DeeTillEhDeh Posted June 23, 2016 Share Posted June 23, 2016 Psephologist Chris Hanratty has carried out an analysis of potential battlegrounds for the EU Referendum. http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/eu-referendum-results-what-are-they-when-will-they-be-announced-latest-live-brexit-remain-leave-a7095441.html He has used the British Electoral Study’s 30,000-person post-election survey of voting intentions to identify what the split should be in districts if there is a 50-50 vote nationally. The upshot is that we can get a sense of the referendum very early on: we simply need to compare the result in a district with its predicted vote. The results in each of these districts adds up to a tied overall vote, which is in line with current polling. In other words, a 53-47 win for Brexit in Sunderland at 12.30am would be in line with a 50:50 overall vote. And a 50-50 national tie implies a 12-point Remain victory in Newcastle, also expected to announce its results at 12.30. From his analysis he has identified 24 key districts in the 2 hours slot from 1.30 to 3.30 that should be 50-50 on a 50-50 National vote. Therefore the more of these districts that either side wins the more likely that they have won overall nationally. The districts are (with predicted declaration times): Salford (1.30 am) Merthyr Tydfil (1.30 am) Denbighshire (2.00 am) Malvern Hills (2.00 am) Hart (2.00 am) Wrexham (2.00 am) Enfield (2.30 am) Caerphilly (2.30 am) St Helens (2.30 am) Chesterfield (3.00 am) County Durham (3.00 am) Wirral (3.00 am) Torfaen (3.00 am) Epson and Ewell (3.00 am) West Berkshire (3.00 am) Welwyn Hatfield (3.00 am) Newport, Gwent (3.30 am) Milton Keynes (3.30 am) Taunton Deane (3.30 am) Three Rivers (3.30 am) South hams (3.30 am) Lancaster (3.30 am) Preston (3.30 am) Sutton (3.30 am) Every seat is equally useful for making such a prediction: what matters isn’t whether Leave or Remain win a district (only the total vote matters, unlike a general election, where constituency victories are what count), but whether the margin of victory differs drastically from what a 50:50 result. These predicted results are probabilistic, which means they really say “90 times out of 100, anything from a 1-point win for Remain to a 13-point win for Brexit in Sunderland is consistent with a 50:50 overall vote. There may not be an exact 6-point win for Brexit in Sunderland, but that is the mid-point of predictions for the district, so that’s the number to keep in mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeeTillEhDeh Posted June 23, 2016 Author Share Posted June 23, 2016 ^^^^ anti EU font IMO. Just realised - I'll make it more legible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bairn Posted June 23, 2016 Share Posted June 23, 2016 How are Sunderland and Newcastle expected to be totally different? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GeeJay Posted June 23, 2016 Share Posted June 23, 2016 No need to stay up til 4am. It's 1pm and it's obvious it's a comfortable remain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeeTillEhDeh Posted June 23, 2016 Author Share Posted June 23, 2016 How are Sunderland and Newcastle expected to be totally different? I think it's to do with UKIP but also demographics. Sunderland and areas like Hartlepool have an older and more working-class electorate. Newcastle and areas like Gateshead and Durham have a more cosmopolitan, youthful electorate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeeTillEhDeh Posted June 23, 2016 Author Share Posted June 23, 2016 You will notice that there are no areas in Scotland in this list - all Scottish districts are notionally Remain - even if narrowly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICTChris Posted June 23, 2016 Share Posted June 23, 2016 I think it's been discussed one of the other threads but the only area possible to vote Leave in Scotland is the North East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HTG Posted June 23, 2016 Share Posted June 23, 2016 No need to stay up til 4am. It's 1pm and it's obvious it's a comfortable remain. Bet365 are 1/7 and 9/2 now. That mmay be a book balancing exercise of course. Or there may be a wee surge to Leave on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WaffenThinMint Posted June 23, 2016 Share Posted June 23, 2016 You will notice that there are no areas in Scotland in this list - all Scottish districts are notionally Remain - even if narrowly. I remember the independence referendum & how a lot of the notionally "independence" areas worked out on the night... Straight two-choice plebiscites are funny things, especially on a matter that isn't so party political. I reckon we're gonna have no idea how it's panning out until the Crawley result at 4am, whereupon a clear picture ought to have emerged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BerwickMad Posted June 23, 2016 Share Posted June 23, 2016 How are Sunderland and Newcastle expected to be totally different?Newcastle has benefited quite a bit from European money. It's the focus of the region, the cultural capital and has two universities. Right wing parties like the BNP, National Front and now UKIP always seem to pick up more votes in Sunderland than the rest of the region. I'm actually quite surprised to see Northumberland at only -2.2 there. Personally I'm strongly Remain, but Northumberland seems to get a shit deal on everything and my MP is one of the Tory crazies. I would have expected 60-70% leave here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
topcat(The most tip top) Posted June 23, 2016 Share Posted June 23, 2016 How are Sunderland and Newcastle expected to be totally different? Newcastle's like Glasgow actually is Sunderland's like what people in Edinburgh say Glasgow is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeeTillEhDeh Posted June 23, 2016 Author Share Posted June 23, 2016 Newcastle has benefited quite a bit from European money. It's the focus of the region, the cultural capital and has two universities. Right wing parties like the BNP, National Front and now UKIP always seem to pick up more votes in Sunderland than the rest of the region. I'm actually quite surprised to see Northumberland at only -2.2 there. Personally I'm strongly Remain, but Northumberland seems to get a shit deal on everything and my MP is one of the Tory crazies. I would have expected 60-70% leave here. I did find an article elsewhere that Northumberland does have the whole EU farming subsidies issue that could sway the vote there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BerwickMad Posted June 23, 2016 Share Posted June 23, 2016 I did find an article elsewhere that Northumberland does have the whole EU farming subsidies issue that could sway the vote there.True, though the usual Tory farmers fields have Leave banners in this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sooky Posted June 23, 2016 Share Posted June 23, 2016 The upshot is that we can get a sense of the referendum very early on: we simply need to compare the result in a district with its predicted vote. The results in each of these districts adds up to a tied overall vote, which is in line with current polling. In other words, a 53-47 win for Brexit in Sunderland at 12.30am would be in line with a 50:50 overall vote. And a 50-50 national tie implies a 12-point Remain victory in Newcastle, also expected to announce its results at 12.30. BBC Teeside political editor reporting that sampling is currently indicating 54-46% Leave in Sunderland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bairn Posted June 24, 2016 Share Posted June 24, 2016 Merthyr Tidfil 56% out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bairn Posted June 24, 2016 Share Posted June 24, 2016 Denbighshire 54% Brexit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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