LongTimeLurker

Wonder why somebody called James O'Brien would lead with that story. Unionists will actually be quite relieved by these numbers. As usual the demographic shift has failed to live up to all the hype. Best to check out websites like Slugger O'Toole for what's really happening in NI: https://www.sluggerotoole.com/2022/09/21/what-tomorrows-census-results-will-tell-us-and-just-as-importantly-what-it-will-not/ ...The term Protestant is (as has been the case in mainland UK for most of the late sovereign’s reign) is becoming less and less relevant even for religiously observant members of what we used to call the Reformed Faith. As I argued in that review those areas which see the largest number stating they are neither Protestant nor Catholic are almost exclusively in majority Protestant areas (like North Down, 12% against an NI average of 5.6% in 2011 and 2.7% in west Belfast)...

Looks like Vlad is running out of friends...

Not a trained historian either or a sailor for that matter but don't think there's much doubt that Putin is unlikely to survive a military defeat by Ukraine either politically or physically. Hence the partial mobilisation to try to shore things up enough to be able to seize the four oblasts where the fake referenda will be held. Think that losing to the Ukrainians would actually be a lot worse for the Russian elite than losing to Japan in 1905 because Ukraine until recently was majority Russophone (including Zelensky, who was elected primarily by the more Russian speaking east and south) and provides a clear example of how there's a democratic alternative to Putin's power vertical in the post-Soviet space.

Russian sources are making it sound like the Ukrainians are making progress where Lyman is concerned:

Given Russian jails are not for the faint hearted and people viewed as traitors are unlikely to be treated gently in that context this is quite impressive: Probably needs about 100 times that number and a considerably less genteel demographic showing up before Vlad is likely to be ousted though.

Odds on they have with some of the sabotage that has been carried out on Russia's rail network close to the border. They are also known to have attacked Belgorod using helicopters:

He also as far as I can see hasn't actually committed to annexing the four oblasts where fake referenda will be held.

Others are saying it is limited to 2 million or so tops and they will only go after some of them. Looks more like the rules related to the SMO have been tightened up to make it more difficult to refuse to fight than an all out war footing in other words but really there's no easy answer on this stuff until we see what actually unfolds over the next couple of weeks.

Looks like a half measure to try to shore things up and maybe try to secure all of the Donbas by the looks of things rather than the moment an imminent blitzkreig towards Lviv was launched.

He should have mobilised months ago if he wanted to ever take Odesa, Kyiv etc. That he didn't do so but instead retreated to focus mainly on the Donbas suggests doing it comes at a heavy price he still might not be willing/able to pay.

Meanwhile no speech from Vlad. Wonder if he may have received some negative feedback on what mobilisation would do to the Russian economy:

Linfield bottled it big time recently against the Latvian club Hearts have in their Conference League group. Should have been playing in Europe during the groups stages but are headed instead to Buckie. Guess that maybe means they are more likely to field their strongest possible team for this one.

The Russians definitely lost at least one village in Luhansk oblast called Bilohorivka (close to Lysychansk) about a week ago and probably a couple more immediately south of it since then. Not the Bilohirivka circled but the one at the top of the map.

Some people are claiming Lyman has been liberated: we'll see if it is more accurate than the recent Lysychansk stuff, and if accurate whether it's the first domino in another major advance.

Suddenly calling for referenda on joining Russia after months of inactivity in that regard is a sign the two Donbas puppet states are worried about what comes next:

I guess the guy who grew up on Firs Street beside the old Shire park has completely lost interest now? That maybe leaves the long sought after second coming of Alan Mackin as the possible sketchy individual scenario. Setting aside EK vs Caley Braves, have to say that only University of Stirling looks like a strong favourite for the third round based on that draw. On the flip side all but Dalbeattie and possibly Gretna have a reasonable shot.

Rumours that Lysychansk has been liberated; seems a bit too good to be true though.

Guess the recent infrastructure attacks by cruise missiles would explain this, if it turns out to be accurate:

As difficult a draw as this round could have thrown up beyond maybe Dumbarton, Darvel and East Kilbride but should attract a big crowd and I suspect still very much winnable on a good day over 90 minutes.

Found Orla McCool's accent on Derry Girls much more distracting than anything that Lenny Henry & Co are doing in this series given they are quite clearly not trying to portray Irish people. The faux stage Irish accent is just being used as a way to distinguish the different races of Middle Earth. After a couple of minutes I got used to it. In a similar sort of way Sophia Nomvete's attempt at a Scottish accent would be problematic if she was trying to play Miss Jean Brodie or Senga fae the scheme but I don't find it difficult to deal with in the context of a female dwarf from Middle Earth.

The Ukrainians being able to plant a bomb in a government building in Luhansk must be shocking to the Russians because they have controlled that city since 2014 and it's generally viewed as being very pro-Russian. Looks like the Ukrainians are slowly getting there where Lyman is concerned (to the SE of Izium but on the far side of the floodplain of a major river). Last weekend that was already being claimed to be under Ukrainian control when people were getting a bit carried away on twitter:

In a similar vein: