Russian invasion of Ukraine

[The DA]

2 hours ago, Billy Jean King said:

2 hours ago, jagfox said:

Kerch Bridge repairs to be completed by July 2023.
 

Aye but will it come in on budget ?

And will it have to shut when it snows?

[TxRover]

2 hours ago, Dev said:

One potential target could be Norway's Gas infrastructure. If Russia is daft enough to go after Nato then it is WWIII.

Doubtful. Strategic bombers attempting to penetrate NATO airspace would be a catastrophic failure, and stand-off missiles (if any are left) can be fired from further away than where those bombers currently are based. This is a pure posturing event, allows a few flights around the edges of NATO airspace to rattle a few cages.

[ICTChris]

It will be interesting to see what's coming in Kherson - seems like the Russian collaborator administration are preparing an evacuation but the Ukrainian military have also said people should leave.

There doesn't seem to have been signfiicant advances in a few days, seems like Ukraine are reorganising for an attack.

If Russia don't retreat from the major cities, it will be a dilemma for what Ukraine are to do - Kherson is a little smaller than Mariupol but a battle for it would be catastrophic for the civilians, for the city's infrastructure and would cost a lot of lives on both sides.

[Sergeant Wilson]

If I was Putin (I'm not), before ending the SMO, I'd withdraw razing everything to the ground and killing everybody. I'd then have achieved what I set out to do ie create distance between NATO boundaries and Russia.

Why doesn't he do that?

[Florentine_Pogen]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/oct/14/elon-musk-spacex-no-longer-fund-starlink-internet-ukraine

"Elon Musk’s SpaceX has said it cannot afford to continue to donate satellite internet to Ukraine and has asked the US government to pick up the bill, according to a report, as the relationship between the billionaire and Kyiv breaks down.

“We are not in a position to further donate terminals to Ukraine, or fund the existing terminals for an indefinite period of time,” SpaceX’s director of government sales wrote, in a letter seen by CNN.

In a separate letter reported by CNN, an external consultant working for the company told the Pentagon: “SpaceX faces terribly difficult decisions here. I do not think they have the financial ability to provide any additional terminals or service.”

[DeeTillEhDeh]

It will be interesting to see what's coming in Kherson - seems like the Russian collaborator administration are preparing an evacuation but the Ukrainian military have also said people should leave.
There doesn't seem to have been signfiicant advances in a few days, seems like Ukraine are reorganising for an attack.
If Russia don't retreat from the major cities, it will be a dilemma for what Ukraine are to do - Kherson is a little smaller than Mariupol but a battle for it would be catastrophic for the civilians, for the city's infrastructure and would cost a lot of lives on both sides.

I said yesterday that the time frame for another assault was quite narrow - if they are going to take Kherson it need to be done in the next week or so.

[ICTChris]

A Russian student bar is having a Halloween party - the poster featuresPennywise from It holding a draft notice.

[TxRover]

5 minutes ago, DeeTillEhDeh said:

48 minutes ago, ICTChris said:

It will be interesting to see what's coming in Kherson - seems like the Russian collaborator administration are preparing an evacuation but the Ukrainian military have also said people should leave.
There doesn't seem to have been signfiicant advances in a few days, seems like Ukraine are reorganising for an attack.
If Russia don't retreat from the major cities, it will be a dilemma for what Ukraine are to do - Kherson is a little smaller than Mariupol but a battle for it would be catastrophic for the civilians, for the city's infrastructure and would cost a lot of lives on both sides.

I said yesterday that the time frame for another assault was quite narrow - if they are going to take Kherson it need to be done in the next week or so.

With the Russians focused on Kherson, now would be the time to drive southeast. A successful crossing of the Dnipro would threaten the nuclear plant that Putin wants to add to the Russian grid,  and break forces into open areas again. While very risky, running supplies across a waterway, the large Russian forces concentration in Kherson would then be faced with being potentially cut off completely. A quick drive down the east bank would reach damaged bridges that would allow relatively quick improvements in supply for an attacking force, and require immediate Russian withdrawal to save their forces.

