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DC92

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Posts posted by DC92

  1. I'm cautiously optimistic about our transfer business so far this summer, but it doesn't really feel like we're ready to hit the ground running. Pre-season results don't look great, we've got a few important players missing, and the new signings are barely in the door.

    St Johnstone have just suffered abject humiliation, but the reaction to that can go either way.

  2. Tagawa is the most interesting one so far for me.

    21/22 at Santa Clara: 5 goals (0.93 per 90 mins)

    22/23 at Santa Clara: 2 goals (0.15 per 90 mins)

    Overall: 0.38 goals per 90 mins.

    First season could be a fluke, but it's also possible his team becoming much worse in the second season (dropping from 7th to 18th of 18) hampered him.

    Regardless, he definitely seems to fit the bill as a Ginnelly replacement. Most of his goals came from playing off the shoulder and running in behind.

    I particularly like the way he bends his run for this one:

     

  3. 2 minutes ago, RandomGuy. said:

    taga.thumb.png.0125d86ec2d7f76122d02dac7ec6293a.png

    Be interesting to see how he gets on, based on this.

    Quick look suggests he doesn't do much in the build up and instead just sits on the last man making runs in behind for 90 mins.

    A budget Furuhashi to me.

    Cheers. I think a budget Furuhashi is pretty much exactly what we're after.

    Do you know how this compares to the season before? Seems like he was doing better when his team were top half.

  4. And another!

    He's been on loan in the Portuguese top flight for the last 18 months.  7 goals in 39 games isn't amazing, but it works out to a goal every 239 minutes of football, which isn't too bad.

    Interestingly, although he only scored 2 goals last season when his team finished bottom, he got 5 in 12 the season before when they were finished 7th. You'd hope it's a Shankland type situation where he'll excel in a team higher up the league.

  5. On 03/11/2022 at 19:56, HibsFan said:

    You seem to have confused this with a non-existent match thread about tonight's game. This is about Hearts' entire European campaign, which yes, as a somewhat-obsessed Hibby, I do care about. It's funny seeing your rivals lose, it's especially funny seeing them lose horrendously..

    Can confirm.

  6. 6 hours ago, DoingThe42 said:

    Always suspicious of a signing from the English leagues.

    Nobody down there dreams of playing in Scotland, so why are we the best he can do?

    27 years old, available for probably not huge money. It doesn't pass the smell test for me.

    I see someone alluding to Anthony Taylor above. He's a great example. It was suspicious that Aberdeen were able to get him in the circumstances, and he turned up to be shite. We were able to get Ollie Lee. LEt's be honest, shite. We got Jorge Grant. Again, mainly shite.

    I don't think it's a good market for us to operate in. Poor value. I'd always query why a player from down there would want to move here, and why there aren't English clubs outbidding us.

    Mostly agree with this. I'd be fairly sure the hit rate for Hearts/Hibs/Aberdeen signing from League One is poor, aside from players who previously played in Scotland like Boyce.

    "That's all we can afford". Shop somewhere else then. I don't rate the A League highly either but at we're generally targeting cheap, young players with potential from there.

    Having said that, I think even a basic centre-half would have helped us massively last season. This guy might fit that bill and he seems to be able to play out from the back a bit as well, which I think was one of the main issues with Stewart at Aberdeen.

  7. 5 hours ago, topcat(The most tip top) said:

    Ultimately we're replacing a squad player who didn't play if everyone else was available with another squad player who probably won't  play if everybody else is available.

    This isn't going to fix everything that's wrong but it's not going to ruin everything that's right

    If it's Kio you're talking about, I don't really see McGrath as being similar. Can he play CM in a two? I think that's an area we need to add another player.

    If it's Grant, my biggest issue with him is that he doesn't fit into the team. I don't see the point in replacing him with a similar player who probably isn't much better (if at all) especially given he's got two years left. If he is leaving, it'd make more sense to me to reinvest his wage in more needy areas of the squad or in types of player who fit the style of play better.

    The rumour was probably a load of shite anyway.

  8. 5 minutes ago, RandomGuy. said:

    Thats my thinking, of what ive seen of both. McGrath a bit more direct, in terms of he'll get the ball and instantly try and do something with it, so can cope central, while McKay needs the space you get out wide as it allows him more time with the ball and more chance of getting 1v1 situations with defenders. McKay is definitely better for me, FWIW, genuinely think hes one of the best players in the league but im a sucker for that type of player.

    Just took the McKay stuff from a mention on here, ive genuinely not a clue how Naismith set you up/intends to set you up, to say where McGrath might fit. If youre saying youve been after direct, proper, wide types then aye, McGrath definitely doesnt seem to be that.

