LongTimeLurker

Sweden may not have carried on completely as usual but they definitely did not have the same lockdown policies as western European countries but still had much the same outcome as many of them on cumulative per capita mortality rates. There are legitimate questions that need to be answered in a rational scientific manner as to why that is. Brazil is a federal system so the president doesn't call the shots on everything. Think you'll find many of the states there did have relatively strict lockdowns. That's certainly what I have been hearing from people I know in Sao Paulo and Belo Horizonte. What's interesting is that the one country in Europe that took a vodka and sauna approach and has recently had massive mass demonstrations, i.e. Belarus, hasn't been a special disaster zone in eastern European terms. There are legitimate questions that need to be answered in a rational scientific manner as to why that is.

Here are the per capita cumulative mortality curves for a wide range of European countries: There are legitimate questions to be answered as to why Sweden is comparable to Spain, Italy, UK, Netherlands and Belgium on this plot despite adopting significantly different approaches to the lockdown issue. One thing most of these countries have in common compared to certain other European countries is messing up big time where care homes were concerned.

Maybe you are encountering people who have taken the time to do some reading and stayed current and are not still parroting the apocalyptic stuff that was being said on the telly six months ago based on computer modelling that has since turned out to have had severely flawed assumptions? The latest data on IFR suggests that COVID-19 is comparable to an unusually bad flu season on mortality rate in western countries and is nothing like as bad as the "Spanish flu" of 1918.

Guess that's the closest we are going to get to a Great Leap Forward from the SNP on this now that the Long March is well behind us. Be different from England by being more proactive on lockdown easing for a change. A real Cultural Revolution.

Interesting to see the apparent abrupt U-turn from Nicola Sturgeon on the circuit breaker. Looks like she received a lot of negative feedback over that as floating it in the media rather than announcing it straight away is all about gauging the reaction first. Hopefully football doesn't feature in any of the token set of measures that will be implemented as the way to still be seen to be doing something when the reality is that they are really not and are basically just hoping things peak soon for herd immunity reasons.

I wouldn't take what's in that link as gospel. What happens in Sweden over the next few months relative to what happens in western European countries that implemented strict lockdowns will provide a lot of answers in that context.

Things were so messed up back in March that there's a good chance there is relatively little pain left on getting to herd immunity. Time will tell basically. The science is far from definitively settled on that. Doing all the sensible things is the best way to look after numero uno and those closest to you through all of this.

They are almost certainly going to do that again once any temporary circuit breaker measures are lifted and things revert to doing nothing different. There is no quick easy fix on this other than reaching herd immunity either by letting things run their natural course (keeping schools, pubs, workplaces open means that will almost certainly be what unfolds over the next few weeks) or through a vaccine (which may be a very long way off).

What's the point though in big picture terms? A vaccine isn't just around the corner unless we are very lucky, so any kind of circuit breaker is just a case of kicking the can down the road for a bit. The same issues will still have to be dealt with whenever the lockdown rules are opened up until/unless there is herd immunity. More and more people are seeing through the propaganda now, so maybe try an honest intelligent discussion on this and treat the electorate like adults rather than naughty schoolchildren that need strict control by a nanny state? Something along the lines of there is more than likely not going to be a miraculous painless exit strategy available just around the corner, the economy and other health issues that have been receiving less attention than they normally would have are also very important as well so we can't keep acting as if COVID-19 is the only issue that matters. Here's what you need to do to be able to get on with something resembling normality while minimising the risks for yourself, the people you care about most and your friends and neighbours. Good luck!

Your information often appears to be several months out of date. The IFR for COVID-19 turned out to be much lower than originally feared so "massively, massively higher" no longer holds. https://swprs.org/facts-about-covid-19/

Pubs and restaurants have also been mentioned a lot and shouldn't be discounted as a factor just because not a lot was happening on new cases when the weather was warmer and the schools were still closed. The R0 number with a respiratory infection is likely to change significantly with the seasons. It's mind boggling that anybody could think that the virus mysteriously avoids schools just because that would be the most convenient outcome for the rest of us from an economic standpoint. Exceedingly few children will die of COVID is not the same thing as exceedingly few children will become infected with COVID at school and take it home to their parents.

