The DUP

[gannonball]

7 hours ago, Suspect Device said:

A staunch launch for the Together UK Foundation. 

 

 

 

Was pretending he was a Celtic fan a few years ago too

 

[The Golden God]

I know this is technically the DUP thread but it’s really the de facto NI one as well. Anyone with proper knowledge, how well are SF actually doing? Is it as big a win as being made out online and who are they taking seats from?

[Jacksgranda]

3 hours ago, The Golden God said:

I know this is technically the DUP thread but it’s really the de facto NI one as well. Anyone with proper knowledge, how well are SF actually doing? Is it as big a win as being made out online and who are they taking seats from?

I'm no political analyst but here's my take on it. SF are taking seats from the SDLP and independents, but because the Ulster Unionist core vote appears to have stayed at home, unionist transfers aren't there** so SF is benefiting by picking up extra seats that might have normally gone to a unionist of whatever persuasion. First preference votes for the UU and the SDLP are way down, DUP's is down slightly and looks like it's gone to the TUV.

Thus far the DUP and TUV are holding their own/up slightly. Alliance are also doing well, but there's no denying SF are far and away the clear winners.

Turnout is only 55%, however I don't know how that compares with the last local elections,* usually council elections coincide with Assembly/European elections which tends to boost the turn out. SF got their vote out as always and are cleaning up.

* ETA: Shows what I know - turnout at the 2 previous council elections was even lower at 53% and 51% 

** ETA 2: It may be that DUP & TUV surplus votes haven't been transferred to the UU, which seems strange, but that would account for the loss of UUP seats.

Edited May 20, 2023 by Jacksgranda

[btb]

4 hours ago, Jacksgranda said:

** ETA 2: It may be that DUP & TUV surplus votes haven't been transferred to the UU, which seems strange, but that would account for the loss of UUP seats.

I note the DUP & UUP votes are slightly down but TUV vote is slightly up - is this a sign of more Unionists adopting a siege mentality?

[Jacksgranda]

22 minutes ago, btb said:

I note the DUP & UUP votes are slightly down but TUV vote is slightly up - is this a sign of more Unionists adopting a siege mentality?

The TUV share has been growing slightly election on election but hasn't translated into a proportionate amount of seats (particularly at Stormont).

The minus of the DUP nearly equals the plus of the TUV. No idea where the UUP vote has gone - Alliance probably.

[LongTimeLurker]

4 hours ago, btb said:

I note the DUP & UUP votes are slightly down but TUV vote is slightly up - is this a sign of more Unionists adopting a siege mentality?

Maybe more a sign that a tired cliche is being adopted? You also need to bear in mind that most Alliance voters are pro-Union but too well brought up to make a fuss about it and Alliance are doing quite well at the other end of the pro-Union spectrum. 

Edited May 20, 2023 by LongTimeLurker

[sparky88]

Saw a clip of UUP's Danny Kennedy wondering why Sinn Fein weren't giving the poor wee unionists a chance, such has been the poor performance in some council areas of the unionist parties. 

[Jacksgranda]

32 minutes ago, sparky88 said:

Saw a clip of UUP's Danny Kennedy wondering why Sinn Fein weren't giving the poor wee unionists a chance, such has been the poor performance in some council areas of the unionist parties. 

It's the UUP that's performed poorly, the DUP and TUV have held their own/increased their seats, the UUP have collapsed, losing nearly 30% of their seats. The UUP voters either stayed at home or voted Alliance, consequentally there weren't enough transfers between unionist parties and SF collected seats they normally wouldn't as well as hoovering up SDLP and Independents.

[CarrbridgeSaintee]

1 hour ago, Jacksgranda said:

It's the UUP that's performed poorly, the DUP and TUV have held their own/increased their seats, the UUP have collapsed, losing nearly 30% of their seats. The UUP voters either stayed at home or voted Alliance, consequentally there weren't enough transfers between unionist parties and SF collected seats they normally wouldn't as well as hoovering up SDLP and Independents.

Could you ever see a merger between any of the Unionist parties?  I keep hearing the idea being floated, but just can't see it.

Although in saying that, was a joint UUP/DUP candidate not tried in a general election a good few years back?  Memory is a bit hazy.

[Jacksgranda]

15 minutes ago, CarrbridgeSaintee said:

Could you ever see a merger between any of the Unionist parties?  I keep hearing the idea being floated, but just can't see it.

Although in saying that, was a joint UUP/DUP candidate not tried in a general election a good few years back?  Memory is a bit hazy.

