Monkey Tennis Posted July 25, 2022 Share Posted July 25, 2022 1 minute ago, gannonball said: With Leicester in the EPL though they had a budget which for fighting relegation really when you relate them to others in the league. For them to win it they would have needed half a dozen teams who would consider themselves to be at least outside title contenders to have an off season where is up here it’s really only two. It would still be monumental for a team like Aberdeen/Hearts to win it but it wouldn’t be on the same shock level as Leicester winning the EPL that season imo, and the odds would reflect this. Have a look at the wee clip CoF posted earlier in the thread. It shows that the gulf a Leicester have to bridge is nothing like as vast as that any non-OF side would need to. The gap is of an entirely different order. What Leicester did was remarkable, in that they overcame many wealthier clubs. However, they didn't get above any who were literally spending billions in wages, which would be the equivalent of what a Scottish side would need to do with regard to our two top sides. It's the scale of the gulf in spending which is so grotesque in Scotland. Nothing remotely like it exists in England. 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ahemps Posted July 25, 2022 Share Posted July 25, 2022 Just now, gannonball said: With Leicester in the EPL though they had a budget which for fighting relegation really when you relate them to others in the league. For them to win it they would have needed half a dozen teams who would consider themselves to be at least outside title contenders to have an off season where is up here it’s really only two. It would still be monumental for a team like Aberdeen/Hearts to win it but it wouldn’t be on the same shock level as Leicester winning the EPL that season imo, and the odds would reflect this. Wages is what wins leagues and determines how competitive they are. The gap between top and bottom in England is less than 5x the amount. The gap in Scotland between 1st and 3rd is more than 5x times the amount. It would be a far bigger shock for anyone outwith the OF to win the league than Leicester doing it. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Willie adie Posted July 25, 2022 Author Share Posted July 25, 2022 Back in 1985 obviously we had yet to see the Souness era start but even then Hearts, Dundee Utd and Aberdeen were still top sides and all three had runs to at least last 8 in Europe within the next 4 years, I hope a provincial club can win it in future but I can't see anything changing until they are either out of the league or a club is bought over and millions thrown at it 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gannonball Posted July 25, 2022 Share Posted July 25, 2022 (edited) 15 minutes ago, ahemps said: Wages is what wins leagues and determines how competitive they are. The gap between top and bottom in England is less than 5x the amount. The gap in Scotland between 1st and 3rd is more than 5x times the amount. It would be a far bigger shock for anyone outwith the OF to win the league than Leicester doing it. it all depends who for me and the bookies would agree. A quick look and a team like Everton are 500/1 to win the EPL this season which I think have much the same expectancy level as Leicester had the season they won it. Contrast to Hearts who are at 80/1 to win the SPFL this season. As huge as the wage difference is now between Celtic/Sevco and the rest both could have pretty terrible seasons which is why Hearts are at 80/1. For Everton they need a lot more teams to all do that and all that happening in one season is less likely. Edited July 25, 2022 by gannonball 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VincentGuerin Posted July 25, 2022 Share Posted July 25, 2022 22 minutes ago, gannonball said: With Leicester in the EPL though they had a budget which for fighting relegation really when you relate them to others in the league. For them to win it they would have needed half a dozen teams who would consider themselves to be at least outside title contenders to have an off season where is up here it’s really only two. It would still be monumental for a team like Aberdeen/Hearts to win it but it wouldn’t be on the same shock level as Leicester winning the EPL that season imo, and the odds would reflect this. That's not the financial reality. As others have pointed out, Leicester had less of a financial gulf to overcome than, say, Hearts do. There's also the issue of other clubs helping out. If Leicester want to overhaul Man City, then they need other clubs to take points from Man City. Fortunately for Leicester, Man City play about ten league games a season against clubs with sort of comparable wage budgets to their own. There's huge potential for the clubs above Leicester to cut each other's throats. If Hearts want to overhaul Celtic, how do they do that, given that Celtic only play four games a season against a side with a comparable wage bill? Where do Celtic drop points to allow us the chance to keep up? It would be a far bigger deal for Hearts to win the league than it was for Leicester. Even if poorly-informed media opinions don't tell us that. Old Firm fans and journalists who make out other clubs should be competing better are just ignoring the reality of the situation. And I understand why. When you actually take it in you realise just how pointless the Old Firm's games are and how low the bar to success is for them. 13 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monkey Tennis Posted July 25, 2022 Share Posted July 25, 2022 1 minute ago, gannonball said: it all depends who for me and the bookies would agree. A quick look and a team like Everton are 500/1 to win the EPL this season which I think have much the same expectancy level as Leicester had the season they won it. Contrast to Hearts who are at 80/1 to win the SPFL this season. As huge as the wage difference is now between Celtic/Sevco and the rest both could have pretty terrible seasons which is why Heatys are at 80/1. For Everton they need a lot more teams to all do that. And yet, Leicester did win it. Meanwhile, in the the spell since Aberdeeen won here, which is approaching four decades long, nine English clubs have, I think, won it. