US Presidential Election 2024

[Freedom Farter]

Trump winning would be bad for this.

[Fullerene]

On 01/07/2024 at 13:18, BFTD said:

The part of me that wants to see the world burn is disappointed that we won't get to see Hillary v The Donald II.

What's Al Gore up to these days? They were desperate to get him to run again for a while.

Edit: f**k, I just realised that Jimmy Carter is still alive, only served one term, and is more popular now than ever.

The Dead Pool mention Jimmy Carter almost constantly. 

I suspect the Secret Service monitor the thread for any sign of ill intent.

[O'Kelly Isley III]

4 hours ago, TxRover said:

And 538 calls it a near tie…it’s all irrelevant until within a month or so.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/

You are a valued commentator Tx but I fear you are not reading the room.  A month out from the US election with Biden still in place is way, way beyond a point of no return.

And yes I well realise that at this stage there is no alternative candidate who would likely defeat Trump, but surely it would be better for the Dems to railroad someone in and try very hard to alter that situation than go down horribly and meekly with an obviously unfit (and rapidly worsening) Joe Biden.

[Granny Danger]

1 hour ago, O'Kelly Isley III said:

You are a valued commentator Tx but I fear you are not reading the room.  A month out from the US election with Biden still in place is way, way beyond a point of no return.

And yes I well realise that at this stage there is no alternative candidate who would likely defeat Trump, but surely it would be better for the Dems to railroad someone in and try very hard to alter that situation than go down horribly and meekly with an obviously unfit (and rapidly worsening) Joe Biden.

We are heading for a very dark place in our history.  The far right on the rise in Europe, Putin’s aggression in Ukraine, a genocide of the Palestinians that the world is pretending isn’t happening*, and a doddery old man’s ego handing Trump a second term in the world’s most powerful country.

As someone raised in the period following WWII I honestly never thought we’d be here again, but people seem incapable of learning.

* shout out to ROI and Spain for being willing to be that exception.

Edited July 7 by Granny Danger

[TxRover]

6 hours ago, O'Kelly Isley III said:

You are a valued commentator Tx but I fear you are not reading the room.  A month out from the US election with Biden still in place is way, way beyond a point of no return.

And yes I well realise that at this stage there is no alternative candidate who would likely defeat Trump, but surely it would be better for the Dems to railroad someone in and try very hard to alter that situation than go down horribly and meekly with an obviously unfit (and rapidly worsening) Joe Biden.

It isn’t “reading the room”, as much as understanding there is very little in the way of desire means of replacing Biden. The “calls” to replace Biden are heavily weighted toward those who effectively have no skin in the game. Without Biden’s consent, there”s almost no way to do it. With Biden’s consent, Harris gets the campaign war chest, that’s the rules they’re playing with. Even with Biden’s help, there is no (plausible) candidate that polls as well or better than Biden, and in the non-plausible realm we get to Michelle Obama.

As such, the Democrats are playing the following game: 1) Work to elect Biden 2) Get ballot questions on as many State ballots as possible that will generate turnout and votes (believing, for instance, that pro-Choice voters will also vote for Democrats/Biden 3) Setting up plans to tie up Project 2025 actions in Court (like the actions of Paxton and Co.) 4) Comprehensive support down the ballot by the DNC, where the RNC is not assisting, and also lacks funding.

This election will be an absolute shitshow. There will be legal challenges for weeks, if not months, around various aspects. There will be marches, there will be some actual riots, and there will be attempts to “massage” the Electoral College votes. For Europeans, it certainly won’t be worth staying up, it’ll be more valuable to go to bed and get up a bit early to see where the action is kicking off.

