ICTChris Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 Reports that Putin will sign a decree annexing Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhia to the Russian Federation at 3pm in Moscow tomorrow. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
101 Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 7 minutes ago, ICTChris said: Reports that Putin will sign a decree annexing Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhia to the Russian Federation at 3pm in Moscow tomorrow. How many of these are in full Russian control? Its going to be interesting to see how it's managed to avoid escalation when he can claim an invasion has begun on any areas under full Russian control tomorrow. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongTimeLurker Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 None are fully under control of Russia although Luhansk oblast is > 98% controlled. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICTChris Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 2 minutes ago, 101 said: How many of these are in full Russian control? Its going to be interesting to see how it's managed to avoid escalation when he can claim an invasion has begun on any areas under full Russian control tomorrow. Donetsk - Around 60% in Russian control. Luhansk - Around 95% in Russian control. Zaporiziha - Aounrd 60% in Russian control. Kherson - Around 90% in Russian control. Ukraine is attacking in Kherson and Luhansk at the moment though. Population spead is different - the majority of the population in Zaporizhia are in Ukrainian controlled areas for example. Quite a lot of the areas that have seen heavy fighting during the war have seen most of the population leave. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
101 Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 6 minutes ago, ICTChris said: Donetsk - Around 60% in Russian control. Luhansk - Around 95% in Russian control. Zaporiziha - Aounrd 60% in Russian control. Kherson - Around 90% in Russian control. Ukraine is attacking in Kherson and Luhansk at the moment though. Population spead is different - the majority of the population in Zaporizhia are in Ukrainian controlled areas for example. Quite a lot of the areas that have seen heavy fighting during the war have seen most of the population leave. Thanks, does seem like Putin is just waiting for an excuse to escalate further I guess the big question is how he does that. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 In statements they usually start with Donetsk and Luhansk, and sometimes add Zaporiziha and Kherson almost as an afterthought. Could be they're leaving some wiggle room with Donetsk and Luhansk as their absolute bottom line if it goes badly for them and they need to negotiate on the other two. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Detournement Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 There's a fire at the Zaporohyze Nuclear Power Plant. It's been a strangely eventful week. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Detournement Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 1 hour ago, welshbairn said: In statements they usually start with Donetsk and Luhansk, and sometimes add Zaporiziha and Kherson almost as an afterthought. Could be they're leaving some wiggle room with Donetsk and Luhansk as their absolute bottom line if it goes badly for them and they need to negotiate on the other two. Russia is going to integrate all four regions into a Crimean Federal District. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 What the Moscow papers say. Medvedev getting a bit of a kicking. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 7 minutes ago, Detournement said: Russia is going to integrate all four regions into a Crimean Federal District. Aye, to be ruled over by this chap. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The DA Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 2 hours ago, 101 said: Thanks, does seem like Putin is just waiting for an excuse to escalate further I guess the big question is how he does that. I'm guessing that any attacks launched by UKR to regain lost ground will then be seen as an attack on Russian territory and will allow him to formally declare war. Not sure what he does then. Call up the big army (which he can't train, arm or command) and throw them at the front lines? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bairnardo Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 I'm guessing that any attacks launched by UKR to regain lost ground will then be seen as an attack on Russian territory and will allow him to formally declare war. Not sure what he does then. Call up the big army (which he can't train, arm or command) and throw them at the front lines?NATO presumably planning for that eventuality and have a plan for what to do if they are suddenly given the opportunity to rout Russias entire forces using Ukranian meat shields..... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICTChris Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 22 minutes ago, The DA said: I'm guessing that any attacks launched by UKR to regain lost ground will then be seen as an attack on Russian territory and will allow him to formally declare war. Not sure what he does then. Call up the big army (which he can't train, arm or command) and throw them at the front lines? 21 minutes ago, Bairnardo said: NATO presumably planning for that eventuality and have a plan for what to do if they are suddenly given the opportunity to rout Russias entire forces using Ukranian meat shields..... I don't think declaring war is going to make any difference now. Pre-mobilisation, the argument for Putin to declare war was that it would allow him to start a mobilisation and enact stop/loss policies for contract soldiers (ie professional soldiers cannot refuse to deploy). The decree around mobilisation has done this without a declaration of war. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongTimeLurker Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 54 minutes ago, The DA said: I'm guessing that any attacks launched by UKR to regain lost ground will then be seen as an attack on Russian territory and will allow him to formally declare war.... Does war or SMO make any practical difference at this point? My money's on naw it disnae. The mobilisation apparently is less partial than initially spun and they can basically already take whoever they want on pain of a 10 year jail sentence Stalin and the gulag archipelago style. Problem for Putin is that if Nordstream is completely toast (yet to hear if the fourth leak reported today took out the remaining NS 2 pipeline that was said to be undamaged yesterday) Ukraine and Poland control most of the remaining pipeline inventory to central and western Europe. They will both choose freezing this winter if need be, so his leverage is largely gone. In other words he is annexing parts of four oblasts while losing fossil fuel sales to the EU before he has time to pivot effectively to China on pipelines and with the lend lease programme yet to ramp up. If he ordered the divers in under the Baltic he is monumentally stupid but after what happened on Feb 24th it's not safe to assume he is a rational actor. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Detournement Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 Germans are going to have their access to heating limited this winter. Protests demanding more gas via NS2 would have been huge but obviously not now. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Detournement Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 12 minutes ago, LongTimeLurker said: (yet to hear if the fourth leak reported today took out the remaining NS 2 pipeline that was said to be undamaged yesterday) Lol. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Todd_is_God Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 2 minutes ago, Detournement said: Germans are going to have their access to heating limited this winter. Protests demanding more gas via NS2 would have been huge but obviously not now. It couldn't be more obvious the attacks on NS were carried out by the US in an effort to control its so-called allies in case they decided to tell them that, actually, it turns out they aren't willing to freeze their own citizens, or transfer any more wealth to the US in the form of buying LNG at any named price for the sake of their beef with Russia. Europe is little more than collateral damage in this war now, and Ukraine itself barely an afterthought. The US is not the ally to the UK and EU they are painted to be. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 (edited) 45 minutes ago, LongTimeLurker said: If he ordered the divers in under the Baltic he is monumentally stupid but after what happened on Feb 24th it's not safe to assume he is a rational actor. If he did it he's pretty well made rapprochement with the West impossible, the leverage is gone, assuming the pipeline is unrepairable. He's shown any voices advocating compromise that it's not going to happen, and Russia is just going to have to live with the sanctions, and he's not going to do anything to get them lifted. That combined with seizing Ukrainian territory into the Russian empire means he's blocking any route to compromise. He made an almighty misjudgement on February 24th but can't admit it, so Russia will just have to bear the consequences for years to come, and Europe for one chilly winter. Edited September 29, 2022 by welshbairn 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dorlomin Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 Lot of noise that Belarus is beginning a mobilisation. Seems nuts. I will believe it when I see it. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 (edited) 29 minutes ago, dorlomin said: Lot of noise that Belarus is beginning a mobilisation. Seems nuts. I will believe it when I see it. Lukashenko is far more vulnerable to public resistance than Putin, I doubt he'd test their loyalty, or his army's. Edited September 29, 2022 by welshbairn 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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