    A lot of people have gone off McKay after last season, but I'm still a fan. Yeah, it's annoying that he looks a bit sullen and always does f**k all against the Old Firm, but I just wouldn't bother playing him in those games. He's still extremely useful as a flat track bully and that seems to be taken for granted now. Our home record against non-OF teams over the last two seasons is very good and he's one of the main reasons for that.

  9. 9 minutes ago, RandomGuy. said:

    Yeah how theyre used definitely affects there, so McGraths carrying figures will be up due to playing as a winger.

    But then is he only playing as a winger because he can carry the ball well?

    You tie yourself in knots thinking about it 😅

    McGrath is under-rated IMO, not as good as the hype he got years ago but better than the "penalty merchant" stuff put his way. If its Barrie McKay whos place hes apparently looking at (just based of comments on this thread, as i never saw much of you under Naismith to know how you set up), then youll probably have someone whos far more consistent but more average too.

    Fair enough. 

    Could be wrong, but is the general thinking on McGrath not that he's more effective as a #10 than out wide? Whereas I'd say McKay is better playing off the left and moving inside. The latter definitely has better assist numbers over the last couple of seasons, although I appreciate the quality of the assistee influences that..

    We've been linked to a couple of wingers this window, Silvera and Okunuki. Both direct, right-sided players who play off the left, like to dribble and chip in with goals. IIRC they both had strong numbers for winning the ball in the final third as well. Obviously we missed out on them but McGrath would seem a bit of a departure from that profile.

  10. 18 minutes ago, RandomGuy. said:

    Better than Grant, IMO, even if you exclude penalties.

    mcgrath.thumb.png.42cc6fbc6197ccb0f3a295c40689a4a2.png

    Cheers. Although are they all that different based on that?  Aside from McGrath being better at ball carrying and slightly more creative, but less "goal threat"?

    I'm not sure how it might affect the numbers, but I think Grant mostly played CM for us rather than his preferred attacking midfield. Which is my main problem, I don't really see where either of them fit in.

  11. 1 hour ago, Thenorthernlight said:

    Penalty merchant & he won’t even be that at Hearts.

    I’d be very underwhelmed if Aberdeen signed him based on the last 2 seasons.

     

    Pretty much how I see him.

    From what I can tell, he's basically Jorge Grant. Tidy player, nice passing stats, good at scoring penalties (which he won't take here), but wouldn't worry me in the slightest if he was playing for the other team. 

    Like Grant, I've also no idea how he fits in with the 4-4-2 Naismith was playing last season, so hopefully it's just Twitter shite that's grown arms and legs.

  12. Sorry to hear that. Not trying to do the Limmy bit here, but I had the slightly surreal experience of meeting him on the Aberdeen-Glasgow bus a few years ago before a Scotland game. He chatted to us most of the way down and came across as a lovely guy.

    His stories did nothing to dispel his reputation with the ladies.

  13. 37 minutes ago, craigkillie said:


    None of those things individually seem improbable, but the odds of them all happening simultaneously are very low. It's a bit like sticking on a 10 fold accumulator, even if each choice on its own seems reasonable, you don't win very often.

    There are even not entirely unreasonable scenarios where we could lose the remaining 4 matches and still finish 2nd, and those sort of outcomes have to be factored in too.

    I get that multiplying lots of numbers smaller than one makes a very small number, but 99% (implying that it's basically certain) still felt high given the reasonable prospect of dropping points in Cyprus and the lack of any guaranteed points thereafter. I thought it might be more like 90% or so.

    Mind you, having done a quick calculation based on probabilities I pulled out of my arse, it doesn't seem too far off.

    It is possible my thinking is influenced by having just watched another of my teams make a (supposed) 1 in 100 f**k-up.

  14. 8 minutes ago, Donathan said:

    The models will price in the very high likelihood of us beating Cyprus.

     

    The 99% will fall significantly if we don’t win in Cyprus but probably won’t rise very much at all if we do (not that it has much room to rise, but 98.9% probably just become 99.0% or 99.1% if we win that game)

     

    Effectively the model itself is probably baking in a c.95% chance that we’ll win in Cyprus. 

    We absolutely should win that game, but I'm not sure we take all 3 points 19 times out of 20, especially considering it'll likely be in 30-degree heat.

  15. 9 hours ago, Donathan said:

    I'd be very surprised if we don't do it now, but 99% seems ludicrously high?

    If we beat Cyprus then 99% looks fair enough. If we don't, we have two very tough fixtures and Norway have three winnable games (Georgia and Spain at home, Cyprus away) to close or overcome the gap before the final game. You'd fancy Spain to win their other games. Surely that scenario isn't 1 in 100.

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