I’m mildly hopeful that the institutions of America can withhold a renewed Trump and Co assault, but far from certain. The U.S. is reaping the whirlwind of 40-60+ years of unhinged, conspiratorial beliefs that openly emerged in the 90’s on talk radio. There was a small nucleus of crackpots and racists that started this campaign after the Civil Rights movement, first with the anti-Gay crusade. As part of that, they latched onto the Religious Right as their vehicle and proceeded to build an empire by appealing to the hidden racist/bigot within many people…the need to feel better than someone. Just like Adolf, they pick small groups (gays, AIDS patients, illegal immigrants, atheists, trans, etc) to designate as responsible for all the ills of society, they just turned out to not be especially good at it. For God’s sake, Reagan issued the most sweeping immigration amnesty in the country’s history…Ronald Fucking Reagan.

Obama’s election crystallized the thought in the minds of many low information and lower income voters that “they” were coming for “their jobs”, despite the fact that immigration (legal AND illegal) is the life blood of the U.S. economy. The response was akin to the “South will rise again” bullshit that pervaded this section of the U.S. between the 50’s and the 90’s, and still shows as “Patriots” flying the battle flag of the army of Northern Virginia, and being completely incapable of recognizing the irony. The pervasive nature of the undercurrent of that N*word doesn’t belong in the “White” House is misunderstood by far too many outside the U.S., because they find it hard to believe the U.S. Is still as racist as it is. You don’t see the racists hurling abuse at black football players…it happens, but very rarely, because those are the house negros of this point of society. Status, OK, money, sure, power, wait just a minute.

Look to the police forces, at the number of shootings and use of force incidents where black or hispanic officers were involved. Even they have bought into the mindset of associating entire ethnic groups with criminals simply because of where the poverty and lack of opportunity exists. Watch a vlog about Appalachia, and where the crime is there, and you see it’s opportunity, not race, but that never gets communication. Instead you get thinly veiled new versions of the Willie Hortan ads. It’s why the cash bond system in the U.S. is as fucked up as it is, because the system likes the way it keeps those “inherently dangerous types” in jail more.

So take all that and imagine Harris atop the Democratic ticket. The damage down the ticket would be immense, and would wreck attempts to thwart Trump’s teams plans. There are, to be honest, far too many “people” who would balk at voting for a minority female candidate…Obama won, despite being black, because the country desperately wanted to see change and found a black man more palatable than a white woman. Unless Biden, Harris and the party hatch a plan to parachute in a charismatic white male, it’s run what you brung. Who the Democrats in Congress and the Democratic Governors could recommend to replace Biden other than Harris isn’t very clear…and if they did it, the defection of progressive voters due to the removal of Harris for being, well, to be honest, a minority woman, would be equally harmful as the elevation of Harris.

Just remember, politicians over here run for about two plus years…Congressional Representatives effectively campaign continually, Senators and Presidents spend about the last two years of their terms campaigning, contenders spring up directly after the previous elections. It’s not like the UK, where the whole thing is either a by-election in a places or two, or a five week campaign. The whole system here is tilted toward performative theatre, and any action you take is ammunition for your opponents, which is why the involved groups want no part of choosing a Biden replacement.

In short, enjoy the show, because anyone with half a brain in the U.S. isn’t. The unfortunate side effect is the knock on from the results here, so prepare to “enjoy” that too.

[O'Kelly Isley III]

17 minutes ago, TxRover said:

It isn’t “reading the room”, as much as understanding there is very little in the way of desire means of replacing Biden. The “calls” to replace Biden are heavily weighted toward those who effectively have no skin in the game. Without Biden’s consent, there”s almost no way to do it. With Biden’s consent, Harris gets the campaign war chest, that’s the rules they’re playing with. Even with Biden’s help, there is no (plausible) candidate that polls as well or better than Biden, and in the non-plausible realm we get to Michelle Obama.

As such, the Democrats are playing the following game: 1) Work to elect Biden 2) Get ballot questions on as many State ballots as possible that will generate turnout and votes (believing, for instance, that pro-Choice voters will also vote for Democrats/Biden 3) Setting up plans to tie up Project 2025 actions in Court (like the actions of Paxton and Co.) 4) Comprehensive support down the ballot by the DNC, where the RNC is not assisting, and also lacks funding.

