weeks I struggle to see a scenario where Labour + SNP + Lib Dems don't have a majority of seats, so maybe there could be an Ed Miliband led rainbow coalition even if the Tories have a slight lead in the pure number of seats. I would agree that the most likely scenario at present would be a minority government of the largest party, propped up by various confidence & supply measures. If SNP go into coalition with Labour or Conservatives they will throw away most of the gains they've had in recent months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Lambies Doos Posted March 15, 2015 Share Posted March 15, 2015 The SNP will not enter a coalition with any party. Despite who gains the most votes in May, the blue ties, or the slightly less blue ties. Both parties will "need" the SNP to gain a majority government, forcing whichever party has the most seats to run as a minority with the SNP holding the balance of power on a policy by policy basis. And getting some fantastic policies for Scotland. Fantastic! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wirez Posted March 15, 2015 Share Posted March 15, 2015 I might take a punt on the 12/5 odds being offered for SNP 35 seats or under. Mind you, I will be delighted if I have wasted my money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bairn Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 To clarify, when I talk about the SNP being in coalition I mean any kind of agreement where the SNP agree to prop up a government. It doesn't necessarily have to mean a full coalition like the Tory-LD one. I think it's far more likely that they'll have something similar to what they had with Annabel Goldie's Tories in the 2007-11 parliament where there was no coalition but the Tories propped them up on key votes to prevent a parliamentary impasse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gordon EF Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 To clarify, when I talk about the SNP being in coalition I mean any kind of agreement where the SNP agree to prop up a government. It doesn't necessarily have to mean a full coalition like the Tory-LD one. I think it's far more likely that they'll have something similar to what they had with Annabel Goldie's Tories in the 2007-11 parliament where there was no coalition but the Tories propped them up on key votes to prevent a parliamentary impasse. Was there really any kind of agreement between the Tories and SNP 2007-11? I thought it was more of a vote by vote thing. Effectively negotiating the budget with whoever would be wiling to work to get it through. Whilst I wouldn't want the SNP to go into full blown coalition, I'd certainly want a more formal deal in place. Ideally with Labour agreeing to vote through increased powers for Holyrood and the SNP propping the government up on some specific issues and getting the budget through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Todders Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 Was there really any kind of agreement between the Tories and SNP 2007-11? I thought it was more of a vote by vote thing. Effectively negotiating the budget with whoever would be wiling to work to get it through. That is correct. Labour had equal opportunity to have their input into the budgets and general policy making but every time the SNP gave any ground to them Labour ended up voting against their own proposals. Basically, they were opposition for oppositions sake. Say what you like about the Tories but at least their Scottish arm have tried to engage positively in the past rather than take Labours 'Bain Principle' approach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gullane No 4 Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 Yes it is good to see the Scottish Tories moving in the right direction. They used to be a decent party until Thatcher annexed them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayrmad Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 To clarify, when I talk about the SNP being in coalition I mean any kind of agreement where the SNP agree to prop up a government. It doesn't necessarily have to mean a full coalition like the Tory-LD one. I think it's far more likely that they'll have something similar to what they had with Annabel Goldie's Tories in the 2007-11 parliament where there was no coalition but the Tories propped them up on key votes to prevent a parliamentary impasse. That's fair enough, voting the wrong way on austerity, Trident and the NHS could be a wipeout moment for SNP, better to give yourself the flexibility to vote from policy to policy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bishop Briggs Posted March 21, 2015 Share Posted March 21, 2015 Yes it is good to see the Scottish Tories moving in the right direction. They used to be a decent party until Thatcher annexed them. The Scottish Tories were "annexed" by their London party long before Thatcher - 1965 when the Unionist Party merged with Conservatives. Its electoral fortunes declined steadily after the merger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceblink Posted April 23, 2015 Share Posted April 23, 2015 Most seats :Conservative 2/5 on. Next Prime Minister Ed Miliband 8/13 on. Winner: Scotland! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fide Posted April 24, 2015 Share Posted April 24, 2015 I might take a punt on the 12/5 odds being offered for SNP 35 seats or under. Mind you, I will be delighted if I have wasted my money. You'd be as well putting your money in the bin, tbh. If you're so desperate to give your money away, can I give you my address? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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