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free beer Posted July 25, 2022 Share Posted July 25, 2022 I remember it well! It won't happen until another Fergie materialises. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phillips455 Posted July 25, 2022 Share Posted July 25, 2022 1 minute ago, free beer said: I remember it well! It won't happen until another Fergie materialises. You also have to remember that this was back when a win only got you 2 points. Now its 3 points which makes wins even more impactful. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheScarf Posted July 25, 2022 Share Posted July 25, 2022 The worst thing about this is that the Scottish media revel in the fact that Celtic or Rangers will win the title every year. 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ahemps Posted July 25, 2022 Share Posted July 25, 2022 13 minutes ago, gannonball said: it all depends who for me and the bookies would agree. A quick look and a team like Everton are 500/1 to win the EPL this season which I think have much the same expectancy level as Leicester had the season they won it. Contrast to Hearts who are at 80/1 to win the SPFL this season. As huge as the wage difference is now between Celtic/Sevco and the rest both could have pretty terrible seasons which is why Hearts are at 80/1. For Everton they need a lot more teams to all do that and all that happening in one season is less likely. According to the bookies Everton are the 14th most likely team to win the league. In Scotland Dundee Utd who are the 5th most likely team are the same odds at 500/1. After about 50/1 with the bookies do they odds really mean anything? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gannonball Posted July 25, 2022 Share Posted July 25, 2022 6 minutes ago, VincentGuerin said: That's not the financial reality. As others have pointed out, Leicester had less of a financial gulf to overcome than, say, Hearts do. There's also the issue of other clubs helping out. If Leicester want to overhaul Man City, then they need other clubs to take points from Man City. Fortunately for Leicester, Man City play about ten league games a season against clubs with sort of comparable wage budgets to their own. There's huge potential for the clubs above Leicester to cut each other's throats. If Hearts want to overhaul Celtic, how do they do that, given that Celtic only play four games a season against a side with a comparable wage bill? Where do Celtic drop points to allow us the chance to keep up? It would be a far bigger deal for Hearts to win the league than it was for Leicester. Even if poorly-informed media opinions don't tell us that. Old Firm fans and journalists who make out other clubs should be competing better are just ignoring the reality of the situation. And I understand why. When you actually take it in you realise just how pointless the Old Firm's games are and how low the bar to success is for them. 4 minutes ago, Monkey Tennis said: And yet, Leicester did win it. Meanwhile, in the the spell since Aberdeeen won here, which is approaching four decades long, nine English clubs have, I think, won it. I have no doubt Hearts winning would be monumental. However I think there is also a discussion that the next tranch of clubs who generally have more finances than the rest - Hearts, Hibs Aberdeen as a whole have been ran pretty poorly for the past 20 plus years. Anyway I think regarding the whole Leicester thing we are just covering old ground here with people just using different angles to prove their point which is more an opinion really and I include myself in that. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monkey Tennis Posted July 25, 2022 Share Posted July 25, 2022 8 minutes ago, free beer said: I remember it well! It won't happen until another Fergie materialises. Nonsense. Peak Alex Ferguson would be quite unable to compete with the relative wealth the OF have today. Suggesting he would is just to play the OF's game in claiming that the others just need to up their game. The landscape Ferguson experienced as a manager in Scotland, is not remotely comparable to that which exists currently. 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monkey Tennis Posted July 25, 2022 Share Posted July 25, 2022 1 minute ago, gannonball said: However I think there is also a discussion that the next tranch of clubs who generally have more finances than the rest - Hearts, Hibs Aberdeen as a whole have been ran pretty poorly for the past 20 plus years. Whereas Rangers have been run magnificently? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VincentGuerin Posted July 25, 2022 Share Posted July 25, 2022 8 minutes ago, free beer said: I remember it well! It won't happen until another Fergie materialises. I don't think even Sir Alex would be able to come close to what he did in an era with this level of financial disparity and the Bosman rule. In the modern world, Aberdeen probably don't even win the 1979-80 title. Leaving aside that financially the gulf would be fucking huge now, if Aberdeen had such a season Celtic would come in in January for Archibald, Jarvie, or Strachan etc and the whole thing falls apart. Then that summer there's a mass exodus to the English Premier League and Aberdeen don't challenge again. Ferguson did amazing things. But you couldn't do it now. You wouldn't be able to build such a comparatively strong side, and you'd have absolutely no chance of keeping it together. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monkey Tennis Posted July 25, 2022 Share Posted July 25, 2022 6 minutes ago, TheScarf said: The worst thing about this is that the Scottish media revel in the fact that Celtic or Rangers will win the title every year. Entirely this. That's what we're all up against and it just acts to recruit more people from all over our country to support them. It sickens me. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VincentGuerin Posted July 25, 2022 Share Posted July 25, 2022 4 minutes ago, gannonball said: However I think there is also a discussion that the next tranch of clubs who generally have more finances than the rest - Hearts, Hibs Aberdeen as a whole have been ran pretty poorly for the past 20 plus years. Celtic have also been run pretty badly. It's what allowed them to go from a seemingly bullet-proof position to failing to win ten in a row. We get this angle a lot. Clubs should show more ambition. They should be 'run better'. What does this actually mean? What's the practical application of this? You can't spend a lot on wages, so you need to take time building a side. Bosman allows the Old Firm to take our better players for free after we work to develop them (Souttar). If we over-spend, we get criticised for risking the future of the club, and plenty of Scottish clubs have had financial crises, but if we build slowly and live within our means then we can't win and are criticised for not having ambition. What would you have Hearts do differently, for example? What's your examples of our failings? 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gannonball Posted July 25, 2022 Share Posted July 25, 2022 6 minutes ago, ahemps said: According to the bookies Everton are the 14th most likely team to win the league. In Scotland Dundee Utd who are the 5th most likely team are the same odds at 500/1. After about 50/1 with the bookies do they odds really mean anything? Not sure what you are getting at regarding the first bit but as for second I would say yes as the odds for a rank outsider to win a league now have been slashed because of Leicester who were 2500/1 or something silly like that that season. The highest for this season is 1500/1 (Bournemouth) who would be an even bigger shock now despite the odds now not reflecting that. 2 minutes ago, Monkey Tennis said: Whereas Rangers have been run magnificently? In my opinion, yes 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ahemps Posted July 25, 2022 Share Posted July 25, 2022 Just now, gannonball said: I have no doubt Hearts winning would be monumental. However I think there is also a discussion that the next tranch of clubs who generally have more finances than the rest - Hearts, Hibs Aberdeen as a whole have been ran pretty poorly for the past 20 plus years. Anyway I think regarding the whole Leicester thing we are just covering old ground here with people just using different angles to prove their point which is more an opinion really and I include myself in that. Have Hearts, Hibs and Aberdeen been run 'really badly'? Are they not just on par for most normal clubs where they have good and bad seasons. In the last 25yrs they have on average had the 3rd-5th points tally (excluding Inverness but they have been in the league half that time, kudos to them). So they have on average finished where you would expect them too. They have also all won at least 1 trophy. So they have done exactly what you would expect, just because they don't finish 3rd-5th every year doesn't mean they have performed badly over a longer period. https://www.myfootballfacts.com/world-football/scottish-football/scottish_premier_league_points/ The gap between these 3 clubs and the rest is only a slight advantage that allows other clubs to compete with them, it is not the unsurmountable advantage that the OF have. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paranoid android Posted July 25, 2022 Share Posted July 25, 2022 There are rich teams. Then there's fifty feet of crap. Then there's us. It's an unfair game. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monkey Tennis Posted July 25, 2022 Share Posted July 25, 2022 3 minutes ago, gannonball said: In my opinion, yes The point's a real one though, isn't it? Rangers, in guises old and new could scarcely have been run any worse. First of all they spent so ridiculously that they went bust. The re-birth limped up the divisions falteringly, wasting money, treating us all to the joy of the banter years. And yet, they've reached their inevitable, currently strong position. That's just because of their size and their spending power. That will always see the two of them emerge on top. The scale of the advantage is such that even when they make a mess of it, their power endures. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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