This election will be an absolute shitshow. There will be legal challenges for weeks, if not months, around various aspects. There will be marches, there will be some actual riots, and there will be attempts to “massage” the Electoral College votes. For Europeans, it certainly won’t be worth staying up, it’ll be more valuable to go to bed and get up a bit early to see where the action is kicking off.

I’m mildly hopeful that the institutions of America can withhold a renewed Trump and Co assault, but far from certain. The U.S. is reaping the whirlwind of 40-60+ years of unhinged, conspiratorial beliefs that openly emerged in the 90’s on talk radio. There was a small nucleus of crackpots and racists that started this campaign after the Civil Rights movement, first with the anti-Gay crusade. As part of that, they latched onto the Religious Right as their vehicle and proceeded to build an empire by appealing to the hidden racist/bigot within many people…the need to feel better than someone. Just like Adolf, they pick small groups (gays, AIDS patients, illegal immigrants, atheists, trans, etc) to designate as responsible for all the ills of society, they just turned out to not be especially good at it. For God’s sake, Reagan issued the most sweeping immigration amnesty in the country’s history…Ronald Fucking Reagan.

Obama’s election crystallized the thought in the minds of many low information and lower income voters that “they” were coming for “their jobs”, despite the fact that immigration (legal AND illegal) is the life blood of the U.S. economy. The response was akin to the “South will rise again” bullshit that pervaded this section of the U.S. between the 50’s and the 90’s, and still shows as “Patriots” flying the battle flag of the army of Northern Virginia, and being completely incapable of recognizing the irony. The pervasive nature of the undercurrent of that N*word doesn’t belong in the “White” House is misunderstood by far too many outside the U.S., because they find it hard to believe the U.S. Is still as racist as it is. You don’t see the racists hurling abuse at black football players…it happens, but very rarely, because those are the house negros of this point of society. Status, OK, money, sure, power, wait just a minute.

Look to the police forces, at the number of shootings and use of force incidents where black or hispanic officers were involved. Even they have bought into the mindset of associating entire ethnic groups with criminals simply because of where the poverty and lack of opportunity exists. Watch a vlog about Appalachia, and where the crime is there, and you see it’s opportunity, not race, but that never gets communication. Instead you get thinly veiled new versions of the Willie Hortan ads. It’s why the cash bond system in the U.S. is as fucked up as it is, because the system likes the way it keeps those “inherently dangerous types” in jail more.

So take all that and imagine Harris atop the Democratic ticket. The damage down the ticket would be immense, and would wreck attempts to thwart Trump’s teams plans. There are, to be honest, far too many “people” who would balk at voting for a minority female candidate…Obama won, despite being black, because the country desperately wanted to see change and found a black man more palatable than a white woman. Unless Biden, Harris and the party hatch a plan to parachute in a charismatic white male, it’s run what you brung. Who the Democrats in Congress and the Democratic Governors could recommend to replace Biden other than Harris isn’t very clear…and if they did it, the defection of progressive voters due to the removal of Harris for being, well, to be honest, a minority woman, would be equally harmful as the elevation of Harris.

Just remember, politicians over here run for about two plus years…Congressional Representatives effectively campaign continually, Senators and Presidents spend about the last two years of their terms campaigning, contenders spring up directly after the previous elections. It’s not like the UK, where the whole thing is either a by-election in a places or two, or a five week campaign. The whole system here is tilted toward performative theatre, and any action you take is ammunition for your opponents, which is why the involved groups want no part of choosing a Biden replacement.

In short, enjoy the show, because anyone with half a brain in the U.S. isn’t. The unfortunate side effect is the knock on from the results here, so prepare to “enjoy” that too.

Holy shit, 'A Dark Place' doesn't begin to scrape the surface of that, but thanks for a very comprehensive reply.