No, there are elements within the UUP who hate the DUP, and would rather let a nationalist win a seat as vote DUP, even when it's the only sensible option if you want unionist representation.

The DUP constantly call for unionists to come together and say there are too many unionist parties but that is as far as it ever seems to go - as far as I know there has never been a serious attempt to get all the unionists under one umbrella.

Anyway the TUV will hardly go back to the DUP, Jim Allister is one of the DUP's sternest critics, I think he would dissolve the TUV and retire from politics before he would sanction a DUP/TUV merger. I imagine however, that most TUV voters would return to the fold.

The PUP might consider merging, but they are a miniscule party in terms of seats and voters. Where would their voters go if there was no PUP (which looks increasingly likely)? Who knows.

The DUP and the UUP have often co-operated in the past by fielding an agreed candidate to maximise the unionist vote, but that's it. They may try that agian in a general election, but it doesn't work at Assembly/council level.

The % of the vote that went to unionists is the same as 20 years ago, I heard on Radio Ulster, so the "problem" (apart from getting apathetic unionists to actually vote) is not that the unionist vote is shrinking per se, it is that the nationalist/republican vote is coalescing around Sinn Fein - one party, (while the SDLP withers on the vine) whereas the unionist vote is split 3 ways.

A merger of the unionist parties certainly makes sense, providing everybody who currently votes for a unionist party then votes for the new, improved unionist party, which I don't think will happen for reasons as stated above - basically some unionists hate other unionists more than they detest Sinn Fein, and a proportion of liberal unionists will vote for the Alliance Party. After all, if you are a liberal unionist, why vote for a pale imitation when you can vote for the real thing? Similarly there are those within the SDLP who would never contemplate voting SF, but they are a dying breed.

[CarrbridgeSaintee]

6 minutes ago, Jacksgranda said:

No, there are elements within the UUP who hate the DUP, and would rather let a nationalist win a seat as vote DUP, even when it's the only sensible option if you want unionist representation.

The DUP constantly call for unionists to come together and say there are too many unionist parties but that is as far as it ever seems to go - as far as I know there has never been a serious attempt to get all the unionists under one umbrella.

Anyway the TUV will hardly go back to the DUP, Jim Allister is one of the DUP's sternest critics, I think he would dissolve the TUV and retire from politics before he would sanction a DUP/TUV merger. I imagine however, that most TUV voters would return to the fold.

The PUP might consider merging, but they are a miniscule party in terms of seats and voters. Where would their voters go if there was no PUP (which looks increasingly likely)? Who knows.

The DUP and the UUP have often co-operated in the past by fielding an agreed candidate to maximise the unionist vote, but that's it. They may try that agian in a general election, but it doesn't work at Assembly/council level.

The % of the vote that went to unionists is the same as 20 years ago, I heard on Radio Ulster, so the "problem" (apart from getting apathetic unionists to actually vote) is not that the unionist vote is shrinking per se, it is that the nationalist/republican vote is coalescing around Sinn Fein - one party, (while the SDLP withers on the vine) whereas the unionist vote is split 3 ways.

A merger of the unionist parties certainly makes sense, providing everybody who currently votes for a unionist party then votes for the new, improved unionist party, which I don't think will happen for reasons as stated above - basically some unionists hate other unionists more than they detest Sinn Fein, and a proportion of liberal unionists will vote for the Alliance Party. After all, if you are a liberal unionist, why vote for a pale imitation when you can vote for the real thing? Similarly there are those within the SDLP who would never contemplate voting SF, but they are a dying breed.

Cheers for the detailed reply, Jacks.

My in-laws are DUP voters, although they've just moved to Scotland so Sir Jeff can kiss their votes goodbye.

Others in the extended family vote for the Ulster Unionists and I do notice the attitude you speak of.  I'm thinking this is a deeply ingrained thing that goes right back to the days of Paisley and Never-Never-Never!

SF's PR machine is incredible.

[Jacksgranda]

11 minutes ago, CarrbridgeSaintee said:

Cheers for the detailed reply, Jacks.

My in-laws are DUP voters, although they've just moved to Scotland so Sir Jeff can kiss their votes goodbye.

Others in the extended family vote for the Ulster Unionists and I do notice the attitude you speak of.  I'm thinking this is a deeply ingrained thing that goes right back to the days of Paisley and Never-Never-Never!

SF's PR machine is incredible.

Some UUs blame Paisley for destroying the UUP, all the way back to the O'Neill days, but imho, the UUP wasn't that hard to destroy.

The IRA not decommissioning at the start of the power sharing Executive also holed them below the water line.

