Russian invasion of Ukraine

[ICTChris]

40 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

Igor Girkin explains from his jail cell why he'd make a better president than Putin. (google translation)

Girkin's wife was using their Telegram channel to complain that he is being held alongside Ukrainians who were captured in Mariupol, which is pretty funny tbh.

 

[vikingTON]

1 hour ago, Newbornbairn said:

Funny how talk of ceasefires only crop up when the Ukrainians are doing well. 

Funny how talk of Ukrainians are doing well neglects to check the calendar on this current 'decisive spring offensive'. 

[ICTChris]

Zelensky has stated that a new Ukrainian produced long range weapon hit a target 700 km away.  Presumably that's the Pskov attack.

[TxRover]

9 hours ago, virginton said:

Funny how talk of Ukrainians are doing well neglects to check the calendar on this current 'decisive spring offensive'. 

Lots of stoppages for injuries, the fourth official indicated about 216,000 minutes of added time.

[LongTimeLurker]

7 hours ago, TxRover said:

Lots of stoppages for injuries, the fourth official indicated about 216,000 minutes of added time.

Southern Ukraine needs plenty of irrigation from the Dnieper that won't be happening now the Kakhovka dam is gone and Crimea isn't exactly famed for its harsh winters so the mud season may not be so much of a factor in and around Tokmak as it is somewhere like Bakhmut. Guess we'll find out in a few weeks what the story is that way.

[ICTChris]

19 hours ago, ICTChris said:

Zelensky has stated that a new Ukrainian produced long range weapon hit a target 700 km away.  Presumably that's the Pskov attack.

It is now said that the Pskov attack drones were launched from within Russia itself and were the Australian cardboard drones discussed earlier in the week.

There's also footage of Russian attack helicopters being used to interdict (or attempt to) Ukrainian drones over Crimea.  This could be important as attack helicopters had some successes against the Ukrainian offensive in the South and any diversion of them to anti-drone duty could assist Ukrainian offensive operations.

[ICTChris]

 

 

[TxRover]

The slow but steady Ukrainian advance has now placed the rail link through Tokmak within effective HIMARS range, and will soon place it within tube artillery range. This is the sole remaining rail link to the whole western extent of the Russian positions north of Crimea outwith the Kerch bridge. Additionally, the M14 highway, the only real high capacity roadway to the same area is getting perilously close to HIMARS range. If the Ukrainian forces can establish fire control over these two routes, it’s doubtful the Russians can remain north of Crimea itself, and their ability to hold Crimea will be in question due to supply concerns.

[LongTimeLurker]

Think Tokmak isn't as important as you maybe think it is on rail. Kerch to Melitopol to Nova Kakhovka or Enerhodar, and Kerch to Armiansk to Oleshky will still be doable for the Russians regardless of what happens at Tokmak. The sea drone only took out the Kerch road bridge not the railway. The reason the town of Vuhledar was such a big deal a few months back is that the Ukrainians have been able to cut the rail line west from Donetsk to Tokmak by artillery fire near there. Regardless of that though the Russians can still use a port at Berdiansk to hook into rail transport east of Tokmak. Don't think there is any sudden magic bullet until the Ukrainians can get a lot closer to Melitopol than they are now. The main reason for optimism appears to be more that they are slowly working their way through all the fortifications that the Russians painstakingly built to secure the land bridge so the pace of their advance might pick up if/when that's out of the way.

Edited September 1, 2023 by LongTimeLurker

[TxRover]

7 hours ago, LongTimeLurker said:

Think Tokmak isn't as important as you maybe think it is on rail. Kerch to Melitopol to Nova Kakhovka or Enerhodar, and Kerch to Armiansk to Oleshky will still be doable for the Russians regardless of what happens at Tokmak. The sea drone only took out the Kerch road bridge not the railway. The reason the town of Vuhledar was such a big deal a few months back is that the Ukrainians have been able to cut the rail line west from Donetsk to Tokmak by artillery fire near there. Regardless of that though the Russians can still use a port at Berdiansk to hook into rail transport east of Tokmak. Don't think there is any sudden magic bullet until the Ukrainians can get a lot closer to Melitopol than they are now. The main reason for optimism appears to be more that they are slowly working their way through all the fortifications that the Russians painstakingly built to secure the land bridge so the pace of their advance might pick up if/when that's out of the way.

Disagree. The Kerch rail bridge was damaged in the first attack, and was operating at reduced weight capacity for several months. The more recent attacks seem to have been directed at the road spans, perhaps to bring the fight home to the Russian people. When they could vacation in Crimea without worrying about passing checkpoints and seeming damage to the bridge, it was one thing, now they’ve been told to take a land route and plan for checkpoints that should only take 10 or so minutes each to clear. I suspect when the rail line is decisively cut, the Kerch rail spans will see strenuous efforts at hitting them and compromising Russian capacity to use trains to deliver heavy loads of equipment or supplies.