[Granny Danger]

25 minutes ago, TxRover said:

It isn’t “reading the room”, as much as understanding there is very little in the way of desire means of replacing Biden. The “calls” to replace Biden are heavily weighted toward those who effectively have no skin in the game. Without Biden’s consent, there”s almost no way to do it. With Biden’s consent, Harris gets the campaign war chest, that’s the rules they’re playing with. Even with Biden’s help, there is no (plausible) candidate that polls as well or better than Biden, and in the non-plausible realm we get to Michelle Obama.

As such, the Democrats are playing the following game: 1) Work to elect Biden 2) Get ballot questions on as many State ballots as possible that will generate turnout and votes (believing, for instance, that pro-Choice voters will also vote for Democrats/Biden 3) Setting up plans to tie up Project 2025 actions in Court (like the actions of Paxton and Co.) 4) Comprehensive support down the ballot by the DNC, where the RNC is not assisting, and also lacks funding.

This election will be an absolute shitshow. There will be legal challenges for weeks, if not months, around various aspects. There will be marches, there will be some actual riots, and there will be attempts to “massage” the Electoral College votes. For Europeans, it certainly won’t be worth staying up, it’ll be more valuable to go to bed and get up a bit early to see where the action is kicking off.

I’m mildly hopeful that the institutions of America can withhold a renewed Trump and Co assault, but far from certain. The U.S. is reaping the whirlwind of 40-60+ years of unhinged, conspiratorial beliefs that openly emerged in the 90’s on talk radio. There was a small nucleus of crackpots and racists that started this campaign after the Civil Rights movement, first with the anti-Gay crusade. As part of that, they latched onto the Religious Right as their vehicle and proceeded to build an empire by appealing to the hidden racist/bigot within many people…the need to feel better than someone. Just like Adolf, they pick small groups (gays, AIDS patients, illegal immigrants, atheists, trans, etc) to designate as responsible for all the ills of society, they just turned out to not be especially good at it. For God’s sake, Reagan issued the most sweeping immigration amnesty in the country’s history…Ronald Fucking Reagan.

Obama’s election crystallized the thought in the minds of many low information and lower income voters that “they” were coming for “their jobs”, despite the fact that immigration (legal AND illegal) is the life blood of the U.S. economy. The response was akin to the “South will rise again” bullshit that pervaded this section of the U.S. between the 50’s and the 90’s, and still shows as “Patriots” flying the battle flag of the army of Northern Virginia, and being completely incapable of recognizing the irony. The pervasive nature of the undercurrent of that N*word doesn’t belong in the “White” House is misunderstood by far too many outside the U.S., because they find it hard to believe the U.S. Is still as racist as it is. You don’t see the racists hurling abuse at black football players…it happens, but very rarely, because those are the house negros of this point of society. Status, OK, money, sure, power, wait just a minute.

Look to the police forces, at the number of shootings and use of force incidents where black or hispanic officers were involved. Even they have bought into the mindset of associating entire ethnic groups with criminals simply because of where the poverty and lack of opportunity exists. Watch a vlog about Appalachia, and where the crime is there, and you see it’s opportunity, not race, but that never gets communication. Instead you get thinly veiled new versions of the Willie Hortan ads. It’s why the cash bond system in the U.S. is as fucked up as it is, because the system likes the way it keeps those “inherently dangerous types” in jail more.

So take all that and imagine Harris atop the Democratic ticket. The damage down the ticket would be immense, and would wreck attempts to thwart Trump’s teams plans. There are, to be honest, far too many “people” who would balk at voting for a minority female candidate…Obama won, despite being black, because the country desperately wanted to see change and found a black man more palatable than a white woman. Unless Biden, Harris and the party hatch a plan to parachute in a charismatic white male, it’s run what you brung. Who the Democrats in Congress and the Democratic Governors could recommend to replace Biden other than Harris isn’t very clear…and if they did it, the defection of progressive voters due to the removal of Harris for being, well, to be honest, a minority woman, would be equally harmful as the elevation of Harris.

Just remember, politicians over here run for about two plus years…Congressional Representatives effectively campaign continually, Senators and Presidents spend about the last two years of their terms campaigning, contenders spring up directly after the previous elections. It’s not like the UK, where the whole thing is either a by-election in a places or two, or a five week campaign. The whole system here is tilted toward performative theatre, and any action you take is ammunition for your opponents, which is why the involved groups want no part of choosing a Biden replacement.

In short, enjoy the show, because anyone with half a brain in the U.S. isn’t. The unfortunate side effect is the knock on from the results here, so prepare to “enjoy” that too.

Not sure if those wanting Biden gone are only those without ‘skin in the game’, there will be many who are genuinely concerned about his ability to win.

Also given his age the four months between now and November could see a further major impact on his abilities; physical and cognitive.

One thing is certain his inner circle and probably a fairy sizeable outer circle will know that if he loses then they will suddenly go from being key, well connected, well paid people to peripheral.  Even a 20% chance of Biden winning will mean a 20% chance of them keeping their jobs, salaries and influence.  They’re hardly going to be objective when offering opinions.

That’s even more the case for Hunter whose ‘protection’ will disappear if any other Democrat takes over from his father.  The fact that he is now apparently one of Biden’s closest confidants is crazy and means, amongst everything else, Biden doesn’t understand the optics or simply doesn’t care.

 

[Theroadlesstravelled]

The Ukraine - Russia war has been going on for 10 years.
If Russia taking "ownership" of that patch of rubble in East Ukraine is what will stop the war and Trump can get them to both agree then it will be a good thing.
Same if he can get Israel back out of Gaza.

You man Biden is funding both of these.

[Cheese]

Biden's old Senate campaign material.

[TxRover]

3 hours ago, Granny Danger said:

Not sure if those wanting Biden gone are only those without ‘skin in the game’, there will be many who are genuinely concerned about his ability to win.

Also given his age the four months between now and November could see a further major impact on his abilities; physical and cognitive.

One thing is certain his inner circle and probably a fairy sizeable outer circle will know that if he loses then they will suddenly go from being key, well connected, well paid people to peripheral.  Even a 20% chance of Biden winning will mean a 20% chance of them keeping their jobs, salaries and influence.  They’re hardly going to be objective when offering opinions.

That’s even more the case for Hunter whose ‘protection’ will disappear if any other Democrat takes over from his father.  The fact that he is now apparently one of Biden’s closest confidants is crazy and means, amongst everything else, Biden doesn’t understand the optics or simply doesn’t care.

 

You’re not wrong there, although I suspect Hunter Biden is pretty safe due to actions of certain Congresspersons (MTG) and double jeopardy. Add to that, if Biden loses, his political career is done, and I’d expect him to pardon Hunter anyway.

3 hours ago, Theroadlesstravelled said:

The Ukraine - Russia war has been going on for 10 years.
If Russia taking "ownership" of that patch of rubble in East Ukraine is what will stop the war and Trump can get them to both agree then it will be a good thing.
Same if he can get Israel back out of Gaza.

You man Biden is funding both of these.

Give Russia land taken by force…I see, “Peace in our time”, eh?

He’s absolutely wrong on Israel, but Trump’s camp includes those wanting to kill everyone in Gaza and/or nuke the place.

[Theroadlesstravelled]

6 hours ago, TxRover said:

You’re not wrong there, although I suspect Hunter Biden is pretty safe due to actions of certain Congresspersons (MTG) and double jeopardy. Add to that, if Biden loses, his political career is done, and I’d expect him to pardon Hunter anyway.

Give Russia land taken by force…I see, “Peace in our time”, eh?

He’s absolutely wrong on Israel, but Trump’s camp includes those wanting to kill everyone in Gaza and/or nuke the place.

It's just US militarism to pad Biden's economy. $50 billion worth.

No one cared about Crimea but Obama had The Middle East to do likewise.

[TxRover]

13 minutes ago, Theroadlesstravelled said:

It's just US militarism to pad Biden's economy. $50 billion worth.

No one cared about Crimea but Obama had The Middle East to do likewise.

And you believe that given Russia land will stop them doing it again, just want to be clear.

[TxRover]

Meanwhile, the French seem to have provided a roadmap for America to defeat Trump. Polls and pundits got more and more hysterical about the certainty of the Far Right winning as the election got closer. Just saying.

Edited July 8 by TxRover

[Granny Danger]

2 hours ago, TxRover said:

Meanwhile, the French seem to have provided a roadmap for America to defeat Trump. Polls and pundits got more and more hysterical about the certainty of the Far Right winning as the election got closer. Just saying.

You mean between now and November adopt a totally different two-stage voting system that also has with multiple candidates who are part of wider coalitions rather than single candidates?

 

In other words that’s a ridiculously stupid post.

[dirty dingus]

The only way to stop Trump winning is to stop Biden running. I don't know how doddery he is but the QAnon/Republicans campaign will go in hard about his perceived senility.

[Granny Danger]

2 hours ago, dirty dingus said:

The only way to stop Trump winning is to stop Biden running. I don't know how doddery he is but the QAnon/Republicans campaign will go in hard about his perceived senility.

As much as I despise the Republicans it is a fair election strategy to question a candidate’s capacity to do the job.  However their editing of clips giving to make him look worse is pretty bad stuff.

I was hoping common sense would prevail but it’s looking like Biden is determined to continue.  Any other candidate would need time to launch a campaign and I  reckon there’s not much time before that becomes impractical.

[Salvo Montalbano]

Given the President now has immunity from prosecution for "official actions", prescribe The Trump Organisation as a terrorist group, take our the leaders and Bingo, Bango, Bongo. (May not be an entirely serious post)

[TxRover]

5 hours ago, Granny Danger said:

You mean between now and November adopt a totally different two-stage voting system that also has with multiple candidates who are part of wider coalitions rather than single candidates?

 

In other words that’s a ridiculously stupid post.

Nope, it’s all about give and take on the Left and in the Middle. The outrage over Gaza, the outrage over this and that so I won’t vote, I’ll protest by voting for a Green/Independent/RFKJr. They showed clearly you have to work together, forgo the things you disagree with to get someone/something you are in partial agreement with over someone radically opposed to most everything you support. We’ve lost the luxury of protest voting now, we’ve lost the ability to keep demanding an exact match, and we all need to take a deep breath and vote for what we can versus Trump. That’s what the French election made clear…the real question is will enough disaffected Republicans also be willing to join the cause.

As it stands, ballot initiatives about abortion have been placed on 5 States ballots, and are moving forward in 11 more. That could be a significant matter for votes on the Democratic side. In what is effectively two party only America, it could be nearly enough, we’ll see.

Edited July 8 by TxRover

[Granny Danger]

16 minutes ago, TxRover said:

Nope, it’s all about give and take on the Left and in the Middle. The outrage over Gaza, the outrage over this and that so I won’t vote, I’ll protest by voting for a Green/Independent/RFKJr. They showed clearly you have to work together, forgo the things you disagree with to get someone/something you are in partial agreement with over someone radically opposed to most everything you support. We’ve lost the luxury of protest voting now, we’ve lost the ability to keep demanding an exact match, and we all need to take a deep breath and vote for what we can versus Trump. That’s what the French election made clear…the real question is will enough disaffected Republicans also be willing to join the cause.

As it stands, ballot initiatives about abortion have been placed on 5 States ballots, and are moving forward in 11 more. That could be a significant matter for votes on the Democratic side. In what is effectively two party only America, it could be nearly enough, we’ll see.

That has nothing to do with the French elections “offering a roadmap”.  Nothing at all.

[MazzyStar]

6 hours ago, Granny Danger said:

You mean between now and November adopt a totally different two-stage voting system that also has with multiple candidates who are part of wider coalitions rather than single candidates?

 

In other words that’s a ridiculously stupid post.

Did you expect anything else?