Naw, I looked on Google and there was nothing: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/09/27/alarm-spread-covid-19-french-schools-universities/

They said that on the telly so it must be true. Sprog one comes from a home with an active COVID-19 case and goes to school and an indoors environment with no masks, social distancing or effective testing. Several other sprogs in the same class pick up the virus from sprog one, who only had very mild symptoms. What happens when the little darlings get home to their parents? Lots of social distancing or high risk interactions? Can we trust the parents not to go to work or the pub with mild symptoms when studies suggest that only 18% are actually self-isolating once symptomatic? If the politicians keep the schools and pubs open they aren't really serious about stopping the second wave and have basically decided to belatedly do what Sweden did without actually admitting it.

I'm not in the loop on this to any extent, but my understanding is that because Newtown Park is owned by the "people of Bo'ness" rather than BUFC there was no way that Linlithgow Thistle could be stopped from doing what they did. I've seen it claimed on here that if the east region had got in at tier six, the plan/understanding was for BUJFC to turn into a reserve team for BUFC along Stirling Uni lines, but that clearly isn't happening now. What BUJFC will be doing three seasons from now is far from clear, because odds on the east region south section will have folded by then for lack of numbers.

^^^read the article and it becomes clear that this is only at the most serious alert level which may never be activated. People who know the score have long since realised that Boris is going for herd immunity by stealth (ideally before Christmas) and these sorts of measures are just window dressing to obscure that from the plebs.

More to do with vaguely remembering from another recent thread what AlanCamelonfan's first Camelon game was, but no matter. Given Round 2 is scheduled for Nov 21, a January start for WoS could mean SoS/EoS/LL only in the SCC this year, if the other three leagues all start up as appears to be happening.

We are talking about different people then.

It's 9 miles by road despite 8mileBU's username. Think he works in Falkirk (AudacesFortunaJuvat stays/stayed in Camelon and worked with him), so not necessarily anything untoward with him doing that given his job would have been viewed as an essential one.

Even if they don't, Stirling Uni sets a potentially useful precedent on reserve teams now the BUs are in the LL.

Yes, there's a limit to how long I am going to spend googling for the perfect graphic on this. That's still well past the main peak in most of the countries. The USA is a bit of an exception as the most urban states with lots of public transport like NY peaked early like western Europe did, but the lower population density ones did so later. All you would see after June or so on a logarithmic y-axis scale for the European countries is a flat line extending out across the graph. Most of the important info is readily available in that plot.

That it would be lower (the important thing is that it's comparable rather than the exact details) should tell you something about the effectiveness of the UK's stricter lockdown response.

Neglects to include the curves for the UK, Italy, France, Netherlands, Belgium, Spain on the carefully cherrypicked graph because doing so would not fit the alarmist narrative being peddled.

The Annan vs Old Firm comparison and the mention that crowds at lower levels will happen at some point before anything happens with Rangers and Celtic but right now they are worried about the virus (i.e. the optics of the "second wave") shows the issue is on their radar. He is saying in the interview that Ibrox and Parkhead are unlikely to fully re-open this season but that diddy teams are likely to get crowds back.

He's basically saying they'll do it this season (things were gearing up for the SPFL's lower division October restart previously) but only when the optics of opening stuff up don't risk a backlash politically. January is a realistic timeline for the "second wave" having peaked and obviously subsided enough that the politicians will be ready to pull the trigger on more reopening. Boris and Nicola will definitely want to be seen as the hero who saved Christmas rather than the dictator from on high who cancelled it.

^^^prime example of his chronic lack of English language comprehension skills.