While I doubt Ukraine has the supplies or equipment to actually do this, it would be a stunning coup.

[Dev]

1 hour ago, TxRover said:

Doubtful. Strategic bombers attempting to penetrate NATO airspace would be a catastrophic failure, and stand-off missiles (if any are left) can be fired from further away than where those bombers currently are based. This is a pure posturing event, allows a few flights around the edges of NATO airspace to rattle a few cages.

Russia also has submarines but it is a clear threat no matter that it should be capable of being dealt with at Nato level. Conversely they, the planes, would be vulnerable if Russia made a wrong move elsewhere. Nuclear Chess.

[Dev]

1 hour ago, ICTChris said:

It will be interesting to see what's coming in Kherson - seems like the Russian collaborator administration are preparing an evacuation but the Ukrainian military have also said people should leave.

There doesn't seem to have been signfiicant advances in a few days, seems like Ukraine are reorganising for an attack.

If Russia don't retreat from the major cities, it will be a dilemma for what Ukraine are to do - Kherson is a little smaller than Mariupol but a battle for it would be catastrophic for the civilians, for the city's infrastructure and would cost a lot of lives on both sides.

The supplies situation to and around Kherson and the Crimea will be difficult for the foreseeable future so this, presumably, must influence the Russian military decision making. If their supply chain is strangled then they will be sitting ducks over the course of the winter and the alternative to the Kerson Bridge, i.e. road convoys heading along the north side of the Sea of Azov would also seem to be vulnerable.

There is some speculation on the internet (so beware) that The Ukraine is more advanced territorially around Kherson and the Dnieper River area up to Novaya Kakhovka than has been claimed publicly. Since the main Kharkiv advances Ukraine does seem to be waiting to make announcements of territorial changes until areas have been secured, cleared and are 100% under its' control. Journalists have been kept away too.

Given the apparent likelihood of Ukraine "pressure" on Kherson and the Crimea I wonder if, instead, they will attack  and try to cut off the supply lines along the north side of the Sea of Azov i.e. from the area around Zaporizhzhya down to Melitopol / Berdyansk. This might, in theory, allow the Kherson Oblast & Crimea to be severed from its' supply chains and isolated. The Zaporizhya Nuclear Power Station would be cut off from the east too. The Kerch Bridge attack (if it was by Ukraine) would then show up as the first part of a two pronged attack to deal with Crimea/Kherson/Nuclear Power Station at one go. This would also create a new front against the south of the Donetsk/Luhansk territories - would that be wise?

The net effect of the above, if it worked, would be to starve out the Russians but it would be extreme for the civilians. However, Russia seems to be wanting to deport them in any case so maybe there is no choice. A siege rather than out and out warfare via missiles etc?

Edited October 14, 2022 by Dev
.

[LongTimeLurker]

32 minutes ago, TxRover said:

With the Russians focused on Kherson, now would be the time to drive southeast. A successful crossing of the Dnipro would threaten the nuclear plant that Putin wants to add to the Russian grid,  and break forces into open areas again. While very risky, running supplies across a waterway, the large Russian forces concentration in Kherson would then be faced with being potentially cut off completely. A quick drive down the east bank would reach damaged bridges that would allow relatively quick improvements in supply for an attacking force, and require immediate Russian withdrawal to save their forces.

While I doubt Ukraine has the supplies or equipment to actually do this, it would be a stunning coup.

Would it not make more sense to clear the other bank of the Dniepr starting from north of Melitopol and Tokmak where the Ukrainians are already on the other bank? There are plenty of intact bridges firmly under Ukrainian control in the cities of Zaporizhzhia and Dnipro.  If the Ukrainians were able to advance down to the Sea of Azov from there all points further west under Russian occupation would have to be supplied over a less than fully functional Kerch bridge, which hopefully will become even less functional at some point in future.

[Detournement]

I wonder why?

The Germans are a punchline at the moment. 

