LongTimeLurker

Think it's abundantly clear that Ukraine did this:

The HIMARS missiles used on the Kherson bridge don't have the range so inherently has to be a larger longer range missile if that's how it was done. Also talk of Kerch bridge being built using a less sturdy approach.

Is being better than Harthill Royal and Hawick Royal Albert next season such a stretch though? Give it a couple more seasons after this one and the stronger West Lothian clubs will have moved on and the Third Division will probably be mainly traditional EoS clubs rather than ERSJFA ones.

If Vlad was stupid enough to blow up both Nordstream 1 & 2, this may be NATO's response courtesy of ATACMS sent to Ukraine in the immediate aftermath. Otherwise, if it was the domestic Ukrainian Hrim-2 it's not obvious why the Ukrainians wouldn't do it until now. Think the boat and lorry bomb theories are far-fetched as the evidence on the road bridge spans appears (happy to be told why I'm wrong) to point to two detonations, and again why wait until now if the Ukrainians always had that capacity?

Thread that's worth a read on Russian rail logistics in the occupied portions of Ukraine: Not sure why this guy is so confident that ATACMS wasn't involved on the Kerch bridge. Think how it was done is still a mystery.

They can no doubt solve that last bit by simply driving along the northern shore of the Sea of Azov via Berdyansk and Mariupol but that puts road traffic a lot closer to HIMARS and other missile systems the Ukrainians have at their disposal.

Inside job, thermite etc etc. Only slight downside for the Ukrainians is that the rail link looks like it might be more easily repaired and its the more important of the two for Russian military logistics with no alternative route available via the Donbas that isn't in range of Ukrainian artillery. Who gets to tell Vlad about it must have been an interesting dilemma in the Kremlin though.

Kirriemuir Thistle have floodlights and cover sorted already so might be a contender on licensing at some point: https://nonleaguescotland.org.uk/kirriemuir.html

Seems a bit farfetched but it's the Wall Street Journal rather than the National Inquirer:

Collapsing on the other side of the Inhulets river now as well apparently:

Problem appears to be that the terrain in Kherson oblast is as flat as a pancake and provides few natural barriers other than major rivers, so it's not easy to do something quickly on that. The problem for the Russians is they were using a river called the Inhulets as their defence line to the west but were attacked from the north along the Dniepr to the east and lost the line of defence they had been able to build in that direction back when they still had the upper hand militarily and have had nothing sensible to fall back to so far.

I've always been a wee bit skeptical about break up of Russia narratives but this could effectively turn certain mobilized units into the armed forces of the component republics and oblasts answering to local leaders as well as to Vlad. That was already happening with Chechnya to a certain extent obviously but elsewhere Russia has been functioning as a unitary state in recent years with the ethnic republics as little more than window dressing. Kadyrov with drones? Are you sure you want to do that Vladimir Vladimirovich?

Definitely not a good day for Vlad: this means they did do the general withdrawal mentioned above.

Will be interesting to see what unfolds on that. There are very few tarmac roads in that area apparently because it's covered by huge former collective farm fields so there were only two small villages/towns the Ukrainians had to take to make that entire sector untenable for the Russians:

This guy would probably be the best one to try initially:

This guy is normally sensible and level-headed on these matters: Safe to say that would be a major development. The last open rail link from Russia into the north of Luhansk oblast is at Troitske and Starobilsk. Anybody suggesting a few weeks back that there was a possibility of the Ukrainians getting anywhere near that by the end of October would no doubt have been laughed at.

Taking this guy's pronouncements at face value would not be sensible but still interesting that he would say this: suggests they were just testing to see if the West would cave into all the implied nuclear threats and tell the Ukrainians they had to make a deal. Problem for Vlad and his inner circle is that if you lead a regime staffed largely by glorified street thugs you are expected to follow through on your threats or you lose face big time.

The complaint in blue was coming from a Russian blogger who has been spinning it as a cluster bomb munition. That's probably just a sign that its use has already been having a devastating impact.

Another thrust deep into the Russian rear is reported to be happening at Kupyansk: And if there's one thing we know Vlad doesn't appreciate it's NATO supplied weaponry thrusting deep into his rear.

Death to the occupiers so nothing controversial.

It's the SPD that's in power though. The optics of German panzers manned by Ukrainian nationalists who idolise Stepan Bandera rolling into the Donbas brings back certain unfortunate historical memories but think things have reached a point where it's time for people to move on and turn the page and embrace the geopolitics of the 2020s as opposed to the 1940s. If Nordstream is gone for good the Germans very much need Ukraine to win outright now complete with Crimea's offshore gas fields and the big shale gas play between Izium and Lysychansk. Vlad is truly moronic in his decision making if he sent in the divers to the sea around Bornholm but some of his other recent decisions provide strong evidence for that being the case.

Back on topic there are rumours from Russian sources of a major Ukrainian advance in Kherson oblast today: eventually the bridges over the Dniepr being down was going to have an effect. Word was the Russian generals in the area wanted to withdraw but Vlad said nyet.

Suspect this is highly significant: