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Winners and Runners-Up

Dunning1874

By Dunning1874
in Domestic Cup Football

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Dunning1874

Dunning1874

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I've tried to put down every possible scenario remaining for group winners and runners-up now that most teams have only one game left. Apologies for the length of the post but I've included the ridiculous but still technically possible scenarios as well. Let me know if I've made any mistakes, it's highly likely I have tbh.

Group A

Falkirk are already through as group winners.

Stirling Albion are currently in second place with 7 points having played all their games. Inverness Caledonian Thistle on 5 points are the only team who can overtake them.

If ICT win away to Forfar they will finish second with 8 points.
If ICT draw with Forfar then win the penalty shootout to move onto 7 points, second place will be decided on Goals Scored. Both teams have a GD of +1 with Stirling having scored 6 and ICT having scored 3. The next tie-break after goals scored is away goals scored and Stirling have 4 while ICT have 0, so a 3-3 draw would still put Stirling second - the only way the 7 point scenario can put ICT second is a 4-4 draw or higher.

Group B

Dunfermline are currently first with 8 points, with Hearts and Peterhead in second and third with 6 points. Saturday's games are Hearts v Dunfermline and Elgin v Peterhead.

If Dunfermline avoid defeat v Hearts they will win the group, unless they draw then lose on penalties and Peterhead also beat Elgin by 12 goals.

If Hearts win they will win the group, unless Peterhead beat Elgin by five more goals than Hearts beat Dunfermline.

The two scenarios above are the only way Peterhead can win the group.

The runners-up scenarios:

Runner-up with 9 points
Hearts and Peterhead both win - Peterhead second unless their margin of victory is five goals larger than Hearts, in which case Hearts second
Peterhead beat Elgin while Dunfermline draw then lose on penalties - Peterhead second unless they beat Elgin by 12 goals
Peterhead beat Elgin while Dunfermline win, or draw then win on penalties - Peterhead finish second

Runner-up with 8 points
Hearts beat Dunfermline, Peterhead lose to Elgin or draw and lose on penalties - Dunfermline finish second
Hearts beat Dunfermline, Peterhead draw with Elgin then win on penalties - Dunfermline finish second unless Hearts win by 13 goals, taking Peterhead above them on GD
Hearts and Dunfermline draw then Hearts win on penalties, Peterhead fail to beat to Elgin - Hearts finish second
Hearts and Dunfermline draw then Dunfermline win on penalties, Peterhead draw with Elgin then win on penalties - Peterhead finish second

Runner-up on 7 points

Hearts draw then lose on penalties while Peterhead lose or draw then lose on penalties - Hearts finish second
Peterhead draw then lose on penalties while Hearts lose - Peterhead finish second

Runner-up on 6 points

Both Hearts and Peterhead lose - Hearts finish second unless Dunfermline beat Hearts by six goals more more than Elgin beat Peterhead/five goals more with Peterhead scoring two more than Hearts

Group C

Cowdenbeath and Dundee have still only played twice so will revisit this after tonight's game, but if Dundee win it puts both them and Dundee United on 9 points with their game on Saturday being the decider of winners/runners-up.

Group D

Ross County on 8 points, Hibs on 7, Arbroath on 5. Remaining games are Alloa v Hibs & Arbroath v Ross County.

If Ross County beat Arbroath, they win the group and Hibs finish second regardless of their result v Alloa.

If Hibs beat Alloa and Ross County fail to beat Arbroath, Hibs win the group.

If Arbroath beat Ross County by 5 goals and Hibs lose to Alloa, Arbroath win the group.

If Arbroath beat Ross County and Hibs draw with Alloa then Hibs win the group, unless they lose on penalties and Arbroath beat Ross County by 10 goals.

Runners-up scenarios:

10 points

Both Ross County and Hibs win - Hibs second
Hibs win, Ross County draw then win on penalties - Ross County second

9 points

Ross County win or draw then win on penalties, Hibs draw then win on penalties - Hibs second
Hibs win, Ross County draw then lose on penalties - Ross County second

8 points

Ross County avoid defeat, Hibs draw then lose on penalties - Hibs second
Hibs avoid defeat, Arbroath beat Ross County by less than five goals - Ross County second
Hibs lose, Arbroath beat Ross County by less than five goals - Arbroath second
Hibs lose, Arbroath beat Ross County by more than five goals - Ross County second
Hibs win or draw then win on penalties, Arbroath beat Ross County by five or more - Arbroath second
Hibs draw then lose on penalties, Arbroath beat Ross County by 10 goals - Hibs second

7 points

Hibs lose, Arbroath fail to win - Hibs second
Hibs lose by 11 goals, Arbroath draw then win on penalties - Arbroath second

Group E

Ayr on 9 points, Kilmarnock on 6 points, Clyde on 6 points. Remaining games are Annan v Ayr and Kilmarnock v Dumbarton

Ayr will win the group unless they lose and Kilmarnock win with a four or five goal swing to Kilmarnock dependent on goals scored. Ayr's goal difference is 7 with 9 goals scored, Kilmarnock's is 3 with 6 scored, so if Ayr lose 2-0 and Kilmarnock win 2-0 Ayr will go through on goals scored. If Ayr lose 2-0 and Kilmarnock win 3-1 the next tie-breaker is away goals scored, so again Ayr go through. If Ayr lose 2-0 and Kilmarnock win 4-2, Kilmarnock go through on goals scored.

Runners-up

9 points

Kilmarnock win, Ayr avoid defeat or lose without four/five goal swing to Kilmarnock - Kilmarnock second
Kilmarnock win, Ayr lose with four/five goal swing - Ayr second

8 points - Kilmarnock draw then win on penalties
7 points - Kilmarnock draw then lose on penalties

6 points

Kilmarnock lose by less than 8 - Kilmarnock second
Kilmarnock lose by 8 but score twice - Kilmarnock second
Kilmarnock lose by 8 without scoring twice or lose by more than 8 - Clyde second

Group F

Similar to Group A but without second and third having the same goal difference. Motherwell have already won the group, Queen's Park are second on 7 points having played all their games, Morton are third on 5 points but have an inferior goal difference to Queen's Park.

If Morton beat Edinburgh City, they finish second on 8 points.
If Morton fail to beat Edinburgh City, Queen's Park finish second on 7 points.

Group G

Albion Rovers are top on 6 points with GD of 3 and GS of 10, Hamilton second on 6 points with GD of 2 and GS of 8, Queen of the South third on 5 points with GD of 2 and GS of 4. Remaining games are Hamilton v Stenhousemuir and QoS v Albion Rovers.

9 point runners-up

If Albion Rovers and Hamilton both win they're first and second. Hamilton need to win by a greater margin than Rovers by 2, or a margin of one and outscoring them by three.

8 point runners-up

Albion Rovers win, Hamilton draw then win penalties - Rovers win the group, Hamilton second
Hamilton win, Albion Rovers draw then win penalties - Hamilton win the group, Albion Rovers second
Albion Rovers and Hamilton both draw then win penalties - Albion Rovers win the group, Hamilton second
QoS win, Hamilton draw then win penalties - QoS win the group, Hamilton second
QoS win, Hamilton win - Hamilton win the group, QoS second

7 point runners-up

QoS and Albion Rovers draw, QoS win the penalties, Hamilton win - Hamilton win the group, Albion Rovers second ahead of QoS on GD
QoS and Albion Rovers draw, QoS win the penalties, Hamilton draw then win on penalties - Hamilton win the group, Albion Rovers second ahead of QoS on GD
QoS and Albion Rovers draw by a scoreline smaller than 5-5, QoS win the penalties, Hamilton draw then lose on penalties - Albion Rovers win the group on GD, Hamilton second on goals scored
QoS and Albion Rovers draw with QoS scoring at least 5 more than Hamilton, QoS win the penalties, Hamilton draw then lose on penalties - Albion Rovers win the group on GD, QoS second on goals scored
QoS and Albion Rovers draw, QoS win the penalties, Hamilton lose - Albion Rovers win the group, QoS second
Albion Rovers win, Hamilton draw then lose penalties - Rovers win group, Hamilton second
QoS win, Hamilton draw then lose penalties - QoS win group, Hamilton second

6 point runners-up

QoS win, Hamilton lose - QoS win the group. Hamilton second if QoS margin of victory is two goals or more greater than Stenhousemuir, Albion Rovers second if QoS margin of victory is not two goals greater than Stenhousemuir.

Group H

Livingston have already won the group and have played all their games, Partick have already finished second and are playing Stranraer. They currently have 7 points and a GD of 6.

Best Runners-Up

There's so many scenarios you can't distil them into one format, but as a guide we can look at the maximum/minimum points for each group for second place as it stands.

Min 2nd Points  Max 2nd Points

Group A            7                          8
Group B            6                          9
Group C            6                         10
Group D            7                         10
Group E            6                          9
Group F            7                          8
Group G           6                           9
Group H            7                         10

Looking at the possible maximums we can safely say no one with less than 9 points is going to take a runner-up slot without an absolutely ridiculous sequence of results, and we could easily have someone on 9 points missing out on GD too. If Dundee win tonight then you're getting at least 9 points for the runner-up in Group C, you'd expect Hibs & Ross County to get to 9 and probably both hit 10 in Group D, Partick should make 10. If those come to pass then anyone on 8 points would need none of Kilmarnock, Hearts and Peterhead to win and hope none of the other scenarios such as Albion Rovers and Hamilton both winning come through, then after they'd still be depending on goal difference.

The Goal Difference, Goals Scored and Away Goals of all teams who can still finish second is as follows:

Dunfermline GD 10, GS 11, AG 0
Hibs 9, 10, 0
Dundee United 8, 9, 3
Ross County 8, 8, 6
Ayr 7, 9, 3
Partick 6, 8, 3
Albion Rovers 3, 10, 5
Kilmarnock 3, 6, 2
Hearts 3, 5, 2
Dundee 3, 4, 2
Hamilton 2, 8, 7
Raith 2, 7, 6
Queen of the South 2, 4, 4
Stirling 1, 6, 4
Inverness Caledonian Thistle 1, 3, 0
Queen's Park 0, 9, 5
Arbroath -1, 6, 2
Cowdenbeath -1, 5, 1
Peterhead -2, 4, 1
Morton -3, 3, 1
Clyde -4, 7, 3

Looking at that, there's a fair chance of Peterhead finishing second with 9 points and still missing out.

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Salvo Montalbano

Salvo Montalbano

Posted
Posted
45 minutes ago, d31 said:

oops well aye thats why am asking the question?

:)

Seeds: Celtic, Aberdeen, Rangers, St Johnstone, Ayr, Falkirk, Motherwell, Dundee/Dundee Utd. 

Non-seeds: Dunfermline, Livingston, Hamilton, Dundee/Dundee Utd, Hibs, Ross County, Partick, Kilmarnock.

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