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EU Results To Watch


DeeTillEhDeh

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Psephologist Chris Hanratty has carried out an analysis of potential battlegrounds for the EU Referendum. 

 

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/eu-referendum-results-what-are-they-when-will-they-be-announced-latest-live-brexit-remain-leave-a7095441.html

 

He has used the British Electoral Study’s 30,000-person post-election survey of voting intentions to identify what the split should be in districts if there is a 50-50 vote nationally.

 

The upshot is that we can get a sense of the referendum very early on: we simply need to compare the result in a district with its predicted vote.  The results in each of these districts adds up to a tied overall vote, which is in line with current polling. In other words, a 53-47 win for Brexit in Sunderland at 12.30am would be in line with a 50:50 overall vote.  And a 50-50 national tie implies a 12-point Remain victory in Newcastle, also expected to announce its results at 12.30.

 

From his analysis he has identified 24 key districts in the 2 hours slot from 1.30 to 3.30 that should be 50-50 on a 50-50 National vote.  Therefore the more of these districts that either side wins the more likely that they have won overall nationally.

 

The districts are (with predicted declaration times):

 

  • Salford (1.30 am)
  • Merthyr Tydfil (1.30 am)
  • Denbighshire (2.00 am)
  • Malvern Hills (2.00 am)
  • Hart (2.00 am)
  • Wrexham (2.00 am)
  • Enfield (2.30 am)
  • Caerphilly (2.30 am)
  • St Helens (2.30 am)
  • Chesterfield (3.00 am)
  • County Durham (3.00 am)
  • Wirral (3.00 am)
  • Torfaen (3.00 am)
  • Epson and Ewell (3.00 am)
  • West Berkshire (3.00 am)
  • Welwyn Hatfield (3.00 am)
  • Newport, Gwent (3.30 am)
  • Milton Keynes (3.30 am)
  • Taunton Deane (3.30 am)
  • Three Rivers (3.30 am)
  • South hams (3.30 am)
  • Lancaster (3.30 am)
  • Preston (3.30 am)
  • Sutton (3.30 am)

 

Every seat is equally useful for making such a prediction: what matters isn’t whether Leave or Remain win a district (only the total vote matters, unlike a general election, where constituency victories are what count), but whether the margin of victory differs drastically from what a 50:50 result.

 

These predicted results are probabilistic, which means they really say “90 times out of 100, anything from a 1-point win for Remain to a 13-point win for Brexit in Sunderland is consistent with a 50:50 overall vote.

 

There may not be an exact 6-point win for Brexit in Sunderland, but that is the mid-point of predictions for the district, so that’s the number to keep in mind.

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How are Sunderland and Newcastle expected to be totally different? 

 

I think it's to do with UKIP but also demographics.  Sunderland and areas like Hartlepool have an older and more working-class electorate.  Newcastle and areas like Gateshead and Durham have a more cosmopolitan, youthful electorate.

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No need to stay up til 4am. It's 1pm and it's obvious it's a comfortable remain.

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Bet365 are 1/7 and 9/2 now. That mmay be a book balancing exercise of course. Or there may be a wee surge to Leave on.

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You will notice that there are no areas in Scotland in this list - all Scottish districts are notionally Remain - even if narrowly.

 

I remember the independence referendum & how a lot of the notionally "independence" areas worked out on the night...

 

Straight two-choice plebiscites are funny things, especially on a matter that isn't so party political. I reckon we're gonna have no idea how it's panning out until the Crawley result at 4am, whereupon a clear picture ought to have emerged.

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How are Sunderland and Newcastle expected to be totally different?

Newcastle has benefited quite a bit from European money. It's the focus of the region, the cultural capital and has two universities. Right wing parties like the BNP, National Front and now UKIP always seem to pick up more votes in Sunderland than the rest of the region.

I'm actually quite surprised to see Northumberland at only -2.2 there. Personally I'm strongly Remain, but Northumberland seems to get a shit deal on everything and my MP is one of the Tory crazies. I would have expected 60-70% leave here.

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Newcastle has benefited quite a bit from European money. It's the focus of the region, the cultural capital and has two universities. Right wing parties like the BNP, National Front and now UKIP always seem to pick up more votes in Sunderland than the rest of the region.

I'm actually quite surprised to see Northumberland at only -2.2 there. Personally I'm strongly Remain, but Northumberland seems to get a shit deal on everything and my MP is one of the Tory crazies. I would have expected 60-70% leave here.

I did find an article elsewhere that Northumberland does have the whole EU farming subsidies issue that could sway the vote there.

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I did find an article elsewhere that Northumberland does have the whole EU farming subsidies issue that could sway the vote there.

True, though the usual Tory farmers fields have Leave banners in this year.
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The upshot is that we can get a sense of the referendum very early on: we simply need to compare the result in a district with its predicted vote.  The results in each of these districts adds up to a tied overall vote, which is in line with current polling. In other words, a 53-47 win for Brexit in Sunderland at 12.30am would be in line with a 50:50 overall vote.  And a 50-50 national tie implies a 12-point Remain victory in Newcastle, also expected to announce its results at 12.30.

 

 

 

BBC Teeside political editor reporting that sampling is currently indicating 54-46% Leave in Sunderland.

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