The likelihood of rail connections bridging the small open areas of missing track south of Donetsk, and thus avoiding the Vuhledar threat, are pretty good, and the Vuhledar threat is also limited because placing tube artillery that close to the front in a salient is a long term losing proposition. Even now, it’s an intermittent threat that the Ukrainians have against the railway in that area.

A seldom considered side aspect of the Kerch bridge and rail access issue is that of large military equipment. If the Russians have to pull back from Crimea, they could find themselves unable to take some large equipment with them if the rail and road links are severed or damaged. They would be reduced to having to risk their landing ships, or trying to make ferries work. Given the sea drone and land launched missile threat, neither is an enjoyable idea for the Russian Navy.

[Jacksgranda]

20 hours ago, LongTimeLurker said:

Think Tokmak isn't as important as you maybe think it is on rail. Kerch to Melitopol to Nova Kakhovka or Enerhodar, and Kerch to Armiansk to Oleshky will still be doable for the Russians regardless of what happens at Tokmak. The sea drone only took out the Kerch road bridge not the railway. The reason the town of Vuhledar was such a big deal a few months back is that the Ukrainians have been able to cut the rail line west from Donetsk to Tokmak by artillery fire near there. Regardless of that though the Russians can still use a port at Berdiansk to hook into rail transport east of Tokmak. Don't think there is any sudden magic bullet until the Ukrainians can get a lot closer to Melitopol than they are now. The main reason for optimism appears to be more that they are slowly working their way through all the fortifications that the Russians painstakingly built to secure the land bridge so the pace of their advance might pick up if/when that's out of the way.

 

12 hours ago, TxRover said:

Disagree. The Kerch rail bridge was damaged in the first attack, and was operating at reduced weight capacity for several months. The more recent attacks seem to have been directed at the road spans, perhaps to bring the fight home to the Russian people. When they could vacation in Crimea without worrying about passing checkpoints and seeming damage to the bridge, it was one thing, now they’ve been told to take a land route and plan for checkpoints that should only take 10 or so minutes each to clear. I suspect when the rail line is decisively cut, the Kerch rail spans will see strenuous efforts at hitting them and compromising Russian capacity to use trains to deliver heavy loads of equipment or supplies.

The likelihood of rail connections bridging the small open areas of missing track south of Donetsk, and thus avoiding the Vuhledar threat, are pretty good, and the Vuhledar threat is also limited because placing tube artillery that close to the front in a salient is a long term losing proposition. Even now, it’s an intermittent threat that the Ukrainians have against the railway in that area.

A seldom considered side aspect of the Kerch bridge and rail access issue is that of large military equipment. If the Russians have to pull back from Crimea, they could find themselves unable to take some large equipment with them if the rail and road links are severed or damaged. They would be reduced to having to risk their landing ships, or trying to make ferries work. Given the sea drone and land launched missile threat, neither is an enjoyable idea for the Russian Navy.

I suppose we'll just have to wait until somebody who knows what they are talking about comes along...

[LongTimeLurker]

Nauseated that you would take a cheap shot at me like that. 

[TxRover]

28 minutes ago, Jacksgranda said:

 

I suppose we'll just have to wait until somebody who knows what they are talking about comes along...

Wait, I though this was a discussion forum…you want knowledge…better get over to Mumsnet.

[LongTimeLurker]

The British class system does that to some people basically. Unless you sound like Kate Adie you are only supposed to be interested in stuff like football, page 3 and the Grand National.

[Sergeant Wilson]

Fucking Hell!

[LongTimeLurker]

Meanwhile back on topic:

Kind of begs the question of why these were not supplied along with these:

Before the Zaporizhzhia offensive started that the Americans apparently think is proceeding too slowly.

[The Other Foot]

Is there any chance whatsoever that, if @virginton had been around during WWII, he wouldn’t have been a brown shirt? 

[Silvio Tattiescone]

2 hours ago, The Other Foot said:

Is there any chance whatsoever that, if @virginton had been around during WWII, he wouldn’t have been a brown shirt? 

Little Lord Hee Haw 

[TxRover]

5 hours ago, The Other Foot said:

Is there any chance whatsoever that, if @virginton had been around during WWII, he wouldn’t have been a brown shirt? 

Quisling.

[ICTChris]

Ukrainian commanders have been openly stating that they have breached the first line of defence around Robotyne and are having some successes against the second line.

There are still a lot of unknowns and also some definitions of what counts as the first lines etc but it seems like the breach has been made and Ukraine are now trying to exploit it.  Assume pace will continue to be slow.

Also seen some chat that Ukraine will be starting to use Abrams tanks this month, with training completed and delivery confirmed.  Not sure the volumes of Abrams will make a massive difference but worth noting anyway.