[DeeTillEhDeh]

The supplies situation to and around Kherson and the Crimea will be difficult for the foreseeable future so this, presumably, must influence the Russian military decision making. If their supply chain is strangled then they will be sitting ducks over the course of the winter and the alternative to the Kerson Bridge, i.e. road convoys heading along the north side of the Sea of Azov would also seem to be vulnerable.
There is some speculation on the internet (so beware) that The Ukraine is more advanced territorially around Kherson and the Dnieper River area up to Novaya Kakhovka than has been claimed publicly. Since the main Kharkiv advances Ukraine does seem to be waiting to make announcements of territorial changes until areas have been secured, cleared and are 100% under its' control. Journalists have been kept away too.
Given the apparent likelihood of Ukraine "pressure" on Kherson and the Crimea I wonder if, instead, they will attack  and try to cut off the supply lines along the north side of the Sea of Azov i.e. from the area around Zaporizhzhya down to Melitopol / Berdyansk. This might, in theory, allow the Kherson Oblast & Crimea to be severed from its' supply chains and isolated. The Zaporizhya Nuclear Power Station would be cut off from the east too. The Kerch Bridge attack (if it was by Ukraine) would then show up as the first part of a two pronged attack to deal with Crimea/Kherson/Nuclear Power Station at one go. This would also create a new front against the south of the Donetsk/Luhansk territories - would that be wise?
The net effect of the above, if it worked, would be to starve out the Russians but it would be extreme for the civilians. However, Russia seems to be wanting to deport them in any case so maybe there is no choice. A siege rather than out and out warfare via missiles etc?

Melitopol would seem the obvious choice as the Russians have allegedly been struggling there with partisan activity.

[Detournement]

Why would just driving from Rostov be more 'vulnerable' than any other route on either side of the frontline? 

The bridge is open to reduced traffic as well so the attack on it didn't make much difference. 

Edited October 14, 2022 by Detournement

[ICTChris]

Russia has opened a criminal case into some of the popular Telegram war bloggers - Igor Girkin, Grey Zone and War Gonzo apparently.  Girkin hasn't posted in a few days, unusual for him.

These channels gave out honest information about the situation on the ground, perhaps someone has realised that this could be weaponised against them.  One Wagner linked channel was hit with a HIMARS strike after it's editor posted photos of their headquarters near the front line and it was geolocated.

Edited to add - This is, of course, being reported by another Russian Telegram channel so who knows.

Edited October 14, 2022 by ICTChris

[Detournement]

The War Gonzo main guy was at the ceremony that announced the 4 regions joining Russia so it would be some turn around for him.

Most of the stuff on Russian Telegram comes from the DPR and LPR militias, the RAF have stricter rules. This might be a sign the miltias are going to be absorbed/disbanded by the new General in charge. 

The Sputkin Telegram channel has been blocked for UK phones even with a VPN so the military channels will probably be unavailable here soon as well. 

 

 

Edited October 14, 2022 by Detournement

[LongTimeLurker]

 

[ICTChris]

Power plant in Belgorod is on fire, electricity out to parts of the city.

[dorlomin]

3 hours ago, ICTChris said:

Russia has opened a criminal case into some of the popular Telegram war bloggers - Igor Girkin, Grey Zone and War Gonzo apparently.  Girkin hasn't posted in a few days, unusual for him.

Gerasimov and Shoigu still have their jobs. Kadyrov was arse clenchingly nice about Putin about a week ago. So who ever he and Progihozin were running their mouths off for seems to have lost an internal battle in the Siloviki. Their chief propagandists are now looking at arrest. Russian politics has been a by word for opacity for over a century. But it seems who ever it was that pushed for mobilisation and escalation may have lost place in the pecking order and now cannot protect their capo's. Then again it may be a totally different story. 

Quote

1: Why are you in jail?
2: I supported Wargonzo!
1: Thats crazy Im here because I was against Wargonzo
2: And why are you here #3?
3: I am Wargonzo.

Also

Quote

Kremlin political intrigues are comparable to a bulldog fight under a rug. An outsider only hears the growling, and when he sees the bones fly out from beneath it is obvious who won

Possibly a false quote but attributed to Churchill. 

[Detournement]

How to lose a war without firing a shot.