[The Golden God]

On 22/05/2023 at 13:18, CarrbridgeSaintee said:

Cheers for the detailed reply, Jacks.

My in-laws are DUP voters, although they've just moved to Scotland so Sir Jeff can kiss their votes goodbye.

Others in the extended family vote for the Ulster Unionists and I do notice the attitude you speak of.  I'm thinking this is a deeply ingrained thing that goes right back to the days of Paisley and Never-Never-Never!

SF's PR machine is incredible.

Sinn Féin’s PR don’t even need to do anything. They could just be like “look at these idiots”, every time they’re asked a question and they would still look like the most normal option (to an outsider). Their “progressive” views on things such as abortion and gay rights are just the bare minimum for any major political party these days. The only thing I’m surprised by is that O’Neill went to the coronation, doubt it will win them any votes but it certainly won’t lose them any either. 
 

I don’t think unification is coming any time soon, but the longer the unionist parties continue banging on and on about Brexit, the more likely it gets. There must surely be some one at a senior level who can tell them to just leave it out and get back to Government before everyone but the hard core unionists abandons them forever. 

[PossilYM]

On 20/05/2023 at 11:16, The Golden God said:

I know this is technically the DUP thread but it’s really the de facto NI one as well. Anyone with proper knowledge, how well are SF actually doing? Is it as big a win as being made out online and who are they taking seats from?

My advice would be to look up NI Elections Ark

Probably the best election website with regards to NI.

Btw, an element of truth in the stay at home Unionist vote.

Problem is they've been staying at home now for decades.

[LongTimeLurker]

12 hours ago, The Golden God said:

... I don’t think unification is coming any time soon, but the longer the unionist parties continue banging on and on about Brexit, ...

Think the reason transfers between the strongly and mildly pro-Union parties were not as efficient as those between SF and the SDLP etc is that they are not on the same page on how to deal with the Windsor Framework. TUV and DUP want to keep boycotting Stormont over it until some unlikely scenario unfolds (TUV more dogmatically than the DUP), the UUP are still opposed but want to start power sharing up again because they can live with it, and Alliance never had much of a problem with the Northern Ireland Protocol.

The vehemence with which these views are held probably leads to more of an unwillingness to keep selecting candidates down the ballot paper until you reach the former balaclava wearers than was the case previously and that means SF hoovers up a few more councillors. If that divide among pro-Union voters continues, is there still a niche for TUV now the DUP is arguably more hardline than it was previously and do you need the UUP if Alliance does the moderate voter block evolving from Faulknerite Unionism angle better than they do?

Beyond all that I think it should be remembered that Ulster Unionists were far from a homogenous entity historically and 1912-72 when one size fitted all was the aberration in some ways. Presbyterians were not part of the Anglican Ascendancy and the legacy of that is still there even if it isn't talked up that much. The Rev. Ian Paisley was basically a case of a late 1600s Scottish Covenanter leader who sincerely believed that the Pope was the Antichrist stepping out of the pages of a history book and entering the fray politically on an island that was still in large measure one of the most devoutly Roman Catholic parts of western Europe. The rest as they say is history, but the political influence of the Free Presbyterian Church of Ulster was never going to appeal universally across the entire Ulster Unionist population given a sizable chunk of them are still Anglican.

 

Edited May 26, 2023 by LongTimeLurker

[Jacksgranda]

Alliance going to court to try to get the count redone in Derry & Strabane where they lost both their seats, the one they are querying by only 49 votes with 150 transfers unaccounted for.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-65817311

Can't see them getting a lot of transfers from the DUP.

 

[btb]

Any need to worry has been removed, Gene Simmons/KISS are gonna sort it out, after all they've got more pyros than the paramilitaries.

Kiss star Gene Simmons calls for return of NI government (msn.com)

[Jacksgranda]

54 minutes ago, btb said:

Any need to worry has been removed, Gene Simmons/KISS are gonna sort it out, after all they've got more pyros than the paramilitaries.

Kiss star Gene Simmons calls for return of NI government (msn.com)

Paisley likely thinks he'll get a free holiday out of it...

[moses1924]

What do think the chances are of the DUP and UUP merging @Jacksgrandawould seem to be the only way to beat SF, or maybe they come to an agreement not to stand against each other?

[PossilYM]

17 minutes ago, moses1924 said:

What do think the chances are of the DUP and UUP merging @Jacksgrandawould seem to be the only way to beat SF, or maybe they come to an agreement not to stand against each other?

Didn't seem to help them much in North or South Belfast using that tactic.